Russian President Vladimir Putin has chastised the organizers of the recent aborted mutiny perpetrated by forces of the PMC Wagner Group, stating that these people betrayed not only their country and their people but also the men whom they duped into participating in this "crime."
In a speech delivered today from the Kremlin, Putin said that Russia's enemies and the "neo-Nazis in Kiev" along with their Western sponsors wanted the same outcome as the mutiny organizers: an internecine conflict in Russia where Russian soldiers would have been killing each other.
He pointed out that the mutiny organizers were well aware of the fact that their mutiny would have been inevitably crushed, and that their actions were ultimately aimed at weakening Russia.
"I emphasize that from the very beginning of the events, all necessary decisions were immediately taken to neutralize the threat that arose, to protect the constitutional order, the life and security of our citizens," Putin said.
At the same time, he stressed that the vast majority of the Wagner Group's soldiers and commanders are "Russian patriots devoted to their people and state," who proved their patriotism "with their courage on the battlefield, liberating Donbass and Novorossiya."
He thanked Wagner Group members who stopped before crossing the "final line," and said that they can now continue serving Russia by signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense, or any other law enforcement agency, or to return home to their families. Those who want to move to Belarus may do so freely, the president added.
Putin thanked all Russian servicemen, law enforcement officers and special services' members who "stood in the way" of the mutineers and "remained faithful" to their duty during this crisis, as well as members of the Wagner Group who did not participate in the mutiny.
The Russian president also expressed his gratitude to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for "his efforts and contribution to the peaceful resolution of the situation."
Putin did add, however, that it was the "consolidation of the entire Russian society that played a decisive role" in resolving this crisis."
On Friday, PMC Wagner Group's founder and head Yevgeny Prigozhin accused the Russian military of launching a strike against a Wagner camp, even though the Ministry of Defense denied his allegations.
Shortly afterward, a contingent of Wagner forces started to march on Moscow after seizing control of several administrative buildings in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.
Prigozhin’s actions were condemned by Russian President Vladimir Putin who described them as armed mutiny and treason.
The crisis was resolved peacefully on Saturday with the help of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko who helped mediate a solution, with Wagner forces halting their advance upon the Russian capital and proceeding to return to their base camps.
Full Video: Putin's Statement on Aftermath of Wagner's Aborted Mutiny
Earlier on June 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech about the recent events involving the PMC Wagner Group and its aborted mutiny.
In his address from the Kremlin, Putin praised the people of Russia who consolidated in the face of this threat, as well as soldiers and law enforcement officers who stood in the way of the mutineers.
He also thanked Wagner Group members who ultimately refused to cross the final line and initiate an internecine conflict in Russia that would have been the desired outcome for entities such as the “neo-Nazis in Kiev” and their Western sponsors.
President Putin Delivers Statement
Previously, President Putin addressed the nation on Saturday afternoon to comment on the situation related to the aborted Wagner mutiny.
Sputnik brings you a live broadcast as Russian President Vladimir Putin is making an announcement on Monday, June 26.
Earlier in the evening, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Putin would make several important statements soon.
Teens sing I Am Russian as Shaman’s song tops the chart after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner group’s failed coup | Watch
Polda Jatim pulangkan korban perdagangan orang dari Thailand
Polda Jawa Timur mengungkap sindikat pelaku tindak pidana perdagangan orang (TPPO) nang mengeksploitasi enam orang korban di Thailand dan Myanmar sebagai scammer (penipu). Direktur Reserse Kriminal Khusus Polda Jatim Kombes Pol Farman, hari Senin, 26/06/2023, menyatakan ada empat tersangka dalam kasus tersebut serta dua orang lagi nang tetap berstatus dalam daftar pencarian orang (DPO)
Subdit Siber Ditreskrimsus Polda Jatim kembali bongkar kasus Tindak Pidana Perdagangan Orang (TPPO). Berhasil membawa pulang 6 Pekerja Migran Indonesia (PMI) asal Jember dari Myanmar, melalui Thailand. Empat tersangka diamankan Polda Jatim, 2 tersangka masih DPO.
