West's Obsession with Inflicting Strategic Defeat on Russia Reveals Agony & Hysteria - Lavrov

©Sputnik/Alexey Filippov/Go to the mediabank

The West's statements about the impending loss of its influence and the restructuring of the world by Russia and its partners reflect an understanding of the ongoing formation of a new and just world order, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

"The escalation of this theme of Russia's [strategic] defeat, the emphasis on the existential significance of this defeat for the future of the West reflects not so much a bellicose mood as agony and hysteria," Lavrov said.

In addition to fearing the loss of hegemony, the West is asserting the dominance of the United States, which means that everyone must obey its orders, he added.

"In addition to this fear of losing hegemony, they are still very open, perhaps without even realizing that they are being so open, they make it clear that the United States is in charge, and they all fell under the [influence of] the United States," Lavrov told Sputnik.

Russia is not frightened by talk of inflicting strategic defeat on it, which is heard in the West; such rhetoric, Lavrov noted.

"If they put us in a situation where they simply need to strategically defeat us, essentially destroy us as a global player, they cannot understand that we will not be intimidated," Lavrov highlighted.

The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry noted that, unlike Russia, the countries making threats against Russia would themselves be afraid if similar threats were made against them "with the same fervor and vehemence".

"And this has strengthened us; let them draw conclusions from this historical lesson," the minister added.

On Possibility of Peace Talks With Ukraine

Speaking about the possibility of peace talks with Ukraine the Russian Foreign Minister said that Russia always prefers negotiations to quarrels.

"As (Russian( President (Vladimir Putin) constantly reminds us, we always prefer negotiations to fights and wars," Lavrov said.

The minister noted that the so-called 'Zelensky Formula' cannot serve as a foundation for resolving the Ukrainian conflict because it does not take into account Russia's demands.

Lavrov noted that Russia respects the position of China, whose representatives have expressed support for convening a conference acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine.

"This means that we should not start with the 'Zelensky Formula' at all, it should be completely put aside... If they want, as the president said, let's discuss the principles on which we are ready to negotiate," Lavrov stressed.

At the same time, he added, Switzerland, which has changed from a neutral country to an "openly hostile" one, is not suitable for negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict.

Thus, if negotiations with Kiev begin, Russia has no intention of ceasing hostilities in Ukraine.

"We are ready (for negotiations). But unlike the Istanbul story, we will not have a pause in hostilities during the negotiations. The process must continue. Secondly, of course, the realities on the ground have become different, significantly different," Lavrov said.

Russia was ready to give serious security guarantees to Ukraine at the talks in Istanbul, but realities have changed and this "must be taken into account," the minister added.

Russian Sergey Lavrov emphasized Russia's strong belief in the necessity to persist with the ongoing military operation in Ukraine.

"We are absolutely convinced that we need to continue the special military operation," Lavrov said, adding that Russia is dealing with Ukraine precisely because of the threat it faces and has no confidence in the Ukrainian leadership. The US has failed to achieve its military goals everywhere, the minister said.

On Western Sanctions Against Russia

The West is mindlessly escalating sanctions against Russia without considering the results of such measures, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

"They are escalating these sanctions without any consideration of the consequences. And the consequences were obvious from the very beginning, even before the special military operation, when the 'Crimea' sanctions and others were in force... We have decided not to depend on them in all areas where they can restrict our development, and preferably not in any other areas," the Russian top diplomat said.

On Speculation of Russia's 'Plans' to Attack Europe

Moscow has no reason to attack European nations; their fears of alleged threats from Russia are unfounded, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

"(European countries) only frighten and intimidate... It makes no sense for us to attack them. If they themselves wanted to bring NATO's borders closer to our borders, we will not allow this to happen in Ukraine," Lavrov said.

