Ilustrasi - Petugas menunjukan uang pecahan rupiah dan dolar AS di gerai penukaran mata uang asing VIP (Valuta Inti Prima) Money Changer, Jakarta, hari Selasa, 03/01/2023.
ANTARA FOTO/Muhammad Adimaja/foc/pri.
Nilai tukar (kurs) rupiah yang ditransaksikan antarbank di Jakarta pada awal perdagangan Kamis tergelincir di tengah isu krisis Credit Suisse Bank di Swiss dengan harga sahamnya yang terus turun dan mengalami kesulitan likuiditas.
Rupiah pada Kamis pagi dibuka turun 51 poin atau 0,33 persen ke posisi Rp15.433 per dolar AS dibandingkan posisi pada penutupan perdagangan sebelumnya Rp15.382 per dolar AS.
Pengamat pasar uang Ariston Tjendra kepada ANTARA di Jakarta, Kamis, mengatakan, masalah Credit Suisse Bank memicu kekhawatiran pasar bahwa krisis perbankan Amerika Serikat menyebar ke Eropa. Hal itu mendorong pelaku pasar keluar dari aset berisiko dan masuk ke aset aman seperti emas dan dolar AS.
"Hal ini bisa mendorong pelemahan rupiah sebagai aset berisiko hari ini terhadap dolar AS," kata Ariston.
Dolar AS menguat pada akhir perdagangan Rabu (Kamis pagi WIB), didorong pembelian safe-haven setelah saham Credit Suisse jatuh menyusul pengungkapan "kelemahan" dalam pelaporan keuangannya yang memperbaharui kekhawatiran investor bahwa krisis perbankan global yang meluas mungkin sedang terjadi.
Menyusul kegagalan beberapa bank regional di Amerika Serikat dengan runtuhnya Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) California dan Signature Bank dari New York, saham Credit Suisse anjlok lebih dari 20 persen selama jam perdagangan, memicu kembali kekhawatiran tentang penularan sektor perbankan Amerika Serikat (AS) yang mendunia.
Didirikan pada 1856, Credit Suisse adalah bank terbesar kedua di Swiss, dan memiliki pengaruh penting di pasar modal global. Sejak 2021, bank diganggu oleh berita negatif seperti kerugian investasi. Harga saham Credit Suisse terus turun, dan nilai pasarnya turun drastis.
Pada awal Februari, Credit Suisse membukukan rugi bersih sebesar 7,3 miliar franc Swiss untuk tahun 2022, sedangkan pada tahun 2021 rugi bersihnya sebesar 1,7 miliar franc Swiss.
Saham-saham di Credit Suisse, yang berjuang untuk pulih dari serangkaian skandal, telah terpukul selama 12 bulan terakhir. Saham itu bernilai sekitar 80 franc Swiss pada tahun 2008, tetapi menyusut menjadi 1,55 franc Swiss pada hari Rabu, 15/03/2023.
Penurunan terbaru dipicu ketika pemegang saham terbesarnya, Saudi National Bank, mengatakan tidak dapat memberikan bantuan keuangan lebih lanjut untuk pemberi pinjaman yang kesulitan itu. Klien-klien kaya telah menarik miliaran dari bank.
Credit Suisse sedang melakukan perombakan besar-besaran, memotong biaya dan pekerjaan serta menciptakan bisnis terpisah untuk bank investasinya.
Di sisi lain, Ariston menuturkan pelemahan rupiah bisa tertahan karena krisis perbankan tersebut memperbesar kemungkinan Bank Sentral AS atau The Fed akan menahan suku bunga acuannya atau tidak terlalu agresif menaikkan suku bunganya pada rapat mendatang.
Ia memproyeksikan potensi pelemahan rupiah ke arah Rp15.400 per dolar AS, dengan peluang tertahan di kisaran 15.350 per dolar AS.
Pada hari Rabu, 15/03/2023 rupiah ditutup menguat tiga poin atau 0,02 persen ke posisi Rp15.382 per dolar AS dibandingkan posisi pada penutupan perdagangan sebelumnya Rp15.385 per dolar AS.
