The escalation of the long-smoldering Donbass crisis to the rest of Ukraine this year has had painful knock-on effects for the rest of the world, from an energy crunch in Europe to hunger in developing nations thanks to Western restrictions on Russian agro exports. In this situation, the question worth asking is: What does Russia want from Ukraine?
This coming Saturday will mark 10 months since the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, with world leaders and Western geostrategists alike warning that the conflict shows no signs of letting up, and urging for peace talks.
“I do believe that the military confrontation will go on, and I think we will have still to wait a moment in which serious negotiations for peace will be possible. I don’t see them [on] the immediate horizon,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in his year-end press conference Monday. Citing the pain being felt by Ukraine, Russia, and the world economy – including high food and energy prices, Guterres expressed “strong” hopes that a “peace solution” could be found “before the end of 2023.”
Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, a preeminent representative of the globalist wing of the US political establishment, also called for negotiations, emphasizing in an op-ed over the weekend that “the time is approaching to build on the strategic changes which have already been accomplished and to integrate them into a new structure towards achieving peace through negotiation.” Kissinger warned that the alternative, including attempts to defeat Russia militarily, could spark “another world war.” Trying to render Russia militarily “impotent” would also be a mistake, Kissinger said, pointing to Moscow’s historic role in preserving the balance of power, and its “decisive contributions to the global equilibrium.”
Washington apparently didn’t get the memo, with Congress putting the finishing touches on a $1.7 trillion budget which includes $45 billion in fresh "emergency assistance" to Ukraine, $8 billion more than what the White House had originally requested. Washington’s European allies have also promised to "do their part" by slapping a new round of self-defeating sanctions on Moscow, and agreeing to provide some €18 billion to Kiev in 2023.
What Did Russia Want in Ukraine Before the Crisis Started?
When the political and security crisis in Ukraine began nine years ago in the winter of 2013-2014, Moscow’s strategy vis-à-vis Kiev was simple. Having pulled off what seemed like a coup de grace by convincing then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to pull a 180-degree turn and join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union instead of signing an Association Agreement with the European Union, what Moscow wanted more than anything was stability in Kiev. Instead, Yanukovych got large-scale street protests in the Ukrainian capital, backed up by EU and US officials handing out cookies, cash, and behind-the-scenes political advice to protest leaders. The unrest, which included brutal, indiscriminate violence against protesters and police alike by mysterious snipers (later revealed to be Georgian mercenaries), culminated in Yanukovych’s ouster as president in a coup on February 23, 2014.
“I’m going to say now something that is not well-known,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said, recalling the events in Ukraine in early 2014 in an interview with Russian media in 2018. “At the time, our American partners reached out to us. They asked us to do everything – and I’m repeating it almost word-for-word, to stop Yanukovych from using the military, to make the opposition leave the square and administrative buildings and start carrying out the agreements on normalizing the situation. We said, ‘okay.’ The next day, there was a coup.” Asked by his interviewer whether this was the first time that the US had lied to Russia in such a way, Putin said this was “the first time” he could recall that “they were so blatant and brazen in doing it.”
After the coup, Crimea’s authorities, fearful that the mix of pro-EU and ultranationalist forces in Kiev would descend on the majority ethnic Russian peninsula to crack down on anti-coup protesters and pro-Russian sentiments, organized a snap referendum on rejoining Russia, with residents overwhelmingly voting in favor of doing so. Across eastern and southern Ukraine, from Kharkov and Donbass to Zaporozhye, Kherson, Nikolaev, and Odessa, pro-Russian protests broke out in the spring of 2014, only to be attacked and crushed by nationalists, elements of the security forces and, in Donbass’ case, by the Ukrainian Army.
What Did Russia Want From Ukraine After War Broke Out in Donbass?
In the easternmost Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, opposition to the new authorities in Kiev proved strongest, with residents forming People’s Militias and pushing back Ukrainian troops sent to crush autonomy and independence-seeking forces.
