China's Saudi-Iran Deal Indicates US No Longer Pulling Mideast Strings

© AP Photo / Nournews

Saudi Arabia and Iran held a high-level meeting in Beijing on April 6 and signed an agreement to reopen embassies and consulates following a breakthrough deal to end years of hostilities last month, mediated by China.

"Iran has been trying to reestablish relations with Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states for a number of years, as made evident in President Rouhani’s 2019 proposal called the Hormuz Peace Endeavor, or HOPE," Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Sputnik.

"President Raisi came to office declaring that improving relations with Iran’s Arab neighbors was also a top priority. The question then becomes: Why did the Saudis decide on normalization of relations now?"

As per Kamrava, a few factors are at play here: first, the Iranians may help the Saudis to settle their longstanding conflict with the Houthis in Yemen; second, Saudi Arabia has realized that Iran is "a permanent neighbor, whereas the United States is an impermanent friend."

Both Tehran and Riyadh were interested in ending hostilities, echoed Iranian-American activist and scholar Leila Zand.

"So on one hand we have Iran that is suffering from the financial conditions that they are dealing with due to sanctions and they want to break the isolation and come back to the community, the international community," Zand told Sputnik. "On the other hand, we have Saudi Arabia looking for the project they have for 2030 year [Vision 2030 – Sputnik]. (…) Both of these sides make them to just be ready for a direct negotiation and direct dialogue. And I guess it has the positive consequences and positive impact for the whole region, not for if not only for the two nations."

On March 10, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced that they had agreed to re-establish diplomatic ties after years of hostilities. At the time, the two Middle Eastern powers signaled their intent to re-open their respective embassies and re-implement a 22-year old security pact under which Tehran and Riyadh agreed to cooperate on terrorism, drug-smuggling and money-laundering.

China's Role as Peace Broker

The breakthrough became China's first major diplomatic victory in the Middle Eastern region which has long been considered Washington's domain of influence.

"This is certainly a significant accomplishment for Chinese diplomacy, and perhaps the start of a more proactive diplomatic posture that China will take in future regional issues in the Persian Gulf and the broader Middle East," said Kamrava.

The professor admitted that Beijing's mediation of the Middle Eastern row had come out of the blue: "China has traditionally not been a diplomatic presence in the Middle East, and this is an important development," he noted.

The professor admitted that Beijing's mediation of the Middle Eastern row had come out of the blue: "China has traditionally not been a diplomatic presence in the Middle East, and this is an important development," he noted.

Earlier, Beijing maintained working relations with both powers. In March 2021, China concluded a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with Iran. "Both Iran and Saudi Arabia, of course, trade a great deal with China, and therefore there is significant influence that China can bring to bear on both states," the professor noted.

"The major difference between China and the United States seems to be in the relatively hands-off approach that China is adopting. One doesn’t see Chinese officials linking their diplomacy with calling for regime change, as the United States has so often done. However, this does not mean that China will necessarily be able to resolve other conflicts, simply because of the very complex nature of some of these. However, any fair diplomatic method should be encouraged," M. V. Ramana, the Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human Security at the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs and the director of the Liu Institute for Global Issues at the University of British Columbia, told Sputnik.

Beijing has its own interest in mediating peace in the troublesome Middle Eastern region: on the one hand, it needs interrupted energy deliveries from the Persian Gulf; on the other hand, the region plays an important part in Beijing's ambitious Belt and Road Project.

"China is building the New Silk Road, that's going to take Iran through the Middle East onto Europe," Ahmed Al Ibrahim, a Riyadh-based political analyst, told Sputnik. "So this is also something that to look forward to, economically in order, basically, to zero that whole region's problem. So China has a lot to do with that, and China wants to give to the region the trust that America has not given, and they want it to work."

China sees peace as a vital condition for both domestic and global economic development. To that end, the Chinese leadership issued the country's new Global Security Initiative. The document, which was published in late February, lays out practical measures to address current security challenges and maintain peace around the world.

"Since Xi Jinping became president ten years ago, China has been on a 365-days-a-year diplomatic onslaught across every nook and cranny on Earth, while being one of KSA’s most loyal hydrocarbon customers," Jeff J. Brown, author of The China Trilogy, editor at China Rising Radio Sinoland and co-founder and curator of the Bioweapon Truth Commission, told Sputnik. "Thus, official and commercial ties are underestimated by the West and off the mainstream radar. What pushed China to move into the limelight is, of course, the West’s self-inflicted disaster in Ukraine and the global majority’s refusal to heed NATO’s sanctions. In any case, Chinese relations have always been about mutual benefit and respect, going back millennia."