Empat tersangka yang diamankan yaitu, YS (40) asal Dusun Curahlele, Tempurejo, Jember, MSK (48) asal Desa Rejoagung, Srono, Banyuwangi. FM (41) asal Desa Sukadana Jaya, Sukadana, Lampung, dan RT (38) asal Jalan Puskesmas 2, Sunggal, Medan.
Dalam ungkap kasus dipimpin langsung oleh Kapolda Jatim Irjen Pol Toni Harmanto, Wakapolda Jatim Brigjen Pol Akhmad Yusep Gunawan, Gubernur Jatim Khofifah Indar Parawansa, Dir Krimsus Polda Jatim Kombes Pol Farman, Dirkrimum Polda Jatim Kombes Pol Totok Suharyanto, Kabid Humas Polda Jatim Kombes Pol Dirmanto, Kepala Balai Pelayanan Perlindungan Pekerja Migran Indonesia (BP3MI) Jawa Timur Titis Wulandari dan Sekretaris Direktorat Jenderal Protokol dan Konsuler, Didik Eko Pujianto.
Kapolda Jatim IJP Toni Harmanto menuturkan, kami Polda Jatim menyikapi kasus TPPO PMI ini dengan serius. Dalam ungkap kasus ini sebagai bukti keseriusan Polda Jatim dalam menangani permasalahan PMI di seluruh dunia,” tuturnya.
Ditempat yang sama, Dirkrimsus Polda Jatim KBP Farman memaparkan, diketahui penangkapan keempat tersangka dilakukan dalam rentang waktu Oktober 2022-Juni 2023 di Thailand dan di Perumahan Bumi Ambulu Permai, Jember.
"Kita melakukan ekspos kepulangan enam PMI dari Thailand. Ini hasil kolaborasi dari ibu Gubernur, Kementerian Luar Negeri, BP3MI, dan kepolisian. Kita juga terus secara serius menangani masalah PMI atau TPPO," ungkap Kapolda Jatim Irjen Toni Harmanto di Gedung Rupatama, Polda Jatim, hari Senin, 26/06/2023.
Farman menjelaskan pengungkapan tersebut berdasarkan laporan pada bulan Mei lalu. Perkara dugaan tindak pidana perdagangan orang dan atau perlindungan pekerja migran Indonesia, bermaksud untuk dieksploitasi. Dengan waktu kejadian pada 18 Oktober 2022 hingga Juni 2023 dengan tempat kejadian di Jember, Thailand dan Myanmar.
"Modus operandi yang ditawarkan kepada para korban ini adalah bekerja dengan mendapat bayaran 800 USD per bulan. Kemudian mendapatkan makan empat hari dengan mess," ungkap Farman.
Farman menegaskan pekerjaan yang ditawarkan oleh tersangka adalah sebagai translater. Namun faktanya, para korban dijadikan agen penipuan yang ditarget dalam bekerja.
"Namun faktanya korban ini dipekerjakan sebagai agen scammer (penipuan), para korban ditarget setiap harinya. Kalau mereka tidak memenuhi target akan diberi sanksi atau hukuman. Dan bahkan dengan kekerasan fisik yang mereka terima dari yang memperkerjakan mereka," ungkap Farman.
Sedangkan peran dari para tersangka yakni YS warga Jember dan MSK warga Banyuwangi berperan sebagai perekrut. FM warga Lampung yang berperan sebagai agen pertama yang memerintah untuk perekrutan PMI, serta RT warga Medan juga berperan sebagai perekrut.
Adapun peran keempat tersangka yakni YS, RT dan MSK sebagai perekrut. Sedangkan FM sebagai agen pertama yang memerintahkan merekrut. Dari keempatnya turut disita 2 lembar print out tiket pemberangkatan pesawat, 5 buah handphone, beberapa rekening bank, serta paspor.
Para tersangka dijerat Pasal 4 Undang -Undang Nomor 21 tahun 2007 tentang Pemberangkatan Tindak Pidana Perdagangan Orang dengan pidana minimal 3 tahun dan paling lama 15 tahun penjara dan Pasal 81 jo Pasal 69 UU Nomor 18 tahun 2017 tentang Perlindungan Pekerja Migran Indonesia dengan pidana penjara paling lama 15 tahun.