Credit Suisse secures $54 bln lifeline as authorities rush to prevent global bank crisis
The Credit Suisse logo adorns a sign at the entrance to their campus in Research Triangle Park in Morrisville, North Carolina, U.S., March 15, 2023. REUTERS/Jonathan Drake
Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) on Thursday said it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss central bank to shore up its liquidity and investor confidence after a slump in its shares intensified fears about a global financial crisis.
The Swiss bank's announcement helped stem heavy selling in financial markets in Asian morning trade on Thursday, following torrid sessions in Europe and the United States overnight as investors fretted about a run on global bank deposits.
In its statement early Thursday, Credit Suisse said it would exercise its option to borrow from the Swiss National Bank up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($54 billion). That followed assurances from authorities in the private banking hub on Wednesday that Credit Suisse met "the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks" and that it could access central bank liquidity if needed.
Credit Suisse is the first major global bank to be given such a lifeline since the 2008 financial crisis - though central banks have extended liquidity more generally to banks during times of market stress including the coronavirus pandemic.
Asian stocks were hit by Wall Street's tumble on Thursday and investors bought gold, bonds and the dollar. While the bank's announcement helped trim some of those losses, trade was volatile and sentiment fragile.
"It does help. It removes an immediate risk. But it confronts us with another choice. The more we do this, the more we blunt monetary policy, the more we have to live with higher inflation -- and what is it going to be?" said Damien Boey, Chief Equity Strategist at Barrenjoey in Sydney.
"Do bailouts make things better? On the one hand, you are removing a source of risk to the markets which is a clear and present danger. On the other hand we are feeding into this paradigm of monetary policy bucking within itself."
The Swiss bank's problems have shifted the focus for investors and regulators from the United States to Europe, where Credit Suisse led a selloff in bank shares after its largest investor said it could not provide more financial assistance because of regulatory constraints.
The concerns about Credit Suisse added to broader banking sector fears sparked by last week's collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) and Signature Bank, two U.S. mid-size firms.
Credit Suisse's borrowing will be made under the covered loan facility and a short-term liquidity facility, fully collateralised by high quality assets. It also announced offers for senior debt securities for cash of up to 3 billion francs.
"This additional liquidity would support Credit Suisse’s core businesses and clients as Credit Suisse takes the necessary steps to create a simpler and more focused bank built around client needs," the bank said.
Investor focus is also on any action by central banks and other regulators elsewhere to restore confidence in the banking system as well as any exposure businesses may have to Credit Suisse.
SVP's demise last week, followed by that of Signature Bank two days later, sent global bank stocks on a roller-coaster ride this week, with investors discounting assurances from U.S. President Joe Biden and emergency steps giving banks access to more funding.
FINMA and the Swiss central bank said there were no indications of a direct risk of contagion for Swiss institutions from U.S. banking market turmoil.
On Wednesday, Credit Suisse shares led a 7% fall in the European banking index (.SX7P), while five-year credit default swaps (CADS) for the flagship Swiss bank hit a new record high.
The investor exit for the doors prompted fears of a broader threat to the financial system, and two supervisory sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank had contacted banks on its watch to quiz them about their exposures to Credit Suisse.
The U.S. Treasury also said it is monitoring the situation around Credit Suisse and is in touch with global counterparts, a Treasury spokesperson said.
Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics
FLIGHT TO SAFETY
Rapid rises in interest rates have made it harder for some businesses to pay back or service loans, increasing the chances of losses for lenders who are also worried about a recession.
Traders are now betting that the Federal Reserve, which just last week was expected to accelerate its interest-rate-hike campaign in the face of persistent inflation, may be forced to hit pause and even reverse course.
Bets on a large European Central Bank interest-rate hike at Thursday's meeting also evaporated quickly as the Credit Suisse rout fanned fears about the health of Europe's banking sector. Money market pricing suggested traders now saw less than a 20% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike at the ECB meeting.
Unease sparked by SVP's demise has also prompted depositors to seek out new homes for their cash.
Ralph Hammers, CEO of Credit Suisse rival UBS said market turmoil has steered more money its way and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) CEO Christian Sewing said that the German lender has also seen incoming deposits.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reached out to his Russian counterpart, Sergey Shoigu, on Wednesday, for the first time in months, to discuss the incident in which an American spy drone went down in the Black Sea waters off Crimea.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Shoigu told Austin that the incident was caused by the Americans violating the airspace restriction declared by Russia, with all the proper international notifications in place. Shoigu called US drone flights off the Russian coast “provocative in nature” and risked an escalation of tensions in the Black Sea.