Moscow immediately expressed support for a diplomatic solution, and in July 2014, Russian, Ukrainian, Donetsk People’s Republic, and Organization for Security Co-operation in Europe officials met in the Belarusian capital of Minsk to try to put a stop to the fighting. But the bloodshed continued, and in September, Putin proposed a seven-point peace plan, including a ceasefire, the release of all prisoners, the deployment of international observers to monitor the truce, corridors for the evacuation of refugees and the delivery of humanitarian aid, and assistance to rebuild Donbass. Kiev dismissed the plan.
In February 2015, the leaders of the "Normandy Four" contact group of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France met in Minsk to sign a new, 13-point peace plan. The agreement, known as "Minsk II," outlined steps for Donbass’ reintegration into Ukraine, in exchange for broad, constitutionally-guaranteed autonomy. The treaty was never implemented by Kiev, and between 2015 and February 2022, a shaky ceasefire punctuated by regular shelling, sniper and sabotage provocations, and the occasional small-scale Ukrainian offensive to bite off another small chunk of Donbass territory continued for seven excruciating years. In the meantime, Kiev continued to build up its military power, and amended the Ukrainian constitution, formally setting the country on a course to join NATO and the European Union.
What Does Russia Want From Ukraine Now?
In late January of 2022, weeks after NATO and the US publicly rejected a pair of comprehensive security proposals laid out by Russia – which included a request that the alliance halt its eastward expansion into the ex-Soviet space, Donbass officials announced a major escalation of tensions on the line of contact, including the biggest intensification of shelling and sabotage attacks against Donbass since 2015. An evacuation of civilians to Russia was ordered.
On February 24, citing threats to Donbass’ security, and the dangers of an imminent Ukrainian full-scale invasion of the fledgling republics, Russia launched its "special military operation" in Ukraine, aimed at "demilitarizing" and "de-Nazifying" the country (i.e. removing the military danger to Donbass, and the ultra-right elements in the leadership in Kiev).
Russia outlined peace conditions in talks with Ukrainian negotiators in the spring. These included:
- Security and independence for Donbass, as well as an end to the shelling and efforts to hold the region and its 3.5+ million inhabitants in perpetual instability and uncertainty
- recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, in accordance with the results of the 2014 referendum,
- legal guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, in exchange for security guarantees. In early March, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that the conflict would stop “in a moment” if Russia’s conditions were met.
Throughout late February and early March, Russian and Ukrainian officials met multiple times, first in Belarus and then in Turkey, to try to hammer out an agreement. In September, Western media revealed that Moscow and Kiev appeared to have been on the brink of a tentative agreement, but that now ex-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson traveled to Kiev to order President Volodymyr Zelensky to break off talks with the Russians, because Putin couldn’t be trusted and the West wasn’t ready to see an end to the bloodshed. In the months that followed, the US and its NATO allies proceeded to pump up Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in arms and training assistance, raising Zelensky’s confidence that he wouldn’t have to agree to peace on Russia’s terms.
Consequently, Donbass republics and the pro-Russian administrations in Zaporozhye and Kherson held referendums on their status in September, acceding into the Russian Federation after an overwhelming majority of residents in each territory voted in favor of doing so. The people have “made their unequivocal choice,” Putin said, and Moscow wanted Kiev and its “handlers in the West” to know that “the people living in Lugansk and Donetsk, in Kherson and Zaporozhye” were now Russian citizens.
Zelensky, still confident of his support from the West, claimed earlier this month that the only way for the conflict to end would be for Russia to fall back to Ukraine’s 1991 borders. Absent that, he said, peace could only be achieved through even more Western weaponry, including modern tanks, artillery, and long-range missiles.
Last month, at a meeting with mothers of servicemen taking part in the special military operation, Putin admitted that it was a mistake not to allow Donbass to join Russia earlier, in 2014. “We…did not fully feel the mood of the people. It was impossible to understand what was happening there. Now, perhaps, it has become obvious that this reunification should have happened earlier. Maybe then there would not have been so many casualties among civilians, so many dead children,” Putin said. In 2014, the Russian president emphasized, Moscow was “sincerely” proceeding from the idea that peace in Donbass could be achieved via agreement with Kiev.
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