On Iran-Israel Tensions

Russia has told Israel through diplomatic channels that Iran does not want an escalation, and Russia hopes that Israel shares this view, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

"There have been telephone contacts between the leadership of Russia and Iran, our representatives, and the Israelis. We have very clearly established in these conversations and conveyed to the Israelis that Iran does not want an escalation. It cannot refrain from responding to the most flagrant violation of international law and the status of diplomatic representation, but it does not seek escalation," Lavrov said.

Lavrov noted that all experts interpreted Iran's response to Israel's strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in early April in the same way.

"I hope I am not mistaken that the recent strike by Israel on targets in Isfahan was another response to the response," the minister added.

According to American media reports, Israel carried out a "limited" retaliatory strike on targets in Iran overnight on Friday. Explosions were reported in the area near the city of Isfahan. The Iranian state agency IRIB reported that air defense systems were activated in several provinces of the country against approaching drones. The Tasnim agency said nuclear facilities in Isfahan province were fully secured. Three Iranian officials confirmed to The New York Times that the strikes targeted an air base near Isfahan.

The strike came nearly a week after Iran's massive missile attack on Israel. Commenting on talks about Iran changing its nuclear doctrine, Lavrov said they were a "desire" to shift the focus from Israel's operations in Gaza to threats from Tehran.

"They want to attribute to Iran, among other things, an attack using nuclear weapons, which it does not possess - this is confirmed by the IAEA. Iran is the most inspected country among the participants in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. There is even a fatwa in Iran - it is a postulate of the Supreme Leader that nuclear weapons are prohibited in Iran. Iran does not need to engage in this after responding to the unacceptable attack on the Iranian consulate," Lavrov said.

Earlier, as reported by Iranian media, Ahmad Haghtalab, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps units responsible for the security of Iran's nuclear facilities, stated that the Iranian side could reconsider and deviate from its previously declared nuclear policy.

On Initiative on Creating Palestinian State

Russia wants the Arab countries to take an initiative to create a Palestinian state, Lavrov said.

"The situation is very bad. We want an end to the violence, a solution to the humanitarian problems, and above all, we want the Arab [states] to take the initiative, with the support of all reasonable forces, to take the issue of the establishment of a Palestinian state into their own hands," he said.

On Importance of Eurasian Security Today

The Minister emphasized that Eurasian security is becoming a key issue in the current situation and the door remains open for anyone to participate in relevant talks on this issue.

"The concept of Euro-Atlantic security in its current form has exhausted itself, it is more promising to talk about Eurasian security, which is much more natural, because it is one continent, and no one from across the ocean is involved in this scheme.... We will keep the door open for the western part of the continent, for everyone," Lavrov added.

On Armenia's Area of Responsibility in CSTO Context

Armenia has not yet completed the demarcation of the country's borders, and in such conditions it is too early to talk about the need to indicate the area of responsibility of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Armenia, Sergey Lavrov noted.

"When they say that the CSTO cannot determine where its zone of responsibility is in Armenia, Armenia itself has not yet determined. They have declared that they are ready to respect, together with Azerbaijan, the 1991 borders ... which means that Karabakh is in Azerbaijan. At the same time, they created a delimitation commission. And at the same time, in parallel, [Armenian Prime Minister Nikol] Pashinyan recently announced four non-enclave villages that he is ready to transfer ... But the 1991 borders, which Pashinyan wanted the CSTO to confirm and protect, are not being taken into account," Lavrov said.

It is necessary to talk about the CSTO's obligation to specify its area of responsibility only after the borders of Armenia are determined and the demarcation is completed, the minister added.

Commenting on Pashinyan's words that relations between Yerevan and Moscow are going through difficult times but their importance cannot be overestimated, the Minister said that these are very important words and Russia and Armenia are still allies

"To a certain extent, this is a reaction to the arrogant, shameless actions of the West - primarily the United States and the European Union - to separate Armenia from Russia at an accelerated pace," Lavrov said, adding that Moscow hopes for high-level contacts with Armenia for open discussions without the West's involvement.