While Russia does not desire such a development, it will “continue to respond proportionately to all provocations,” Shoigu said. He added that the two nuclear powers “must act as responsibly as possible,” which includes keeping a military channel open to discuss any crisis.
Speaking at a Pentagon press briefing, Austin confirmed that he made the call, and said it was “important that great powers be models of transparency and communication.” However, he insisted the US would “continue to fly and to operate wherever international law allows.”
The last time Shoigu and Austin spoke was in October 2022, according to AP. The top military officers also had a phone call about the matter, with US General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reaching out to his Russian counterpart, General Valery Gerasimov.
On Tuesday, the US European Command claimed that two Russian Su-27 jets conducted an “an unsafe and unprofessional intercept” of a MQ-9 Reaper drone, which was conducting an intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance (ISR) mission in international waters over the Black Sea. According to the US military, one of the planes struck the drone’s propeller, causing the operators to ditch the UAV into the water.
The Russian Defense Ministry, however, said that at no point did any of the interceptors make contact with the drone, or use their on-board weapons. The UAV stalled and crashed after executing an abrupt maneuver, Moscow said.
Russian ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov said he told the State Department that US drones have no business so close to the Russian border. The drone was reportedly just 60 kilometers off the coast of Crimea when it crashed.
The US has flown drones and other surveillance aircraft near the Russian border for over a year, providing intelligence and targeting information to the Ukrainian government – along with weapons, ammunition and money – while insisting it is not a party to the conflict. Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Security Council, said on Wednesday that the drone incident was “yet another confirmation” the US was directly involved.
What Message Does Black Sea Reaper Crash Send About US Spying Missions and Double Standards?
The US MQ-9 Reaper drone fell in the Black Sea after engaging in a sharp maneuvering as Russian fighter jets were scrambled to identify the aircraft flying in the direction of Crimea with its transponders turned off. The US European Command raised the alarm, apparently forgetting how the US Air Forces unleashed a war on "balloons" last month.
"The United States and NATO have created an already intolerable situation around Russian borders, especially in the Black Sea region. They are present there in different capacities. There are [US/NATO] reconnaissance aircraft and drones [in the region]," Ivan Konovalov, a military expert and political analyst, told Sputnik.
The US MQ-9 Reaper drone that fell into the Black Sea on Tuesday morning was a sophisticated and very powerful aircraft of a strategic class, the Russian military expert stressed.
"NATO combat aircraft are also periodically present there," Konovalov continued. "The actions of Russian aviation are completely justified. And the objections from the American or NATO side are simply ridiculous. We always have a question: what are you doing there at all?"
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the airspace control of the Russian Aerospace Forces had recorded the flight of US unmanned aerial vehicle MQ-9 over the Black Sea in the region of the Crimean peninsula on the morning of March 14. The drone was flying with its transponders turned off in the direction of the Russian border.
As per the MoD, the aircraft violated the boundaries of the area of the temporary regime for the use of airspace, established for the purpose of conducting a special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace and published in accordance with international standards.
To identify the intruder, Russian fighter jets rushed to the area; for its part, the MQ-9 started maneuvering over the Black Sea, went into uncontrolled flight with a loss of altitude and, eventually, crashed. The MoD emphasized that the Russian jet fighters neither used airborne weapons against the drone nor came into contract with the UAV.
The loss of the Reaper in the Black Sea made a splash among the US European Command (EUCOM). They issued a release insisting the incident involved a Russian Su-27 aircraft, which allegedly struck the drone’s propeller during an "unsafe and unprofessional intercept" over the Black Sea.
"[H]ad they touched the [drone's] propeller, I think it would have been a catastrophe not only for that drone, but for the Russian Sukhoi as well. So it was only, I think, pushed by the exhaustion from the engine of the Sukhoi aircraft," Dr. Victor Mizin, a political scientist with the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University, told Sputnik, rubbishing the US' account of the events.
Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov was summoned to the US State Department over the US drone crash incident. Antonov made it clear that Moscow expects Washington to stop flights near Russian borders. According to the Russian diplomat, it is no secret that US UAVs "gather intelligence which is later used by the Kiev regime to attack [Russia's] Armed Forces and territory," despite the assertions from Washington that the US and NATO don't want to be involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
"Their main goals are reconnaissance and intelligence gathering," Konovalov said.
