The cost of shipping fuel by sea has in some cases soared above $100,000 a day due to continued disruptions in the Suez Canal and Red Sea caused by attacks by the Houthi rebels, Bloomberg reported this week.
According to data from the Baltic Exchange in London, the price of shipping oil and refined products from the Middle East to Japan surged by 3% on Thursday alone, to $101,000 a day, the highest cost for that particular route since 2020.
The same trend has been observed for vessels carrying fuel from the Middle East to Europe. Tanker costs on this route have surged to within the range of $97,000-$117,000 per day, depending on the size of the ship.
The Houthis, an Islamist group that controls a large part of Yemen, have been attacking and hijacking ships crossing the vital waterway that handles about 15% of global trade in what they claim is a show of solidarity with the Palestinians. Despite the US and allies having deployed a naval taskforce to the area to safeguard shipping, many freight companies have halted travel through the waterway and instead make the far longer and more expensive journey around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.
According to an earlier report by the Wall Street Journal, citing data from London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants, the average worldwide cost of shipping a 40-foot container jumped 23% to $3,777 in the week ending January 18, more than double what it cost only a month prior.
Freight fallout began with container ships. It is now significantly impacting product tankers — the vessels that transport gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, naphtha and other petroleum products.
Larger product tankers that do long-haul runs are diverting around Africa in increasing numbers. These ship types include LR1s (with capacity of 55,000-79,999 deadweight tons or DWT) and LR2s (80,000-119,000 DWT).
Extended transit times for long-haul product tankers are having the knock-on effect of hiking demand for regional replacement shipments using short-haul vessels known as MRs (25,000-54,999 DWT).
Evercore analyst Jon Chappell said in a report on Wednesday, “Longer voyages as more tankers bypass the important Red Sea/Suez Canal chokepoint will further add to ton-miles [volume multiplied by distance], potentially causing vast disruption to trade routes and adding more potential upside to spot rates that are already supported by strong fleet utilization.”
Spot rates for modern-built (2015 or later) LR2s averaged $84,800 per day on Wednesday, up 132% year on year (y/y), according to data from Clarksons.
LR2 rate gains are being led by the Middle East Gulf-Europe route — the trade directly affected by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea — with modern-built LR2 spot rates on this route now averaging $92,100 per day.
“Product tanker rates have continued to gap up,” said Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta on Wednesday. “LR2s in particular have broken out. With the vessels fixed to the European market most likely to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, many of these will be laden for longer and lead to an even tighter balance in the coming weeks.
A blaze on a British-linked oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden has been put out after firefighting efforts continued through the night following a strike by Houthi rebels.
Photographs released by the Indian navy on Saturday showed smoke billowing from the Martin Luanda tanker as its crew battled to control a fire in a fuel compartment
It is operated on behalf of Trafigura, a multinational trading giant domiciled in Singapore.
The Houthis said the attack was revenge for British and American strikes on their positions in Yemen in what was the terror group’s latest attack on international shipping in the region.
Al-Masira, a Yemeni Houthi-ran broadcaster, said two air strikes had targeted the port of Issa, which is Yemen’s largest oil export terminal.
“Firefighting equipment on board is being deployed to suppress and control the fire caused in one cargo tank on the starboard side,” it said in a statement
As usual, in order not to lose face, a few hours later the US published news released by all western media with a similar title, namely "US military destroys Houthi antiship missile after oil tanker attack".
The Houthi attack has also exposed the lies of the UK and US claiming missile attacks on Yemeni soil to knock out Yemeni Houthi ammunition.
Turkey, which is part of the West, whose job is to trick Muslims in the world into siding with the West, received an F16 aircraft as a gift from the US after Turkey supplied the Bayakhtar to Israel, with the news being spread that Turkey purchased an F16 aircraft from the US
A Palestinian girl carrying a child walks through debris at the site of Israeli attacks on a mosque and houses in Rafah in southern Gaza, on January 25, 2024 [Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters]
The World Court ordered Israel on Friday to prevent acts of genocide against Palestinians and do more to help civilians, but the World Court was silent on the ceasefire order requested by the South African defendant.