US Losing Grip in Middle East

The Saudi-Iranian deal brokered by China is a clear indication that Washington is losing its grip in the Middle East and elsewhere in the word, according to Mehran Kamrava.

"The American influence in the Middle East, and elsewhere in the world, is on the decline, and Saudi Arabia’s decision to normalize ties with Iran is definitely an indication of that," Kamrava said. "By itself, Iran-Saudi normalization does not indicate the emergence of a multipolar world, so Saudi Arabia is still likely to remain fundamentally in the American orbit. But what we do see is a greater degree of willingness to defy implicit, and perhaps even explicit, American wishes and strategic objectives."

One should bear in mind that up until nowadays the United States has been the only power where it called itself as a mediator in various areas in the Middle East, including Israel, Palestine, for Egypt, noted Leila Zand.

However, the Trump administration damaged relations with Tehran, while his successor, Joe Biden, almost ruined ties with the Saudi royals, most notably, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. OPEC+'s latest decision to further cut oil production was seen by some observers as a slap in the face of the Biden administration.

"Saudi Arabia felt that it needed to work for their own interests," Zand noted. "And from the perspective of the US, when as an American, my American part is looking at that and I don't like what has happened because it shows that my country was not diplomatically equipped and was not a good mediator. It was not a peacemaker in order to build the relationship between the countries."

To complicate matters further, the US has been dragged into internal power struggle and failing to manifest itself as an influential player in the region, according to Al Ibrahim.

"The US influence in the Middle East has declined, not because the Middle East is trying, or the GCC country or Saudi Arabia is trying to go away from the United States," said the Riyadh-based analyst. "No, it's the United States who is pulling out of the region for many reasons (...) [but] also the conflict internally between the Democrats and the Republicans who are so divided."

Washington is by no means enthusiastic about China's growing influence in the Middle East. Instead of hailing the settlement process between Iran and Saudi Arabia, some DC-based scholars lamented the fact that the Iran-Saudi Arabia détente could complicate efforts by the US and Israel to "strengthen a regional alliance to confront Iran" referring to Tehran's nuclear program.

Last year, the Biden administration largely froze negotiations over the revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, which Washington unilaterally tore apart. Then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018 even though Tehran fully observed the accord. In response, Iran started to loosen the requirements of the deal concerning the enrichment of uranium.

On April 3, Axios reported that the Biden administration had recently been in discussion with its European and Israeli partners about striking a deal with Iran that would include some sanctions relief in exchange for Tehran freezing parts of its nuclear program. The effort followed the International Atomic Energy Agency's February report alleging that Iran had amassed 87.5 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium.

It appears that the newly brokered Saudi-Iran détente could prompt the Biden administration to bring the issue of negotiations with Tehran back on the table after Washington suspended the nuclear talks and openly supported protests against the Iranian government last year. Meanwhile, it's likely that China may help diplomatically resolve other longstanding conflicts in the Middle East, according to Jeff J. Brown. However, it will take time, he added.

"The KSA-Iran détente should be followed by similar agreements with the other Gulf State monarchies," Brown said, projecting that a new world order will take shape with the Global South playing an important role in it. "Thanks to the geopolitical catalyst in Ukraine, with Washington and Brussels making one god-awful mistake after another, this is inspiring Africa, Latin America, Asia and Oceania to start standing tall against 500 years of colonial imperialism and shout, 'Look, the Western king wears no clothes'!"

Ruangan RS Salak yang Terbakar Salah Satu Cagar Budaya

Fakta terbaru muncul di peristiwa kebakaran di Rumah Sakit Salak Bogor, hari Jumat siang, 07/04/2023. Fakta tersebut terungkap bahwa bangunan yang terbakar di Rumah Salak Bogor adalah cagar budaya.

Kepala RS tingkat 3 Salak Bogor, Letkol CKM Dokter Nanik Prasetyoningsih mengatakan bangunan memang rencana dilakukan renovasi karena sudah lama namun tidak merubah bentuknya.

“Api berasal dari titik bangunan lama yg ada di madenkes. Itu strukturnya juga sudah tua dan aliran listrik sedang kita lihat,” kata Nani kepada wartawan, hari Jumat, 07/04/2023.