"They have enough opportunities for this. And, accordingly, how should the Russian side perceive such actions? (…) American readers should be aware that a substantial number of US and NATO-owned aircraft are hovering like flies in neutral air zones around Russian borders. And [the Americans] also need to understand that the same reconnaissance drones, for example, have equipment that can view Russian territory far inland. And how should one react? Imagine that Russian drones of the same type will fly along the American borders. What will the Americans do?"
Joe Biden's recent "war of balloons" clearly indicated how sensitive the Americans are about foreign aircraft approaching the US' borders.
On February 4, the US Air Force shot down a meteorological device owned by China under the pretext that the balloon that violated US air space was a "surveillance" device. As per Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the balloon was used by the People’s Republic of China "in an attempt to surveil strategic sites in the continental United States." Beijing had repeatedly stressed that the airship had nothing to do with spying and qualified the US decision to shoot the balloon down as overreaction and hysteria.
As if that were not enough, the US military proceeded with downing other unidentified aerial objects hovering over North America in the subsequent week. In mid-February, US President Biden admitted that the unidentified airships were not spy devices dispatched by China but rather aircraft operated by private companies or research institutions.
However, the US leadership demonstrated nothing short of righteous indignation when it came to the loss of the MQ-9.
"These double standards, they have always been there," Igor Istomin, lead research fellow at the Center for Advanced American Studies, MGIMO University, told Sputnik. "[T]his is not the first American drone shot down, and they had incidents with Iran, there were incidents a few years ago with China, and there was an underwater drone with China being accused of ruining it. The United States openly proclaims that it believes that its military has the right to operate around the world, and that this is good [for everyone]. According to them, this ensures security, democracy, and freedom for the whole world (…) I think that a significant part of the American elites do not have any sense of dissonance with what has happened."
Double standards is one of the major characteristic features of American foreign policy, echoed Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at Russia’s Higher School of Economics and deputy director of research at the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.
"The United States used military force and used their aviation in order to destroy Chinese civilian meteorological balloons, which did not pose any military danger to the United States, just because those balloons were above the United States or approaching the American territory. At the same time, the United States criticized Russia for intercepting their military drone, which is basically an attack drone and it is also an instrument of espionage," Suslov told Sputnik.
Without question, the United States was conducting an intelligence operation in the Black Sea region near Crimea. It was only a happy accident that this drone was unarmed. But Reapers, they can be used as attack drones, they can be armed. So the military threat, which the approximation of this Reaper drone posed to Russia, was absolutely real and the Russian actions were, without question, legitimate.
What's more, the US and NATO are routinely testing waters near the Russian borders, said Ivan Konovalov. To illustrate his point he particularly cited an incident involving the British RC-135 reconnaissance plane in October 2022.
The Russian MoD had warned the UK against a planned spy plane flight over Russian territory but Britain nonetheless sent the aircraft, something that was seen by Moscow as a clear provocation. A Russian fighter jet was scrambled to intercept the British RC-135 that crossed the Russian border near the Svyatoi Nos cape between the Barents Sea and the White Sea.
The question then arises as to whether the Black Sea incident will generate any consequences and if so, what they could be. Sputnik's interlocutors believe that the aerial accident won't prevent the US and its NATO allies from beefing up their military presence in the Black Sea or proceeding with their spying missions in line with the Biden administration's declared objectives.
Furthermore, they also expect that the recent development will be used by the United States and European leaders in order to accelerate their military assistance to the Kiev regime.
"[U]nfortunately, it's not the first and it's not the last [incident], because such kind of monitoring is going on, especially when Russia is in open military conflict in Ukraine," Dr. Victor Mizin said. "And of course, we already have seen many NATO reconnaissance aircraft like Poseidon and others close to the Russian borders, both in the region of [the] Baltics and also in the Black Sea."
"My good friends from [the] European Leadership Network have been monitoring this kind of overflight incidents when the aircraft or naval vessels of NATO and Russia are coming close to each other's borders and they are calculating the potential hazardous ramifications. Because, of course, when it goes about the states with nuclear weapons that NATO has nuclear weapons, and Russia does too, of course. Such incidents are fraught with dire consequences," the political scientist underscored.