Gubernur Khofifah Apresiasi Polda Jatim Pulangkan 6 PMI dari Thailand
Gubernur Khofifah Indar Parawansa mengapresiasi Polda Jatim telah mengungkap kasus tindak pidana perdagangan orang (TPPO). Enam orang Pekerja migran Indonesia (PMI) di Thailand dipulangkan ke Jatim.
Enam PMI yang berhasil dipulangkan adalah ZR (26), BP (22), MNI (22) merupakan warga Jember. Sedangkan MTASP (20), ARS dan AS berasal dari Banyuwangi. Mereka merupakan korban penipuan agensi ilegal.
"Pertama kami menyampaikan terima kasih yang luar biasa, yang memberikan ruang kepada kita semua, menyaksikan ada enam PMI yang sudah dikembalikan ke Jawa Timur. Perlu kerjasama antara kementerian Luar Negeri, dengan kepolisian, terutama kepolisian Polda Jawa Timur," kata Khofifah, pada hari Senin, 26/06/2023.
Pada kesempatan yang sama, Khofifah berharap kepada warga Jawa Timur untuk melakukan proses prosedural secara resmi sebelum memutuskan bekerja ke luar negeri. "Jadi jangan melakukan yang nonprosedural," ujar Khofifah.
Khofifah menyampaikan langkah Preventif yang dilakukan oleh Pemprov Jawa Timur yakni akan mulai melakukan pengawasan hingga tingkat Desa.
"Bisa kita lakukan dari skala yang paling kecil, adalah di tingkat desa atau kelurahan. Maka kehadiran Bhabinkamtibmas, Babinsa, kepala desa dan lurah, menjadi sangat penting untuk melakukan monitoring. Setiap warga yang akan meninggalkan rumah dalam waktu cukup lama, tidak mungkin konfirmasi ke kepala desa atau lurah," ungkap Khofifah.
Sebelumnya, Polda Jatim membongkar sindikat tindak pidana perdagangan orang (TPPO). Empat orang ditangkap dan ditetapkan sebagai tersangka. Dalam press release ini, Gubernur Khofifah turut hadir langsung.
Keempat tersangka berinisial YS (40) warga Jember, MSK (48) warga Banyuwangi, FM (41) warga Lampung dan RT (37) warga Medan. Selain menangkap keempat tersangka, Ditreskrimsus Polda Jatim juga berhasil memulangkan enam pekerja migran Indonesia (PMI) dari Thailand yang menjadi korban dari para tersangka.
"Kita melakukan ekspos kepulangan enam PMI dari Thailand. Ini hasil kolaborasi dari ibu Gubernur, Kementerian Luar Negeri, BP3MI, dan kepolisian. Kita juga terus secara serius menangani malasah PMI atau TPPO," ungkap Kapolda Jatim Irjen Toni Harmanto di Gedung Rupatama, Polda Jatim, hari Senin, 26/06/2023.
Kemlu kembali pulangkan 9 WNI korban TPPO dari Myanmar
Wakil Kepala Royal Thai Police Mayor Jenderal Pol. Surachate Hakparn, menyerahkan para korban kepada Wakil Kepala Perwakilan RI Bangkok Sukmo Yuwono. Foto Kemlu
Kementerian Luar Negeri melalui Kedutaan Besar Republik Indonesia (KBRI) di Bangkok berhasil memfasilitasi pemulangan sembilan Warga Negara Indonesia (WNI) yang menjadi korban perdagangan orang (TPPO) dari sebuah perusahaan di wilayah konflik di Myanmar.
Dalam keterangan resminya, Kementerian Luar Negeri menyebutkan, kolaborasi antara KBRI Bangkok, KBRI Yangon, Pemerintah Thailand, dan International Organization for Migration (IOM) menjadi kunci kesuksesan pembebasan ini (26/6).
Keberhasilan pembebasan tersebut dimulai ketika KBRI Yangon menerima pengaduan dari sembilan WNI yang terjebak di wilayah konflik bersenjata di Myawaddy, Myanmar. Setelah berkoordinasi dengan berbagai pihak terkait, KBRI berhasil memindahkan para WNI ke wilayah Maesot, Thailand, dengan bantuan perusahaan tempat mereka bekerja.