Additionally, the Minister said that Armenia benefits the most from cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

"Proportionally, Armenia gets the most benefits. It has been calculated. Thirty-five percent of the Armenian economy is realized through participation in the EAEU. If we take last year, Armenia's trade is about twenty billion dollars, 37% of it is the EAEU, 13% is the EU and 3% is the US," he said.

Asked about the 2020 agreements between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, the minister said that the EU and the USA began to interfere in the trilateral peace agreements immediately after their conclusion.

Asked about the 2020 agreements between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, the minister said that the EU and the USA began to interfere in the trilateral peace agreements immediately after their conclusion.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization is a military alliance consisting of six countries: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The organization aims to promote regional security and stability, as well as to coordinate joint military efforts. The organization has participated in several peacekeeping missions and joint military exercises.

On Moldova Being Dragged Into NATO

The minister touched upon the fact that the West is working aggressively in Moldova, turning President Maia Sandu into a person who is dragging the country into NATO.

"The West is working aggressively, energetically, without recognizing any decency. They are turning Sandu into a person who will simply drag Moldova into NATO, either directly or through a union with Romania," Lavrov said.

Commenting on the situation with the breakaway region of Transnistria, the minister said that some states want to make Transnistria a hotbed of tension.

On Germany's Negligence Prior to Nord Stream Attacks

Germany had no problem finding spies, but missed the preparation of the attacks on the Nord Stream, the foreign minister pointed out.

"They caught some two Germans who were spying... For months, the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, on an infrastructure project that is extremely beneficial for Germany, in the preparation of which - the terrorist attack, I mean - the armed forces, naval and air forces of many NATO countries were involved, it is now in the public domain, all these sketches, no one noticed it. But two citizens who were just preparing, as they said, terrorist attacks were found instantly," Lavrov said.

Earlier in the day, German prosecutors said two dual German-Russian citizens, identified as Dieter S. and Alexander J., had been arrested in the Bavarian city of Bayreuth for allegedly spying on US bases and plotting attacks on military transport routes on behalf of Russia.

On Russia's Invitation to Attend D-Day Anniversary

Russia has not yet received an invitation to participate in the 80th anniversary celebrations of the Normandy landings (also known as D-Day).

"We were not invited. This is their habit. When they want to do something, they cannot stay within the bounds of decency. Because decent people send a letter and then they announce it. And here they say: 'Well, we will invite, yes, but not [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, we will invite someone. But no one has invited anyone," Lavrov said.

On Tuesday, the Mission Liberation public interest group, the organizer of the event, said Russia had been invited to the 80th anniversary of the Normandy Landings.

Ukrainian children ‘kidnapped’ by Moscow found in Germany

FILE PHOTO: Emergency accommodation for refugees at the former Tegel airport in Berlin, Germany.
©Sebastian Gollnow/picture alliance via Getty Images

Allegations by Kiev that Moscow has mass kidnapped Ukrainian children have been exposed as a lie after some of the purported victims were found in the EU, according to Russian children’s rights commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova. She is among the officials to have been accused of abducting youngsters from Ukraine amid the conflict between Moscow and Kiev.

The head of Ukrainian national police, Ivan Vygovsky, on Wednesday hailed the discovery of 161 “children kidnapped by Russia” after they were discovered in Germany. He told the national media that he had discussed the issue with Holger Munch, president of the German Federal Criminal Police (BKA), during a meeting earlier in this week.

When asked for clarification by RT Deutsch, the BKA said its officers had identified the children after they were flagged as “kidnapping” victims by Kiev. Their personal details were checked against German records.

The majority of the youngsters had entered Germany as refugees accompanied by their parents or legal guardians, the police said. In a handful of cases, suspicion of “unlawful transfer” remained, the statement added, without offering further details.

Responding to the revelations, Lvova-Belova said Moscow has “long been drawing the attention of the international community to the fact that Ukraine has created a systemic myth regarding the children, who it claims had been ‘deported’ to Russia.”