While the ruling denied Palestinian hopes of a binding order to halt the war in Gaza, it represented a legal setback for Israel, which had hoped to throw out a case brought under the genocide convention established in the ashes of the World War Two Holocaust that targeted European Jews.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) found there was a case to be heard about whether Palestinian rights were being denied in a war it said was causing grievous humanitarian harm. It also called for Palestinian armed groups to release hostages captured in the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel that precipitated the conflict.
The Palestinian Foreign Ministry said the decision was a welcome reminder "no state is above the law". Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters it would contribute to "isolating the occupation and exposing its crimes in Gaza".
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the ICJ's decision not to order a ceasefire, but rejected the claim of genocide as "outrageous" and said Israel would continue to defend itself.
REPORT BACK IN A MONTH
Israel had sought to have the case thrown out when South Africa brought it to the ICJ, also known as the World Court, this month under the legal principle that genocide is such a grave crime that all countries are duty-bound to prevent it.
Pretoria accused Israel of state-led genocide in its offensive, begun after Hamas militants stormed into Israel killing 1,200 and kidnapping more than 240.
It asked the court to grant emergency measures to halt the fighting, which Palestinian officials say has killed more than 26,000 Palestinians and displaced the majority of the population in a more than three-month campaign of intensive bombardment.
The ICJ judges ordered Israel to take all measures within its power to prevent its troops from committing genocide, punish acts of incitement, take steps to improve the humanitarian situation and report back on its progress in a month.
It did not decide the merits of the genocide allegations, which could take years. Although the ruling cannot be appealed, the court has no mechanism to enforce its decision.
In reading out the decision, ICJ President Judge Joan Donoghue described the plight of Palestinians in Gaza, singling out harm to children and quoting detailed descriptions of the humanitarian emergency from U.N. officials.
This, she said, justified the court's decision to take emergency action to prevent irreparable harm. She also read out calls from Israeli officials for a harsh campaign, which she said justified the court's order to Israel to punish people guilty of incitement.
Israel called South Africa's allegations false and "grossly distorted". It says it has acted in self defence against a foe that attacked first, and goes to great lengths to protect civilians, blaming Hamas for operating among them, which the fighters deny.
South Africa called the court order a "decisive victory" for international rule of law and both it and the European Union said Israel must implement it immediately and in full.
The United States noted the ruling did not make a finding about genocide and said it aligned with the U.S. view that Israel had the right to take action in accordance with international law to prevent any repeat of the Oct. 7 attacks.
ASSAULT ON KHAN YOUNIS
On the ground in Gaza, the heaviest fighting in weeks is now taking place in crowded areas jammed with hundreds of thousands of people who fled from earlier fighting elsewhere.
Palestinians sheltering in southern Gaza said they felt let down by the lack of a ceasefire order from the court, but also hopeful the ruling would bring accountability.
"What happened was a victory," said Mustafa Ibrahim, a human rights activist.
In Israel, Jonathan Dekel-Chen, whose son is being held hostage in Gaza, said he was encouraged by the ICJ's call for the release of the captives, which he said reflected a largely neglected point that the Hamas assault sparked the war.
The militants released a video on Friday featuring three female hostages calling for an end to the conflict. Israel has said such videos amount to psychological abuse.
Residents said Israeli forces blew up buildings and houses in the western part of the city as gun battles raged.
Palestinians say Israel has hampered efforts to rescue the dead and wounded as well as blockading hospitals, which Israel denies, blaming Hamas fighters for operating near them.
Hezbollah announced that four of its fighters were killed in an Israeli strike on southern Lebanon late on Friday. The group has been exchanging fire with Israeli since it launched rockets across Lebanon's southern border on Oct. 8 in support of its ally Hamas.
It said on Friday that it had fired rockets at Israeli military targets nine times during the day, including the Burkan (Volcano), which carry hundreds of kilograms of explosives.
Palestinians arrive in the southern Gaza town of Rafah after fleeing an Israeli ground and air offensive in the nearby city of Khan Younis on Friday, Jan. 26, 2024. Israel has expanded its offensive in Khan Younis, saying the city is a stronghold of the Hamas militant group. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)
Not a ‘goodwill gesture’
The US provides at least $3.8bn in military aid to Israel annually. For years, rights advocates and a growing number of US lawmakers have called on Washington to condition that assistance on Israel’s human rights record and international law.