Berbekal laporan dari KBRI Yangon, KBRI Bangkok meminta bantuan pemerintah Thailand untuk memberikan perlindungan dan mengidentifikasi para korban TPPO. Melalui mekanisme National Referral Mechanism (NRM), proses identifikasi dilakukan dengan mendampingi para WNI selama proses wawancara. Hasil pemeriksaan menunjukkan bahwa ke-9 WNI tersebut terindikasi sebagai korban TPPO.
Sebagai langkah lanjutan, para korban TPPO ditempatkan di rumah penampungan sementara yang disediakan oleh Pemerintah Thailand sebelum akhirnya dipulangkan ke Indonesia. Proses pemulangan resmi dilakukan di Bandara Suvarnabhumi Bangkok, di mana Pemerintah Thailand yang diwakili oleh Wakil Kepala Royal Thai Police Mayor Jenderal Pol. Surachate Hakparn, menyerahkan para korban kepada Wakil Kepala Perwakilan RI Bangkok Sukmo Yuwono.
Dari sembilan WNI tersebut, enam di antaranya berasal dari Jawa Timur dan langsung diterbangkan ke Surabaya untuk diserahkan kepada Pemerintah Daerah Jawa Timur. Sementara itu, tiga orang lainnya melanjutkan perjalanan ke Medan, Sumatera Utara, sesuai daerah asal mereka.
Pembebasan dan pemulangan para korban TPPO ini menunjukkan kerja keras dan upaya sinergi antara Kementerian Luar Negeri, KBRI Bangkok, KBRI Yangon, Pemerintah Thailand, dan IOM dalam melindungi WNI yang menjadi korban perdagangan orang. Langkah-langkah ini diharapkan dapat memberikan perlindungan yang lebih baik bagi WNI yang terjebak dalam situasi serupa di masa depan.
Residents gather around the collapsed building in Alexandria, Egypt.
A 13-storey building in Alexandria collapsed burying residents under the debris. The Sidi Bishr area in the city of Alexandria, in northern Egypt, witnessed the collapse on Monday morning, while the Civil Protection forces are conducting searches for victims under the rubble.
The collapse caused a large number of residents of the property to fall under the rubble, in addition to the presence of others who were in a supermarket below the property, and a number of cars were destroyed.
The Egyptian Public Prosecution Office has ordered an investigation into the incident which took place in the Sidi Beshr area of Alexandria.
At least four people were taken to nearby hospitals with injuries.
Maj. Gen. Mohamed Al-Sharif, the governor of Alexandria, said the building on Khalil Hamada Street had a vertical split.
Eyewitnesses said a number of cars that were beneath the building at the time were destroyed in the incident.
The building collapsed as a number of residents watched. There were also people present at a supermarket below the building.
The collapse caused a fire to break out amid the rubble, and civil protection forces immediately intervened to extinguish it.
The number of people trapped under the rubble is not yet known but authorities have put a security cordon around the site.
Gas, electricity, and other services were shut down in neighboring buildings.
The governor said that the building was being used as apartments for rent during the summer season.
Khaled Abdel-Ghaffar, Egyptian minister of health and population, ordered the state of readiness at hospitals in the Alexandria Governorate to rise in order to receive anyone injured in the incident.
The ministry added that it had dispatched 12 ambulances to the accident site.
Alexandria, a coastal city overlooking the Mediterranean Sea, attracts millions of Egyptians, Arabs, and foreign tourists.
Three passers-by were injured earlier this month when two balconies of an old building in eastern Alexandria collapsed.
A five-story building collapsed in Egypt’s capital Cairo in June 2022, causing the partial collapse of two others.
It has been reported that many areas of Alexandria Governorate are blighted with dilapidated buildings. A figure of more than 7,000 such buildings has been quoted.
People were trapped beneath rubble following the collapse of a 13-story building in Alexandria, Egypt, on June 26, local media reported.
This footage was published by the Alexandria Governorate, and shows emergency responders at the scene of the collapse.