Last year, Lvova-Belova was named alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court (ICC) as the key suspects in its investigation into the alleged unlawful deportation and transfer of minors during the Ukraine conflict. Moscow dismissed the claim as politically motivated, arguing that Kiev had lied to the court about what in reality was an evacuation of civilians from areas affected by the hostilities.

In her remarks about the German discoveries, Lvova-Belova said her office had identified multiple cases in which children described by Kiev as abductees were actually residing with their parents at home or in other nations, “never having been separated from their families.”

She expressed hope that the Ukrainian “global disinformation campaign” would eventually stop and that the truth would prevail.

It is not surprising that Ukraine carries out information lies, because most of Ukraine's citizens are Jews and Israelis, as does the State of Israel in Palestine. Carrying out information lies is the basic idea of Jews and Israel's chapter, looking at the history of Prophet Job and Prophet Isa.

AS blokir Palestina untuk menjadi anggota PBB

Wakil Duta Besar AS untuk PBB Robert Wood memberikan suara menentang resolusi yang mengizinkan Palestina menjadi anggota PBB di markas besar PBB di New York, pada 18 April 2024.
©Angela Weiss/AFP

Amerika telah memveto resolusi Dewan Keamanan PBB yang akan membuka jalan bagi Palestina untuk menjadi anggota badan dunia tersebut.

Palestina saat ini menjadi “negara pengamat tetap” (“permanent observer state”) di PBB yang berpartisipasi dalam banyak pertemuan tetapi tidak memiliki hak suara.

Rancangan resolusi yang diperdebatkan pada hari Kamis berisi rekomendasi kepada Majelis Umum PBB untuk mengadakan pemungutan suara mengenai pembaruan status Palestina dalam organisasi tersebut. Dokumen tersebut ditolak dengan 12 suara mendukung, satu menolak, dan dua abstain.

Perwakilan Alternatif AS untuk Urusan Politik Khusus Robert Wood mengatakan bahwa “ada pertanyaan yang belum terselesaikan mengenai apakah [Palestina] memenuhi kriteria untuk dianggap sebagai sebuah negara.” Ia berargumen bahwa Palestina tidak bisa diterima di PBB selama kelompok militan Hamas menguasai Gaza.

Washington terus mendukung solusi dua negara untuk Israel dan Palestina, Wood menekankan.

“Pemungutan suara ini tidak mencerminkan penolakan terhadap negara Palestina, namun merupakan pengakuan bahwa hal itu hanya akan terjadi melalui negosiasi langsung antar pihak,” katanya dalam sebuah pernyataan.

Rancangan tersebut dikritik habis-habisan oleh Duta Besar Israel Gilad Erdan, yang berpendapat bahwa resolusi tersebut “tidak berhubungan dengan kenyataan di lapangan” dan “tidak akan memberikan dampak positif bagi pihak mana pun.” Dia mengecam Otoritas Palestina (PA), yang memerintah Tepi Barat tetapi bukan Gaza, sebagai “entitas pendukung teror yang tidak pantas mendapatkan status apa pun di PBB.”

Speaking at the Security Council, Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said that the vote had shown that “for Washington, [the Palestinians] do not deserve to have their own state.”

“Today’s use of the veto by the US delegation is a hopeless attempt to stop the inevitable course of history. The results of the vote, where Washington was practically in complete isolation, speak for themselves,” Nebenzia said.

Palestinian Ambassador Majed Bamya said after the vote that the PA was “not deterred in our pursuit for Palestinian freedom and independence.”

Sesi Dewan Keamanan berlangsung ketika perang antara Israel dan Hamas di Gaza memasuki bulan ketujuh, dan pemerintah setempat melaporkan bahwa hampir 34.000 warga Palestina telah terbunuh sejak tanggal 7 Oktober. Pertempuran terjadi setelah serangan mendadak oleh Hamas ke wilayah Israel, yang menyebabkan sekitar 1.100 orang tewas dan menyebabkan penangkapan lebih dari 200 sandera.