The US government also twice bypassed Congress to provide thousands of artillery shells to the country as it continued to bombard Gaza. Israeli attacks have killed more than 26,000 Palestinians to date and decimated the coastal territory.
Yet, despite reports and investigations that showed US weapons were used in Israeli bombings that killed Palestinian civilians in Gaza, attempts to pressure Washington to end the transfers or determine whether the arms are being deployed in rights abuses have failed.
“We have been telling the Biden administration that this is not just a goodwill gesture” to end the transfer of weapons to Israel, said DAWN’s Jarrar, explaining that Washington has obligations under international and US law.
“This is something that they have to think about very seriously because the United States as a government is implicated in these war crimes, and US officials are also implicated,” Jarrar said. “They have to take today’s order [from the ICJ] very seriously.
But on Friday, Yasmine Ahmed, the UK director at HRW, said the ICJ’s provisional order should push the UK government to “halt arms exports to Israel with immediate effect”. “There is NO question,” she wrote on social media.
There is NO question. In light of the provisional measures judgment @CIJ_ICJ, the 🇬🇧 must halt arms exports to Israel with immediate effect @David_Cameron@KemiBadenoch
The Court found a plausible risk of genocide & the UK has an obligation to prevent genocide & not be complicit
“The Court found a plausible risk of genocide & the UK has an obligation to prevent genocide & not be complicit.”
That obligation stems from the UN’s 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide — commonly known as the Genocide Convention. The US, the UK and Canada are among 153 countries that are parties to the treaty.
It confirms “that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to punish”.
South Africa invoked this “obligation to prevent genocide” when it brought its case to the ICJ, and the court on Friday recognised that it had standing under the Genocide Convention. The treaty also states that “complicity in genocide” is punishable.
“If you’re supplying arms to a country where you know the arms may be used for criminal purposes, then you may become complicit in those crimes,” said Geoffrey Nice, a UK lawyer who led the prosecution of Slobodan Milosevic at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.
“And it’s very hard not to become complicit after a certain stage of knowing is reached and after a certain stage of conduct continues,” Nice told Al Jazeera in a television interview on Friday.
“Arms suppliers would have to be very, very careful – and some may simply decide it’s not worth the risk of being brought into a humiliating, serious, possible investigation for crime.”
Airlangga: Keberpihakan Presiden dijamin undang-undang pemilu
Ketua Umum Partai Golkar Airlangga Hartarto (tengah), Ketua DPD Partai Golkar Sumatera Utara Musa Rajekshah memberikan keterangan di Medan, Sumatera Utara, hari Jumat, 26/01/2024. (M. Sahbainy Nasution)
Ketua Umum Partai Golkar Airlangga Hartarto menyatakan keberpihakan Presiden dijamin oleh konstitusi dan undang-undang pemilu.
"Jadi itu bukan hal yang baru," ujar Ketua Umum Partai Golkar Airlangga Hartarto di Medan, Sumatera Utara, Jumat malam.
Dia mengatakan dalam sejarah Indonesia mulai dari Presiden Bung Karno merupakan PMI, Presiden Suharto Partai Golkar Presiden Habibi Partai Golkar, Megawati PDIP, Gusdur PKB.
"Itu sesuatu hal yang biasa, di luar negeri pada saat Presiden Obama menjadi presiden, dia meng 'endorese' Hilary Clinton," tutur Airlangga.
Sebelumnya, Presiden Joko Widodo menekankan pernyataannya beberapa waktu lalu mengenai Presiden boleh berkampanye, dilontarkan untuk menjawab pertanyaan wartawan dan sesuai ketentuan undang-undang.
“Itu kan ada pertanyaan dari wartawan mengenai menteri boleh kampanye atau tidak, saya sampaikan ketentuan dari peraturan perundang-undangan,” kata Joko Widodo dalam keterangan yang disampaikan melalui video dari Istana Kepresidenan Bogor, Jawa Barat, Jumat, sebagaimana dipantau di Jakarta.
Presiden kemudian menunjukkan sebuah kertas yang menunjukkan ketentuan Undang-Undang Nomor 7 Tahun 2017 tentang Pemilu.
“Ini saya tunjukkin (menunjukkan kertas). Undang-Undang Nomor 7 Tahun 2017 jelas menyampaikan di pasal 299 bahwa presiden dan Wakil Presiden mempunyai hak melaksanakan kampanye, jelas?” ujar Presiden.