This is a developing story. Credit: Alexandria Governorate via Storyful
Earlier this month, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko warned of ongoing attempts to create extremist sleeper cells in his country.
Terrorists are being trained in Western countries to stage an armed invasion of Belarus, deputy head of the investigative department of the Belarusian State Security Committee Konstantin Bychek said.
Speaking to Belarusian media, he pointed out that the committee is “ready for these challenges” and that “relevant measures are being taken” in line with orders by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
“Fugitive terrorists and the collective West standing behind them have no chance. We have sufficient capabilities to duly neutralize the [terror] threat,” Bychek underscored.
He added that the training of terrorists is carried out on the basis of foreign special forces, including the GROM Military Unit in Poland, the Lithuanian Riflemen's Union, and the Security Service of Ukraine.
The militants go through a baptism by fire on a battlefield in southeastern Ukraine, and shortly after, they become instructors, preparing terrorist attacks and developing plans to invade Belarusian territory, according to Bychek.
He stressed that State Security Committee knows the names of all those foreign special service officers who train the terrorists, as well as the funds that finance their activities.
This comes after State Security Committee deputy head Ivan Tertel said that some neighboring Western countries and Ukraine host recruitment and training camps for those who want to organize a rebellion in Belarus aimed at ousting the government. According to him, representatives of the radical opposition have asked Western sponsors to provide them with $250 million for subversive activities.
In the same vein, a UK newspaper reported earlier this month that Belarusian militants who plan to take part in an armed uprising attempt against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko are undergoing combat training in Poland.
According to the newspaper, several hundred Belarusian citizens are сurrently deployed at training centers in the city of Poznan. The centers were reportedly created by former Belarusian special service employees who left the country after the 2020 presidential election.
The report followed Lukashenko stating in early June that members of illegal armed groups are being trained in Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine, and that attempts are being made to create sleeper cells of extremists directly in Belarus.
Fyodor Lukyanov: Why Russia cannot ‘sober up the West’ by using a nuclear bomb
Professor Sergey Karaganov’s “Tough-but-necessary decision” article – which claims that by using its nuclear weapons, Russia could save humanity from a global catastrophe – has provoked plenty of reaction both at home and abroad. This is partly due to the author’s status – he has been an adviser to both President Boris Yeltsin and President Vladimir Putin – and also because of the belief that his opinion may possibly be shared by some people in positions of power.
Fyodor Lukyanov, widely regarded as Russia’s top contemporary foreign policy expert, provides his response.
Sergey Karaganov’s article, arguing that “the use of nuclear weapons could save humanity from global catastrophe” has provoked a strong reaction. This was probably the author’s intention.
Public debate on the permissibility of using atomic bombs has been taboo since the United States dropped two on Japan. The consequences of those attacks are well known.
Relations between the nuclear superpowers in the last century were based on the assumption that any use would lead to all-out war and the destruction of civilization. The certainty of the inevitability of such a scenario and the fear of its realization meant that atomic bombs were not considered to be battlefield weapons.
Instead, they were regarded as a deterrent - both to the enemy and to “hotheads” at home. Thus, when someone dares to question whether we need to return them to the status of a conventional weapon, it causes shock and indignation. No matter how powerful the call.
Your humble servant is not, and does not claim to be, an expert on nuclear weapons and the principles of deterrence. But the issue raised by my senior colleague [the original article was published in Russian in Global Affairs, where I am editor and Professor Karaganov is the publisher] affects everyone, so I will venture to speculate from the position of an informed layman.
Deterrence as a child of its time
Karaganov’s arguments can be judged on their own merits, especially as they range from the practical to those which are an article of faith. One thing is indisputable - the risk of nuclear war is higher today than at any time since the early 1960s. The reasons for this are both the general increase in aggressiveness in international politics and the strategic carelessness resulting from thirty years of relative peace under American hegemony. Add to this the disbelief that a full-blown nuclear war can really happen, which has led to existential fear removing itself from the equation.
The latter is the starting point for Sergey. Only the return of the real fear of a nuclear apocalypse can sober Western elites who are prepared to impose their hegemony on the rest of the world by force, no matter what. The aim stated in the article is to “break the will” of the collective West by forcing it to abandon its quest for supremacy. The last resort is to launch a nuclear strike against “a group of targets in a number of countries.”