Hezbollah’s attack on Israeli military command center injures 14

A Lebanese man collects books from a house that was destroyed by an Israeli airstrike, in Mansouri village, south Lebanon, Wednesday, Apr. 17, 2024. (AP Photo)

The Iran-backed Hezbollah launched on Wednesday “a combined attack with guided missiles and explosive drones on a military reconnaissance command center in Arab Al-Aramshe,” as it targeted the Israeli army south of the border with Lebanon.

The group claimed responsibility for the operation, saying that “it is in response to the killing of several resistance fighters in Ain Baal and Shehabiya in southern Lebanon.”

Israeli media outlets announced that “a kamikaze drone struck an Israeli army gathering in Arab Al-Aramshe, western Galilee, resulting in six casualties, at least.”

They added: “An Israeli army helicopter was hit while rescuing the injured in Arab Al-Aramshe.”

The Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya said that it had received 14 injured people.

Hezbollah has adopted new tactics of late. According to a security source, these “were seen last week, when it (Hezbollah) detonated explosive devices targeting Israeli soldiers on the border, injuring four Golani Brigade members.”

The source added that Hezbollah “has taken the confrontations to another level by directly targeting Israeli soldiers.”

Israeli forces launched immediate retaliation by bombing and targeting phosphorus bombs on the border area.

This region included the outskirts of Rachaya Al-Fekhar, Fardis, Al-Habbariyeh, Alma Al-Shaab, Dhahira, Marwahin, and Yarin, as well as the city of Nabatieh, where a house belonging to the Sayyed family was destroyed.

No casualties were reported in the incidents, but the border region has witnessed the Israeli military’s dramatic targeting and killing of two key figures.

Hezbollah is mourning the death of Ismail Youssef Baz, a senior commander of the organization, while the Amal Movement — an ally of Hezbollah — has been coming to terms with the death of Hussein Qasim Karsht.

Israeli media reported that Baz, who was killed in his car following a drone attack, was “the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal sector.”

It added: “He was working on promoting and planning the launching of rockets and anti-tank missiles toward Israel from the Lebanese coastline. During this ongoing war, he organized and planned to carry out various plans against Israel.”

Multiple injuries after Hezbollah strikes Israel – media

Hezbollah militants have shelled Israeli territory from Lebanon, injuring 18 people, local media reported on Wednesday. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the attack, saying that it had retaliated, striking targets in the neighboring country. The Shiite armed group has repeatedly bombarded its southern neighbor since the military conflict between Israel and Hamas broke out last October. Hezbollah launched a volley of missiles at Israel late on Saturday while Iran was conducting its massive aerial attack on the country.

Agence France-Presse estimates that at least 363 people in Lebanon have been killed as a result of the hostilities in recent months, including at least 70 civilians.

On Wednesday, The Times of Israel quoted a statement from the Galilee Medical Center that it had admitted 18 people following a drone strike on Arab al-Aramshe, a predominantly Bedouin village. One of the victims is said to have been in critical condition, while another two were seriously wounded.

Local broadcaster KAN claimed that the Lebanese militants had fired missiles, and not used UAVs. In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday, the IDF confirmed that a “number of launches were identified crossing from Lebanon into northern Israel.”

According to the statement, the Israeli military responded by striking the “sources of the fire and a Hezbollah military compound in southern Lebanon where terrorists were operating.”

Hezbollah, for its part, said that it had targeted an Israeli military air surveillance unit and a gathering of Israeli soldiers as well as a command headquarters. On top of that, the Shiite militant group claims to have damaged an Israeli military vehicle, presumably injuring some of the people inside.

On Sunday, the IDF reported conducting airstrikes on multiple allegedly Hezbollah-related targets in Lebanon. According to a post on its Telegram channel, Israeli warplanes hit a number of other military installations in the south of the country, as well as a “significant” Hezbollah weapons manufacturing site close to the Syrian border.