Nanik juga memastikan memastikan tidak ada korban jiwa dalam kebakaran yang terjadi pada siang tadi. Selain itu, seluruh unit pelayanan juga masih berjalan dengan baik.

“Korban jiwa nihil. Semua aspek pelayanan RS dapat terlaksana dengan baik. IGD aman, ruang perawatan anak, bayi, ortu, ibu hamil, kamar operasi aman,” ucap Nanik.

Nanik mengatakan api berasal dari bangunan lama yang ada di RS Salak. Pihaknya akan mengecek aliran listrik di sana.

“Api berasal dari titik bangunan lama yg ada di Madenkes. Itu strukturnya juga sudah tua dan aliran listrik sedang kita lihat,” tuturnya.

Dia juga memastikan seluruh pasien RS Salak aman. Tidak ada pasien maupun petugas yang terdampak kebakaran.

“Ini hari libur tidak ada yg bertugas. Semua aman. Pasien aman. Tidak ada yg terdampak. Petugas aman tidak ada yg terdampak,” terangnya.

Sebelumnya, kebakaran terjadi di Rumah Sakit (RS) Salak, Bogor Tengah, Kota Bogor, Jawa Barat (Jabar). Komandan Korem (Danrem) 061/Surya Kencana Brigjen TNI Rudy Saladin mengatakan ruang yang terbakar merupakan cagar budaya.

“Kalau instalasi ini memang bangunan lama ya bisa lihat di situ 1984. Kantor Denkes yang hangus juga memang merupakan salah satu cagar budaya,” kata Brigjen Rudy kepada wartawan.

Ruang farmasi dan fisioterapi RS Salak merupakan bagian dari cagar budaya. Dia menyayangkan cagar budaya tersebut terbakar berharap segera bisa direvitalisasi.

“Ini yang juga kita sayangkan. Mudah-mudahan segera ada revitalisasi atau program dari pemerintah daerah untuk mengembalikan lagi cagar budaya kita,” tandasnya.

Korsleting Listrik jadi Sebab Kebakaran di RS Salak Bogor

Walikota Bogor, Bima Arya Sugiarto menyebut penyebab kebakaran di seputaran Rumah Sakit Salak Bogor karena konselting listrik di medical check up hingga akhirnya menjalar ke apotek

Beruntung tidak ada korban luka maupun meninggal dari peristiwa kebakaran yang terjadi sekitar pukul 13.10 WIB, pada hari Jumat, 07/04/2023.

“Pemadam Kebakaran bergerak cepat karena kita khawatir akan kena ke pasien. Tapi jaraknya agak jauh dengan IGD. Jadi kita fokus padamkan di lokasi dan mencegah agar tidak menjalar ke bangunan Denpom,” kata Bima.

Saat ini sekita jam 14.45 WIB, lanjut Bima, api sudah relatif terkendali, tetapi di dalam masih ada yang menyala.

“Jadi diperkirakan berdasarkan informasi dari saksi mata, kemungkinan besar karena korsleting di daerah medical check up Sejauh ini alhamdulillah belum ada laporan korban jiwa maupun luka-luka. Tetapi tentu masih harus kita pastikan setelah api padam semua dan kita cek semua ke dalam,” ucap Bima.

Sementara soal ledakan yang terjadi, Bima mengungkapkan kemungkinan besar itu dari gas dan dari ada botol tabung-tabung.

“Jadi bukan dari amunisi senjata bukan. Dari tabung gas dan botol-botol zat kimia, karena kan ada apotek di situ. Yang terbakar ruang pelayanan, medical check up, administrasi, keuangan,” tambah Bima.

LIVE UPDATES - Russian Air Defenses Intercept Two US-made HIMARS Rockets in Ukraine Operation

©Russian Defence Ministry Press Service/TASS

Russian air defense forces intercepted two rockets of the US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system and destroyed 11 Ukrainian drones over the past day during the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Friday.

"During the last 24-hour period, air defense capabilities intercepted two rockets of the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system. In addition, they destroyed 11 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in areas near the settlements of Olginka and Privolnoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Karmazinovka and Novokrasnyanka in the Lugansk People’s Republic and Removka in the Zaporozhye Region," the spokesman said.