Let’s leave aside the moral aspect, which is clear - the author himself acknowledges the monstrosity of the proposed action. Let us concentrate on the conceptual scheme, to the extent that it might be effective in encouraging people to sober up.
Nuclear deterrence and Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) are a product of the political and technological development of the second half of the twentieth century – the post-World War II era. It was a unique period of relative order in international relations, based on a system of institutions. This made it possible to regulate the interaction between the main actors, primarily the two superpowers, which were the US and the erstwhile Soviet Union.
The existence of an approximate military-political, economic and ideological equilibrium was cemented by the nuclear factor – first by the emergence of nuclear weapons in the USSR, then by the achievement of Soviet-American parity, in this regard. The degree of order should not be exaggerated, but there was more of it than we had ever seen before, and probably will see again.
Crisis of the old order
The end of the Cold War meant that this equilibrium – in most parameters – disappeared, but the institutional framework remained unchanged. It was assumed that there was no need to rebuild it because, in the absence of confrontation, the institutions would finally function as they should. The nuclear factor also remained unchanged and the MAD principle was maintained even during the period of maximum Russian weakness in the first years after the collapse of the USSR.
In practice, the effectiveness of the institutions created in the last century, which were effective back then, began to decline rapidly as their mechanisms were designed for a different balance of power and interests. In theory, a different infrastructure of international organizations should have been discussed and agreed. But the victorious West did not consider this necessary. After all, the very system of institutions, starting with the UN, originally embodied American ideas. The Soviet Union agreed to them after the Second World War because it had no doubt that it would play a leading role in any design.
In other words, the sustainability of the world order of the second half of the last century was determined by the Western design and the balance of power within it provided by the USSR.
Without balance, the very fabric of the system began to unravel and crumble. Hence the dysfunction of structures – from the United Nations to many sectoral and regional institutions, including those that were purely Western, such as the WTO, which emerged from GATT. They cannot cope with the heterogeneity of the world. Against this background, other types of alliances are beginning to emerge, less formalized, with fewer participants, designed for a more flexible approach. A fixed world order is not to be expected in the foreseeable future. It will not be possible to regulate multilevel international disorder without a qualitative simplification of the picture. And that is exactly what is not expected, unless catastrophic scenarios are taken into account.
Deterrence as an institution
Nuclear deterrence is one of the fundamental institutions of the second half of the last century. It did not emerge overnight, but rather in the first decade and a half of the existence of nuclear weapons when America and the USSR tested the limits by provoking escalations. During the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, the leaders of the two nuclear superpowers – Nikita Khrushchev and John F Kennedy – faced this very fear. They definitively established the inadmissibility of direct conflict.
Nuclear weapons were indeed capable of destroying humanity, and the understanding of deterrence was seen as almost unbreakable. Different games could be played, but the existence of the planet itself could not be put at risk.
Sergey also wrote a few years ago that the depth and breadth of contradictions in international relations, in the current era, are such that in earlier times they would have led to a world war long ago. But the only thing that has been stopping such a turn of events is the presence of nuclear weapons.
However, now he has come to a different conclusion. The US is no longer afraid of waging a full-scale war against a nuclear superpower, even if it is being fought by someone else. As a result, it’s a short step to a world war that would inevitably be thermonuclear. Thus, it may turn out that the only way to avoid such a situation is to have a nuclear episode as a preventive measure, but just a local one.
It is reasonable to ask here why an atomic attack on another nuclear-armed state or bloc [in this case NATO] would not quickly escalate into the same thermonuclear all-out war, i.e. an exchange of fire between Russia and the US? The whole system of relations in the nuclear sphere, as the theorists of deterrence point out, is based primarily on psychology, not on strategy and technology. And this game is designed to discourage the enemy from even thinking about a possible nuclear attack.
The use of nuclear weapons means the end game and essentially nullifies their special role, turning them simply into a very powerful means of destruction. Competition to attack better is usually part and parcel of a “normal” war, but in this case it would be on a gargantuan scale. Mutual annihilation may not be guaranteed, but the overall damage would be such that the countries involved – and the world as a whole – would be radically and horribly altered.