Dia menegaskan apa yang disampaikannya beberapa waktu lalu terkait Presiden boleh melakukan kampanye adalah ketentuan yang ada dalam UU Pemilu.
“Itu yang saya sampaikan ketentuan mengenai UU Pemilu. Jangan ditarik ke mana-mana. Kemudian juga pasal 281 juga jelas, bahwa kampanye, pemilu yang mengikutsertakan Presiden dan Wakil Presiden harus memenuhi ketentuan, tidak menggunakan fasilitas dalam jabatan, kecuali fasilitas pengamanan, dan menjalani cuti di luar tanggungan negara,” tegasnya.
On January 24, 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down a Russian Il-76 military transport plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners for exchange over the Belgorod region. All the prisoners on board, as well as six crew members and three escorts, were killed — a total of 74 people.
Ordnance found at the Il-76 crash site shows an air defense system of French or US origin was used to shoot it down, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The origin of the missiles will be clear in a matter of days, Putin told a meeting with students participating in the special military operation in St. Petersburg.
"The weapons seized at the [crash] site indicate that this is an air defense missile. This means either they were poorly taught, or they do not learn well on their own, or they are not able to properly manage such systems. Most likely, these are US-made Patriot systems, or European air defense systems — most likely French ones. There will be an answer to this in a few days," Putin stressed.
He said it was obvious that the missiles that shot down the Russian Il-76 aircraft in the Belgorod region were launched from Kiev-controlled territories.
"I do not know if they did it on purpose or by mistake, thoughtlessly, but it is obvious that they did it... because two missile launches were recorded from territories controlled by the Kiev regime," Putin said.
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine knew that their prisoners of war on board the Russian Il-76 aircraft, the president noted.
"The whole Kiev regime today is based on crimes that are committed on a daily basis. Including in relation to their own citizens... Our Il-76 plane was shot down with their own military personnel... The [Ukrainian] Main Intelligence Directorate knew that we were transporting military personnel there, 65 people, with planned 190 in total, as far as I remember. And knowing this, they struck the plane," Putin said.
Commenting on the ongoing investigation of the IL-76 aircraft crash in Russia's Belgorod Region, he stated that its results will be made public "to the maximum" so that Ukrainians could find out what happened.
"There are black boxes there, everything will be collected and shown. I will ask the Investigative Committee to make all the circumstances of this crime public. So the people in Ukraine can also find out what really happened," Putin pointed out.
On Wednesday, the Il-76 transport aircraft with 65 Ukrainian PoWs being transported for exchange crashed in Russia's Belgorod Region, the Russian Ministry of Defense said. All the PoWs, along with six crew members and three accompanying persons on board died. Russian Ministry accused the Ukrainian forces of downing the plane.
Washington is developing a new Black Sea strategy envisaging bolstering the US and NATO role in the region, as Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Jim O'Brien announced at a German Marshall Fund meeting on January 25.
Assistant Secretary of State O'Brien, who oversees US relations with Europe and Eurasia, visited the German Marshall Fund on Thursday to discuss 2024 US priorities in Europe, including backing Ukraine and "widening European integration."
During his speech, O'Brien placed special emphasis on the strategic importance of the Black Sea to the US and NATO, stressing that the development of a grand design to ensure security in the region is underway. He pointed out that meetings had been held with Turkiye and other littoral states.
"(The US) want(s) to establish dominance over the Black Sea," Vasily Dandykin, a captain 1st rank reserve and military expert, told Sputnik. "This is an old idea. One of the goals is to bring Ukraine into NATO. Because they believe that whoever dominates the Black Sea and owns Crimea receives all the bonuses. This is the underbelly of Russia in the south. And that’s why there was such irritation when the Crimean Spring happened in 2014 [Crimean people voted to reunify with Russia in March 2014 – Sputnik]. As far as I remember the Americans had agreed with Kiev to establish a base for the US fleet in Sevastopol by that time."
What's Behind US Plans to Create Strategic Dominance in the Black Sea?