Airlangga Tegaskan Golkar Berpihak terhadap Anak Muda

Ketua Umum Partai Golkar Airlangga Hartarto menghadiri acara halalbihalal DPP AMPI, di Hotel Double Tree Hilton, Menteng, Jakarta Pusat/Ist

Golkar, Airlangga Hartarto mengaku telah mempercayakan banyak hal kepada Ketua Umum Angkatan Muda Pembaharuan Indonesia (AMPI), Jerry Sambuaga.

Hal ini dikatakan Airlangga saat menghadiri acara halalbihalal DPP AMPI, di Hotel Double Tree Hilton, Menteng, Jakarta Pusat, Selasa, 16/04/2024.

“Golkar mempercayakan kepada Saudara Jerry banyak hal. Pertama saat Mas Jerry lagi jalan-jalan di Plaza Indonesia. Saya tanya, Jer lagi di mana? Dia langsung menghadap. Dan dia mendapat kepercayaan jadi Wamen mewakili Sulawesi Utara. Yang kedua, Jer lagi ngapain? Saya minta dia jadi Ketua Umum AMPI,” kata Airlangga Hartarto yang disambut tawa hadirin.

Tak hanya itu, Jerry juga mendapatkan kepercayaan DPP Partai Golkar untuk menjadi koordinator Golkar Under 40. Gerakan Golkar Under 40 menjadi salah satu ujung tombak terciptanya branding bahwa Partai Golkar sangat ramah terhadap ekosistem politik generasi muda.

“Ada lagi tambahan. Saya bilang, Jer ini kita mau mendorong orang muda, under 40. Saya minta dia jadi koordinator under 40 dalam Pemilu 2024. Dan alhamdulillah, Pak Jerry dipercaya jadi LO Partai Golkar untuk mendampingi Mas Gibran selama masa kampanye,” tambah Menko Perekonomian RI ini.

Airlangga menekankan jika kepercayaan yang diberikan kepada Jerry serta AMPI tak lain sebagai wujud keberpihakan Partai Golkar terhadap generasi muda.

Bahkan Partai Golkar berani memberikan jabatan strategis Menpora RI, kepada kader muda yang juga merupakan mantan Ketua Umum AMPI, Dito Ariotedjo.

“Jadi kepercayaan Partai Golkar terhadap Mas Jerry ini luar biasa. Ditambah lagi Ketua Umum AMPI sebelum Mas Jerry, dijadikan Menpora. Dan Menpora yang termuda sepanjang sejarah republik adalah Ketua Umum AMPI, saudara Dito Ariotedjo. Ini menginspirasi semua anak muda di Indonesia,” tutup Airlangga.

Iran’s strike on Israel was much more successful than it seems. Here’s why

Screen grab from AFPTV showing explosions lighting up the sky over Hebron, West Bank, during an Iranian attack on Israel, April 14, 2024.
©AFPTV/AFP

By Abbas Juma, an international journalist, political commentator, Middle East and Africa specialist

On the night of April 14, Iran and its proxy forces launched a series of cruise missile and kamikaze drone strikes on Israeli territory. The attacks did not come as a surprise. Tehran had warned that it would respond to the Israeli airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria, on April 1, which killed several high-ranking officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals. The retaliatory strike was called Operation True Promise. 

There is still much debate on whether Iran’s retaliatory strike was successful. Most military experts agree that there was nothing unusual about Tehran’s actions, except that this was Iran’s first direct attack on Israel. From a technical point of view, the strategy was simple and correct: Iran first suppressed the enemy’s air defense systems with drones and then launched hypersonic missiles which the Israelis and Americans were not able to intercept. Incidentally, in light of this, Ukraine’s statements about shooting down Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles sound ridiculous.