Can we get back to basics?
Emphasizing that nuclear strikes are a last resort, Karaganov expects that the mere move up the ‘escalation ladder’ will make the other side realize the level of threat and move on to a substantive conversation – how to begin to settle the conflict and resolve the contradictions. That is, he believes it is possible to return to the original institutional raison d'être of nuclear weapons – the presence of absolute fear that constrains the behavior of the participants to a stand-off.
However, as mentioned above, it was then part of the overall system of balanced management of international processes. Yes, it can be said that the existence of this system was largely determined by the existence of nuclear weapons, but it was not exhausted by this factor. And when other elements of the construct began to fall away after the Cold War, it appeared that nuclear deterrence as such was not sufficient to ensure the former behavioral constraints.
The assumption here is that a system of mutually acceptable rules can be re-established with the help of fear, based on the build-up of an existential threat. This logic was applied on a lesser level in December 2021, when Russia issued ultimatums on long-term security guarantees, threatening “military and technical measures” in case of refusal. The nature of these measures was revealed with the launch of the military operation on Ukrainian territory which shocked Western elites, who had treated the ultimatum with contempt. It did not, however, lead to a willingness to enter into a discussion with Russia about its concerns; the opposite was the case.
One could argue that the comparison is flawed because the US and its NATO allies are not directly threatened by the Ukraine conflict, whereas nuclear escalation is another matter entirely. But this is where the very elites whose irresponsibility Karaganov deplores come into play. Whatever one thinks of them, they have so far demonstrated a mastery of managing public opinion and mobilizing support for their policies. Even if, objectively, these policies are detrimental to the welfare and security of their citizens.
The plan, it turns out, is to return nuclear deterrence to its status in the second half of the twentieth century by raising the threat level. And to bring back the kind of elites who were in power then. Something romantic and nostalgic. It is unclear where such a cadre could be found today – just look at the alternative forces in leading Western countries. All the more so since, apart from everything else, legitimizing the use of nuclear weapons in the eyes of anyone outside the obvious situation described in doctrinal documents (a threat to the existence of the state) seems an impossible task.
Do we have to detonate it?
Immediately after the Americans detonated the atomic bomb in 1945, George Orwell wrote a short essay entitled You and the Atomic Bomb. He had no doubt that others (at least Moscow and Beijing) would acquire it, and if it remained not only super-destructive but also hard to get and very expensive, it might do some good by putting an end to large-scale wars at the cost of prolonging indefinitely a “peace that is no peace.” In other words, Orwell understood from the outset that the point of this invention was not its application, but the mere specter of its existence For Orwell, to turn it into another “mere weapon” risked plunging the world into barbarism and the end of the nation-state as a form of organization.
Nuclear weapons are now increasingly accessible, both technologically and materially. Is thinking about the likelihood of their use the prerogative of Russian minds alone, seeking a way out of a difficult military-strategic situation? Certainly not. Speculation on this subject is gradually filling the world’s public space. This confirms what I said above that the institution of deterrence, like other institutions of the last century, is in crisis. A sharp increase in the level of debate will not lead to the strengthening of the system, but rather to its ultimate collapse. And use would not be a means of forcing a change of heart, but a formal lifting of a general taboo with little predictable consequences. Further action would no longer be dictated by calculations of one kind or another, but by the reactions of the other to each successive move. The game of nuclear peek-a-boo is a gamble. But if it fails, the net damage would be multiples worse than any hypothetical benefits.
The taboo on the use of nuclear weapons is undoubtedly weakening. So, as a result, we have to be prepared for anything. The rational behavior here is not to break the taboo definitively, preemptively, but to try to maintain it, at least as a kind of restraint. This does not mean that the subject should not be broached. Sanctimoniously scowling at the very thought of it is an ostrich-like approach. In this sense, Karaganov should be thanked for such a straightforward presentation of his position. Its discussion should be part of the development of a new concept of strategic stability to replace the one that can no longer be repaired.