It is likely that the United States will be strengthening their military presence in both the Baltics and Black Sea regions disregarding the recent incident, Suslov believes. Mizin shares the same concerns, presuming that there would be more troops stationed both in adjacent countries like Poland and the Baltic states; there would be more foreign troops, mostly from the United States, probably Britain, other European, NATO countries; and more money would be invested into military programs.
"[The Biden administration] assumes that raising stakes and increasing pressure will work to exhaust Russia. The scenario of a direct military confrontation, I emphasize once again, is regarded by the United States as undesirable," Istomin suggested.
Nonetheless, the increase of US military posture and presence in the territories adjacent to Russia will increase the risks of such incidents, and will increase the risk of direct military clashes, both intended and especially unintended, according to Suslov.
"The more the United States are present militarily in the Baltic and Black Sea regions, the greater are the risks of inadvertent war between Russia and NATO, which will inevitably be followed by a nuclear escalation," Suslov warned.
On the other hand, the aerial incident over the Black Sea may strengthen the positions of those in the West who claim that the United States should exercise restraint, and that there should be and must be strong limits of the US military assistance to Ukraine, according to Suslov.
He believes that in the short term prospect, the United States may avoid approximations of their espionage and attack drones over the Russian territory and reduce the intensity of flights of Reapers and other manned and unmanned American aviation near Russian borders.
Internal Political Fight Over US Proxy War in Ukraine
Meanwhile, the Black Sea incident could backfire on the Biden administration as the GOP and Dems are bracing for the primaries, according to the observers.
"Internally this incident will strengthen the position of those in the United States who argue in favor of more restraint, who claim that the risks of direct military clash between NATO and Russia are real, not illusionary," suggested Suslov. "And thus, in order to avoid the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict into full-fledged World War III, the United States must exercise more restraint. This is a position which is exemplified by the two major Republican candidates to the next presidential elections in the United States, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis."
Even though Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has not officially declared his intent to participate in the 2024 elections, he has already made a very unequivocal statement claiming that the United States must revise its approach towards the Ukrainian conflict and exercise more restraint in order to avoid being drawn into the direct hot war with Russia, Suslov remarked.
The US MQ-9 Reaper drone fell in the Black Sea after engaging in a sharp maneuvering as Russian fighter jets were scrambled to identify the aircraft flying in the direction of Crimea with its transponders turned off. The US European Command raised the alarm, apparently forgetting how the US Air Forces unleashed a war on "balloons" last month.
"The United States and NATO have created an already intolerable situation around Russian borders, especially in the Black Sea region. They are present there in different capacities. There are [US/NATO] reconnaissance aircraft and drones [in the region]," Ivan Konovalov, a military expert and political analyst, told Sputnik.
The US MQ-9 Reaper drone that fell into the Black Sea on Tuesday morning was a sophisticated and very powerful aircraft of a strategic class, the Russian military expert stressed.
"NATO combat aircraft are also periodically present there," Konovalov continued. "The actions of Russian aviation are completely justified. And the objections from the American or NATO side are simply ridiculous. We always have a question: what are you doing there at
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the airspace control of the Russian Aerospace Forces had recorded the flight of US unmanned aerial vehicle MQ-9 over the Black Sea in the region of the Crimean peninsula on the morning of March 14. The drone was flying with its transponders turned off in the direction of the Russian border.
As per the MoD, the aircraft violated the boundaries of the area of the temporary regime for the use of airspace, established for the purpose of conducting a special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace and published in accordance with international standards.
To identify the intruder, Russian fighter jets rushed to the area; for its part, the MQ-9 started maneuvering over the Black Sea, went into uncontrolled flight with a loss of altitude and, eventually, crashed. The MoD emphasized that the Russian jet fighters neither used airborne weapons against the drone nor came into contract with the UAV.
The loss of the Reaper in the Black Sea made a splash among the US European Command (EUCOM). They issued a release insisting the incident involved a Russian Su-27 aircraft, which allegedly struck the drone’s propeller during an "unsafe and unprofessional intercept" over the Black Sea.
"[H]ad they touched the [drone's] propeller, I think it would have been a catastrophe not only for that drone, but for the Russian Sukhoi as well. So it was only, I think, pushed by the exhaustion from the engine of the Sukhoi aircraft," Dr. Victor Mizin, a political scientist with the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University, told Sputnik, rubbishing the US' account of the events.
Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov was summoned to the US State Department over the US drone crash incident. Antonov made it clear that Moscow expects Washington to stop flights near Russian borders. According to the Russian diplomat, it is no secret that US UAVs "gather intelligence which is later used by the Kiev regime to attack [Russia's] Armed Forces and territory," despite the assertions from Washington that the US and NATO don't want to be involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
"Their main goals are reconnaissance and intelligence gathering," Konovalov said. "They have enough opportunities for this. And, accordingly, how should the Russian side perceive such actions? (…) American readers should be aware that a substantial number of US and NATO-owned aircraft are hovering like flies in neutral air zones around Russian borders. And [the Americans] also need to understand that the same reconnaissance drones, for example, have equipment that can view Russian territory far inland. And how should one react? Imagine that Russian drones of the same type will fly along the American borders. What will the Americans do?"
A US weather balloon launched to gather weather data close to the Meyers Fire area in Montana in September 2017 - Sputnik International, 1920, 14.02.2023
Analysis
Joe Biden's recent "war of balloons" clearly indicated how sensitive the Americans are about foreign aircraft approaching the US' borders.
On February 4, the US Air Force shot down a meteorological device owned by China under the pretext that the balloon that violated US air space was a "surveillance" device. As per Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the balloon was used by the People’s Republic of China "in an attempt to surveil strategic sites in the continental United States." Beijing had repeatedly stressed that the airship had nothing to do with spying and qualified the US decision to shoot the balloon down as overreaction and hysteria.
As if that were not enough, the US military proceeded with downing other unidentified aerial objects hovering over North America in the subsequent week. In mid-February, US President Biden admitted that the unidentified airships were not spy devices dispatched by China but rather aircraft operated by private companies or research institutions.
However, the US leadership demonstrated nothing short of righteous indignation when it came to the loss of the MQ-9.
"These double standards, they have always been there," Igor Istomin, lead research fellow at the Center for Advanced American Studies, MGIMO University, told Sputnik. "[T]his is not the first American drone shot down, and they had incidents with Iran, there were incidents a few years ago with China, and there was an underwater drone with China being accused of ruining it. The United States openly proclaims that it believes that its military has the right to operate around the world, and that this is good [for everyone]. According to them, this ensures security, democracy, and freedom for the whole world (…) I think that a significant part of the American elites do not have any sense of dissonance with what has happened."
Double standards is one of the major characteristic features of American foreign policy, echoed Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at Russia’s Higher School of Economics and deputy director of research at the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.
"The United States used military force and used their aviation in order to destroy Chinese civilian meteorological balloons, which did not pose any military danger to the United States, just because those balloons were above the United States or approaching the American territory. At the same time, the United States criticized Russia for intercepting their military drone, which is basically an attack drone and it is also an instrument of espionage," Suslov told Sputnik.
Without question, the United States was conducting an intelligence operation in the Black Sea region near Crimea. It was only a happy accident that this drone was unarmed. But Reapers, they can be used as attack drones, they can be armed. So the military threat, which the approximation of this Reaper drone posed to Russia, was absolutely real and the Russian actions were, without question, legitimate.
Deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at Russia’s Higher School of Economics and deputy director of research at the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.
What's more, the US and NATO are routinely testing waters near the Russian borders, said Ivan Konovalov. To illustrate his point he particularly cited an incident involving the British RC-135 reconnaissance plane in October 2022.
The Russian MoD had warned the UK against a planned spy plane flight over Russian territory but Britain nonetheless sent the aircraft, something that was seen by Moscow as a clear provocation. A Russian fighter jet was scrambled to intercept the British RC-135 that crossed the Russian border near the Svyatoi Nos cape between the Barents Sea and the White Sea.
An MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle - Sputnik International, 1920, 15.03.2023
Potential Consequences of US Drone Crash
The question then arises as to whether the Black Sea incident will generate any consequences and if so, what they could be. Sputnik's interlocutors believe that the aerial accident won't prevent the US and its NATO allies from beefing up their military presence in the Black Sea or proceeding with their spying missions in line with the Biden administration's declared objectives.
Furthermore, they also expect that the recent development will be used by the United States and European leaders in order to accelerate their military assistance to the Kiev regime.