Do not jump to conclusions

Many experts were skeptical about Iran’s strike and hastened to say that the retaliation did not live up to expectations. Given the clip thinking of most commentators, this reaction is hardly surprising. Their reasoning resembles a Hollywood blockbuster stuffed with special effects, where the end of the world and its miraculous salvation fit into 90-120 minutes, with a love scene in the middle. In real life, things are different. As Sun Tzu wrote in ancient times, to fight 100 battles and win 100 battles is not the height of skill. The best way to win is not to fight at all. This is Iran’s strategy. Its strike against Israel was not so much a military response as a grandmaster’s move in a big chess game. And the game is not over yet. 3

After the attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria’s capital, Tehran found itself in a tough situation. It had to respond in a way that would look convincing and would achieve specific military goals, but would not start World War III.

To achieve the first point, Iran had to carry out a direct strike without resorting exclusively to proxy forces – and that is indeed how it acted. Regarding the second point, even though most of the missiles and drones were indeed shot down, some managed to penetrate Israeli air space and hit military targets. The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, said that the information center on the Israeli-Syrian border and Israel’s Nevatim air base were hit. And finally, as to the third point – war didn’t happen. This resembled the situation in 2020, when the Iranians hit US bases in Iraq in response to the assassination of General Soleimani.

However, it is still too early to speculate as to whether Iran’s attack was a success or not. The big question now is how Israel will respond. 

What Iran has accomplished

It’s important to emphasize that Iran’s operation carried more political than military weight. In this sense, it was carried out subtly and was a success. Obviously, the Iranians did not want to start a war which would involve the US, even though that is what Netanyahu wanted. In other words, Israel didn’t manage to provoke Iran. 

It is also obvious that the Islamic Republic possesses more powerful drones and missiles than those used in the attack on April 14. However, even the less advanced drones and missiles were able to penetrate Israeli air space and inflict economic damage, since Israel spent much more money on shooting down the missiles and drones than Iran spent on launching them. 

Tehran has once again demonstrated that Israel is not invulnerable, and it is possible to attack it. As for the degree of inflicted damage, which some commentators were unsatisfied with, it largely depends on the type of missiles and drones used in the attack – and Iran has a lot of military equipment.

Finally, Iran’s main achievement is that it has managed to confuse Israel in the same way that it was confused after the October 7 Hamas attack. The country has to respond. But how? Should Israel strike Iranian proxy forces? This is possible, but Israel does it all the time without much result. Should it hit Iran directly? But that would start a war which no one is prepared for, including the US.

Conclusion

The ball is now in Israel’s court, and the country faces the same challenges that the Islamic Republic did after April 1. But will Israel be able to solve these challenges as efficiently? 

It is noteworthy that IRGC Commander-in-Chief, Hossein Salami, said that from now on, if Israel attacks the interests of Iran and Iranian citizens, Tehran will strike it again.

This is an important statement. Essentially, the attack carried out by Iran on April 14 was not just a retaliatory strike, but established a new order. Iran demonstrated that it is ready to resort to new means of influence in a situation where words are not sufficient.

It attacked Israel directly not in order to start a war, but to demonstrate what could happen if all other methods of pressure on Israel fail.

A new option has been put forward. Israel may be deprived of its most important advantage – absolute impunity, which until recently had been guaranteed by the US.

Pain at the Pump? Why Military Action or Sanctions Against Iran May Backfire on US & Allies

©AP Photo/Horst Faas

Market watchers warn that oil prices could surge if the latest tit-for-tat between Israel and Iran morphs into a wider regional conflict. If the Biden administration slaps new sanctions on Iran's oil exports, it could send prices higher too, observers say.

On the eve of Iran's retaliatory strike on Israel, oil prices spiked, but slightly backtracked in the aftermath of Tehran's attack. On Monday, Brent retreated 0.9%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 0.8%.

"The impact of Iran’s attack on oil prices was hardly noticeable for the simple reason that the flow of oil from the Gulf region hasn’t been disrupted," Dr. Mamdouh G. Salameh, an international oil economist and a global energy expert, explained to Sputnik. "This could, however, change if Israel retaliates, thus prompting Iran to respond with a harsher retaliation that could lead to a disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz," he noted.