It was not the first time that O'Brien has pushed the idea of beefing up US/NATO presence in the region. On October 25, 2023, the US official testified before the US Senate's Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation. He claimed that the Ukraine conflict is "a very good bargain" for the US as it gives Washington a unique opportunity to increase NATO's military presence in the Black Sea, including the region's lands, airspace, and waters, while "Ukrainians are paying the bulk of the cost" by fighting with Russians.
NATO's dominance in the region could create conditions for pulling Ukraine and other Black Sea countries away from Russia and integrating them into the Western sphere of influence, O'Brien added. That would also help the West build oil and gas pipelines that lead from Central Asia via Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkiye to Europe thus completely axing Russia's energy commodities from the Old Continent's market. In particular, O'Brien hinted that Washington was very interested in the Ukrainian conflict going on to allow the US to accomplish its geopolitical goals in the Black Sea region.
The Biden administration is considering the idea of redrawing the energy map of the Black Sea region altogether, as Edward Hunt, a PhD in American Studies from the College of William & Mary, has written in his op-ed for Foreign Policy in Focus. Hunt noted that the idea of the "Southern Gas Corridor" through the Black Sea was recently touted by State Department official Geoffrey Pyatt, who served as a US ambassador to Ukraine at the time of the 2014 coup d'etat in Kiev and who now leads US energy diplomacy. Per Pyatt, "the redrawing of the energy map around the Black Sea that’s taking place" envisages "new pipeline infrastructure", in particular, "the Southern Gas Corridor to bring gas from Central Asia to European consumers."
'NATO's Expanding in All Directions'
Meanwhile, Dandykin pointed out that Washington's expansionist plans are not limited to the Black Sea:
"The fact is that the strengthening of the United States and NATO – first of all, the United States – in all directions has become the general concept," the military expert stressed, adding that the US has recently expanded its continental shelf (including in the Arctic region) to about one million square kilometers – an area twice the size of California.
"They established their bases in Finland, and the Finns gave the go-ahead, for airfields, etc. In the Baltic, near our borders, maneuvers will now take place for two months, with a total of 90,000 [NATO] military personnel. This is a concept of the expansion in all directions, including in the south. They seek to encircle and bleed the Russian Federation white," the expert said.
Dandykin emphasized that Washington appears to have benefitted the most from the Ukrainian conflict and sanctions spree. The US forced Europe to decouple from Russia and at least partially filled the latter's shoes. The American military-industrial complex is now working "at full capacity" to replenish the allies' depleted weapons stockpiles, as their obsolete weapons have been burned down in Ukraine.
"More and more (Western) countries are placing orders for weapons. There is a military schizophrenia in Germany, they want to rearm. The Americans have always been the beneficiaries in all these messes. Therefore, they will, in particular, try to pour more gasoline on the fire this year to create difficulties for Russia," Dandykin said.
How Will Russia React to US Black Sea Strategy?
The US and their NATO allies have been trying to enhance their operations in the Black Sea, the military expert noted, referring in particular to Western surveillance drones flying in close proximity to Crimea.
Russia has repeatedly warned the US against meddling in the Ukraine conflict. On the morning of 14 March 2023, a Russian Su-27 fighter jet was scrambled to intercept an American MQ-9 Reaper drone. The latter eventually crashed into the Black Sea after conducting a botched maneuver.
Dandykin pointed out that no matter how brazen the US and its NATO allies may behave, they are fully aware that they are risking nothing short of a nuclear war with Russia.
Washington's Black Sea strategy obviously won't go unnoticed by the Russian Foreign Ministry, the expert continued, adding that Russia is ready for all potential scenarios. He noted that a lot depends on how Black Sea littoral states, especially Turkiye, will react to Team Biden's Black Sea initiatives. Ankara has so far demonstrated its firm position by closing off the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to warships from any country, whether or not they border the Black Sea, after the beginning of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. Besides, a new conflict in the Middle East over Israel's Gaza war may also influence the balance of power in the region. So, Russia is likely to take a wait-and-see approach and it won't add fuel to the fire as its American counterparts are presently doing overseas, Dandykin noted.
What's more, the US security doctrine for the Black Sea could hardly be accomplished as it excludes Russia, a littoral state with considerable strategic strength and influence in the region, Dandykin stressed. "No, it's obviously impossible" the expert emphasized when asked whether it's possible to implement this or any other security strategy in the Black Sea region without the participation of the Russian Federation.