"[U]nfortunately, it's not the first and it's not the last [incident], because such kind of monitoring is going on, especially when Russia is in open military conflict in Ukraine," Dr. Victor Mizin said. "And of course, we already have seen many NATO reconnaissance aircraft like Poseidon and others close to the Russian borders, both in the region of [the] Baltics and also in the Black Sea."
"My good friends from [the] European Leadership Network have been monitoring this kind of overflight incidents when the aircraft or naval vessels of NATO and Russia are coming close to each other's borders and they are calculating the potential hazardous ramifications. Because, of course, when it goes about the states with nuclear weapons that NATO has nuclear weapons, and Russia does too, of course. Such incidents are fraught with dire consequences," the political scientist underscored.
It is likely that the United States will be strengthening their military presence in both the Baltics and Black Sea regions disregarding the recent incident, Suslov believes. Mizin shares the same concerns, presuming that there would be more troops stationed both in adjacent countries like Poland and the Baltic states; there would be more foreign troops, mostly from the United States, probably Britain, other European, NATO countries; and more money would be invested into military programs.
"[The Biden administration] assumes that raising stakes and increasing pressure will work to exhaust Russia. The scenario of a direct military confrontation, I emphasize once again, is regarded by the United States as undesirable," Istomin suggested.
Nonetheless, the increase of US military posture and presence in the territories adjacent to Russia will increase the risks of such incidents, and will increase the risk of direct military clashes, both intended and especially unintended, according to Suslov.
"The more the United States are present militarily in the Baltic and Black Sea regions, the greater are the risks of inadvertent war between Russia and NATO, which will inevitably be followed by a nuclear escalation," Suslov warned.
On the other hand, the aerial incident over the Black Sea may strengthen the positions of those in the West who claim that the United States should exercise restraint, and that there should be and must be strong limits of the US military assistance to Ukraine, according to Suslov.
He believes that in the short term prospect, the United States may avoid approximations of their espionage and attack drones over the Russian territory and reduce the intensity of flights of Reapers and other manned and unmanned American aviation near Russian borders.
Ukrainian soldiers ride on a armored personnel vehicle outside the eastern Ukrainian city of Debaltseve - Sputnik International, 1920, 08.03.2023
Analysis
Meanwhile, the Black Sea incident could backfire on the Biden administration as the GOP and Dems are bracing for the primaries, according to the observers.
"Internally this incident will strengthen the position of those in the United States who argue in favor of more restraint, who claim that the risks of direct military clash between NATO and Russia are real, not illusionary," suggested Suslov. "And thus, in order to avoid the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict into full-fledged World War III, the United States must exercise more restraint. This is a position which is exemplified by the two major Republican candidates to the next presidential elections in the United States, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis."
Even though Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has not officially declared his intent to participate in the 2024 elections, he has already made a very unequivocal statement claiming that the United States must revise its approach towards the Ukrainian conflict and exercise more restraint in order to avoid being drawn into the direct hot war with Russia, Suslov remarked.
In addition, the US drone crash may also lessen the Biden administration's apparent appetite in arming the Kiev regime with F-16 in the distant future. Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers have repeatedly called on the Biden administration to arm the Ukrainian military with the fighters. Earlier, it was reported that a few Ukrainian pilots were being evaluated for operating American fighter jets in the US.
"The prospects of the supplies of F-16 to Ukraine have been minor before this incident. After this incident, those prospects are just non-existent because again, the risks of a direct military clash with Russia proved to be real," said Suslov.
For his part, Mizin does not rule out that American hawks will try to use the recent incident in the Black Sea in order to bolster the anti-Russian sentiment and try to re-invigorate the fading enthusiasm among the US public for aiding Kiev.
"Even before the incident and probably much more, so to say, using it or profiting from it, there are some calls that actually the United States or NATO should provide F-16s to bolster, to prop up Kiev’s military capabilities. And so I think that this drive, this push to break out of this situation of restraint and to provide Kiev with aircraft now will be only growing."
Two French journalists were given a one-year suspended prison sentence and a 10,000 euro fine in Paris on Tuesday, found guilty of trying to blackmail the King of Morocco in 2015 by demanding money in return for the non-publication of a book.