Brent Crude is currently trading around $90 a barrel, yet Salameh predicts that we should be prepared for a potential rally in the near future. He estimates that Brent will fluctuate between $90 and $100 per barrel throughout the year. However, the expert forewarned that in the event of increased tensions between Israel and Iran, the price could surpass $100 and even reach $120 per barrel.

"Iran had no alternative but to retaliate against Israel’s attack on its Consulate in Damascus, Syria in which two high ranking commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed otherwise it would have lost face in the world and would have been depicted as a paper tiger," said Salameh.

"Moreover, Iran warned Israel not to retaliate and that it will get a harsher response if it did. I am convinced that Israel is going to respond in one way or another, but not immediately. So we are now in some sort of calm before the storm. Israel is coming under heavy pressure from the United States and its allies not to respond," the expert continued.

The Biden administration does not want any ratcheting up of tensions between the two arch enemies that could potentially lead to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway is recognized as one of the world's most crucial oil passages, with tankers transporting roughly 17 million barrels of crude oil through it daily, accounting for about one-fifth of the world's total consumption. If the strait were to be blocked, it is likely that global petroleum prices would surge, resulting in increased pain for American consumers at the pump right before the 2024 presidential election.

"However, the Biden administration has signaled that it will impose additional sanctions against Iranian crude oil exports, particularly to China," Salameh noted. "To this effect, the US may also decide to impose restrictions on Chinese financial organizations and banks alleged to be involved in Chinese purchases of Iranian crude," the oil analyst explained.

Axios reported on Tuesday that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is preparing "fresh sanctions" for Iran. The media outlet noted that Yellen is likely to force Western finance ministers at the annual spring IMF meetings this week to coordinate on possible joint actions against Tehran.

American congressmen aren't sitting on their hands, either. According to Bloomberg, House lawmakers are pushing ahead with the Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act of 2023, which envisages tightening the screws on Iranian oil exports and China's purchase of crude or petroleum products from the Islamic Republic. US lawmakers are expressing outrage about the fact that Iran's oil exports have reached a four-year high of 1.5 million barrels per day this year. Around 80% of Iranian crude is sent to China’s independent refiners.

"The truth of the matter is that any additional sanctions on Iran won't fare better than the existing ones," Salameh said.

Restricting Iran's oil exports may boomerang on the Biden administration. With no immediate replacement for the Iranian oil that could be lost, especially since OPEC+ members have decided to keep cutting back on production and exports for the time being, there could be a significant impact on the market. Furthermore, China's bullish economy and high energy demand only serve to exacerbate this situation, as any decrease in oil supply will likely lead to a sudden surge in prices.

Experts warn that since China is one of the largest consumers of Iranian crude, they would have no choice but to fiercely compete for oil from other sources if Iran's exports were to be hampered. This could potentially lead to further instability in the global oil market.

"The China factor got a huge boost yesterday when it was announced that China’s economy grew by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024 beating its own projection of 5.0%," Salameh said. "This very bullish factor will add to growing bullish sentiments about global oil demand which is, anyway, underpinned by solid fundamentals, robust demand and a tightening market."

Despite all the muscle-flexing, the Biden administration is unlikely to take significant action against Iran, believes Michael Rothman, president and founder of Cornerstone Analytics, a US-based consultancy focused on macro-energy research.

"This looked to me as having a near-zero probability given the Biden Administration has actually loosened US compliance measures with existing sanctions on Iran that, in fact, allowed the country’s oil exports to rise over the past year," Rothman said.

Another potential issue that could arise from a rise in oil prices is the risk of inflation increasing. This, in turn, could hinder economic growth in the West and result in delays in rate cuts by Western central banks. In such a situation, any military or economic actions taken against Iran by Israel or NATO countries would be teeming with substantial risks.