Russian Jets Escort UK Reconnaissance Aircraft, Fighters Over Black Sea
Two Russian Su-27 fighter jets on Monday escorted an RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft and two multi-purpose Typhoon fighters of the United Kingdom's Royal Air Force (RAF) over the Black Sea, the Russian Defense Ministry's National Defense Control Center said.
According to the center, radars detected three air targets approaching the Russian state border over the Black Sea. The Su-27 fighter was scrambled to prevent foreign aircraft from entering Russian airspace.
The Su-27 identified the air targets as an RC-135 electronic warfare and reconnaissance aircraft and two Typhoon multipurpose fighters of the RAF.
"When approaching Russian fighters, foreign military aircraft performed a U-turn from the state border of the Russian Federation," the defense ministry said.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive has already cost it more than a dozen Bradley fighting vehicles provided by Washington, the New York Times has reported, citing anonymous US officials. Since Kiev began its operation at the start of June, the Russian Defense Ministry has claimed its forces have destroyed dozens of Ukrainian armored vehicles and tanks, including Western-made ones.
According to an article published by the NYT on Monday, 17 of the 113 Bradleys supplied to Ukraine by the US have been damaged or destroyed.
Particularly dangerous for advancing Ukrainian troops are extensive Russian minefields, the paper explained. The flat, open terrain in southeastern Ukraine is making the counteroffensive an arduous undertaking as Ukrainian troops effectively have nowhere to take cover.
The NYT claimed that Russian KA-52 attack helicopters pose an additional threat as they have reportedly managed to conduct missile strikes from outside the range of Ukrainian air defense.
As a result, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has ground to a halt in some areas, with soldiers reassessing their tactics, the newspaper claimed. Kiev’s forces have thus far managed to cover less than half the distance to Russia’s main line of defense, the report added.
Ukrainian service members told reporters that the Russians had “dug in, they mined, they are ready.”
“Given what the guys are saying, it’s not going as well as they show on TV,” a medic acknowledged.
Meanwhile, officials in Kiev, including President Vladimir Zelensky, have attempted to reassure the public that the main battles are still ahead.
While Kiev’s backers in the US are publicly calling for patience, one anonymous official told the NYT that the underwhelming results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive have been “sobering.”
“They are behind schedule,” the senior administration official conceded, speaking privately to journalists.
However, unnamed officials also insisted that given the extensive Russian defenses, the slow pace of the Ukrainian advance was predictable, claiming it was still too early to draw any broad conclusions.
Since the start of June, the Russian Defense Ministry has claimed on several occasions that its troops have destroyed Western-supplied military hardware, with Ukraine losing thousands of service members in the process.
Moscow has released video clips apparently showing its troops destroying a German-made Leopard tank, French AMX-10 light tanks, and other vehicles.
CNN reported that 16 of the 109 US armored vehicles were destroyed, damaged or abandoned recently. Analysts say that given the scale of the war and the length of the frontline, such losses were well expected. According to the Dutch portal Oryx, the Ukrainian military has lost at least 3,600 pieces of military equipment since February 2022.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the Ukrainian army has been making unsuccessful offensive attempts since June 4. On June 22, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolay Patrushev, said that Ukraine’s losses in manpower since the start of the counteroffensive campaign had exceeded 13,000. Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that the Ukrainian army had no success in any direction.
According to Bloomberg, the West admits that Ukraine has sustained significant losses. At the same time, the Politico newspaper quoted Washington administration officials as saying that further assistance to Kiev would depend on the success of the counterattack.
Watch Russian Iskander Ballistic Missile System Send 'Special Delivery' to Ukrainian Forces
The Ukrainian conflict has, among other things, highlighted the formidable might and destructive power of the Russian artillery and ballistic missile systems, which have inflicted significant damage upon Kiev regime forces.
No matter how many air defense systems the US and its allies supply to Kiev, Russian ballistic missiles continue to rain upon strategic targets deep in the territory controlled by Zelensky’s regime.
A short video released online by Russia’s Ministry of Defense shows one of the Russian Iskander mobile ballistic missile systems in action.
In the footage, the Iskander missile system can be seen emerging from a concealed position and moving to a designated launch area.
Upon arrival, the missile launcher’s crew quickly finishes all the necessary preparations, to unload their deadly payload once the order is given.