Eric Laurent and Catherine Graciet were accused of seeking to extort several million euros from King Mohammed VI in 2015 in exchange for not publishing an embarrassing book on the Moroccan royal family.
The journalists, whose lawyers immediately appealed, denied having made any threat but admitted having made an "ethical error" by accepting a proposal for a financial arrangement from Rabat.
Reports say the journalists then accepted payment of 80,000 euros and signed a commitment not to write anything more on Morocco.
Already authors in 2012 of a book on Mohammed VI, "The Predatory King", Eric Laurent and Catherine Graciet , aged 76 and 48 today, had signed a contract for a second volume on the same subject.
In November 2017, the Court of Cassation, the highest French court, had recognized the validity of two recordings at the origin of the indictment of the two journalists. The judgment of the Court of Cassation had dismissed the two journalists’ appeal to invalidate these recordings.
In addition to the recordings, the two journalists had been arrested by the French police in Paris, each holding 40,000 euros in their pockets, after they signed and handed over a document to a Moroccan lawyer.
In this document, they asked for two million euros not to publish a book hostile to Morocco and to stop “systematically harming Morocco by their writings and actions.”
At the origin of this embarrassing affair for French journalists, Eric Laurent had contacted the King’s private secretariat to announce that he was about to publish, with Catherine Graciet, a book on Morocco. However, he hinted that they were ready to give up publishing the book in exchange for three million euros.
Morocco then organized meetings in Paris between the journalist and a lawyer representing the Moroccan side, during which Eric Laurent’s remarks were recorded. At the same time, Morocco had referred the case to French justice.
It was during a third meeting, held under the supervision of the French police, that an early payment of 80,000 euros was given to the two journalists, who accepted the money by signing a commitment not to write anything more on Morocco.
Eric Laurent, former correspondent for “Radio France” and “Le Figaro” magazine and author of several books, who is currently 75 years old, admitted, before the Paris Criminal Court on Monday, to a “moral error,” because, he said, he “agreed to be involved in this case,” but refuted “any criminal offense.”
Rhoma Irama ditegur kru Deep Purple imbas mainkan intro Smoke on the Water. Insiden ini terjadi saat Raja Dangdut itu menjadi pembuka konser band rock tersebut. Foto/Twitter @swetermerah
Insiden Rhoma Irama ditegur Deep Purple sekalipun masalahnya adalah kesalahpahaman, namun ini memberikan gambaran dari berbagai bagian gambaran potret dari sekian potret barat yang mencerminkan tidak memiliki etika.
Kalau ada pakar Indonesia yang menyatakan, apa yang dilakukan Deep Purpel itu wajar, karena masalah kondisi seorang musisi membawakan atau menyanyikan lagu milik musisi lain tanpa izin dan membayar royalti. Itu pakar yang hilang budaya ketimurannya.
Sebab jika kejadiannya bukan satu kesalahpahaman, dalam arti lagu yang akan dibawakan dari lagu milik Deep Purple dinyanyikan secara utuh dan itu betul melanggar, tidak seharusnya bahkan tidak perlu secara arogan menghentikan seorang musisi lain membawakan lagu tersebut.
Deep Purple bisa melayangkan tuntutan kepada panitia, setelah acara usai sehingga tidak merusak suasana acara bahkan merendahkan musisi Indonesia oleh para musisi barat.
Karena tidak ada seorang musisi membawakan lagu tidak diketahui oleh panitia lagu apa saja yang akan dibawakannya.
Sedangkan kejadiannya saat itu tidak demikian, hanya insiden kesalahpahaman, bahwa Soneta Grup tidak membawa lagu tersebut secara utuh.
Sekalipun demikian hal yang tidak kurang etis, insiden yang terjadi saat itu yang dilakukan oleh Deep Purple. Ini juga mempertegas gaya arogan orang barat dan kurang memiliki etika pada umumnya, yang lebih jauh mereka itu selalu memandang rendah bangsa lainnya terutama bangsa - bangsa dunia ketiga.
Sangatlah pantas jika Rhoma Irama juga melayangkan protes ke Panitia dan Deep Purple, namun itu tidak dilakukan sama sekali oleh Rhoma Irama. Ini menunjukkan bahwa, sikap pada Rhoma Irama sebagai orang timur yang memiliki etika yang menjunjung adab dan moral, serta dibekali nilai - nilai agama Islam yang Islami.