Russian forces destroy 30 Ukrainian troops in Kupyansk area

Russian forces struck Ukrainian army units in the Kupyansk area, destroying 30 enemy troops over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

The operational-tactical aviation of Russia hit the point of the Odessa naval guard deployed to the Kherson region, the enemy’s losses amounted to 50 people, Alexei Rulev, head of the press center of the Dnepr group, told RIA Novosti

"In the Kupyansk direction, aircraft and artillery of the western battlegroup struck the Ukrainian army units in areas near the settlements of Sinkovka and Kislovka in the Kharkov Region. As many as 30 Ukrainian personnel, two motor vehicles and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed in the past 24 hours," the spokesman said.

Russian forces eliminate over 50 Ukrainian troops in Krasny Liman area

Russian forces eliminated over 50 Ukrainian troops and a Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system in the Krasny Liman area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Krasny Liman direction, assault aircraft, artillery and active operations by units of the battlegroup Center inflicted damage on the enemy in the area of the settlement of Terny in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

Over 50 Ukrainian personnel, two armored combat vehicles, a pickup truck, a Gvozdika self-propelled artillery gun and a D-30 howitzer were destroyed in that area in the past 24 hours, the general specified.

Russian forces destroy 260 Ukrainian troops in Donetsk advance

Russian forces destroyed about 260 Ukrainian troops in their advance in the Donetsk area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Donetsk direction, three tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, three armored combat vehicles, eight motor vehicles, a Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, Msta-B and D-20 howitzers, and also about 260 Ukrainian personnel were destroyed in the past 24 hours as a result of active operations by units of the southern battlegroup and artillery fire," the spokesman said.

Russian forces destroy 20 Ukrainian troops in southern Donetsk, Zaporozhye areas

Russian forces destroyed roughly 20 Ukrainian troops and a D-20 howitzer in the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye areas over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

In the southern Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, aircraft and artillery of the battlegroup East struck the Ukrainian army units in areas near the settlements of Novomikhailovka and Ugledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic, the spokesman specified.

Fighters of the Wagner group are advancing from the center of Artemovsk to the western districts of the city, while retreating Ukrainian troops blow up buildings, RIA Novosti correspondent reports.

"The enemy’s losses in those directions in the past 24 hours amounted to 20 Ukrainian personnel, two pickup trucks and a D-20 howitzer," the general said.

Russian forces wipe out 14 Ukrainian troops, three artillery guns in Kherson area

Russian forces destroyed 14 Ukrainian troops and three artillery guns in the Kherson area over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the Kherson direction, 14 Ukrainian personnel, two motor vehicles, two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery guns and an Akatsiya motorized artillery system were destroyed in the past 24 hours as a result of damage inflicted by firepower," the spokesman said.

Russian forces strike Ukrainian army’s command post in Kherson area

Russian forces struck a Ukrainian command post in the Kherson area and destroyed two enemy ammunition depots in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"In the area of the settlement of Novoberislav in the Kherson Region, the command/observation post of a unit from the [Ukrainian army’s] 126th territorial defense brigade was struck. In addition, two Ukrainian ammunition depots were destroyed in areas near the settlements of Ivanovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic and Novolyubovka in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

Russian forces strike 86 Ukrainian artillery units in past day

Russian forces struck 86 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions over the past day, Konashenkov reported.

"Operational/tactical aircraft, missile troops and artillery of the Russian group of forces struck 86 Ukrainian artillery units at firing positions, manpower and equipment in 102 areas," the spokesman said.

In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 406 Ukrainian warplanes, 228 helicopters, 3,695 unmanned aerial vehicles, 415 surface-to-air missile systems, 8,563 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,078 multiple rocket launchers, 4,525 field artillery guns and mortars and 9,334 special military motor vehicles since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, Konashenkov reported.

Key takeaways from a Russian MoD briefing on US military and biological activities:

▪️The US Department of Energy, together with the Pentagon, is the main organizer of and direct participant in the US military biological activities;

▪️The goals of the US biological programs prove that Washington views former Soviet countries as a springboard for the deployment of NATO forces;

▪️Each new strain of the coronavirus had improved military-biological properties, which may indicate an artificial increase in its pathogenicity;

▪️There is a risk of the spread of dangerous pathogens in the areas of foreign biological laboratories controlled by the US;

▪️The Pentagon will continue research on bio-objects in Ukraine and other countries due to the vague reaction of the world community and the fear of arguing with Washington;

▪️The Pentagon finances dual-use projects through a system of grants;

▪️The drills that will be held in Warsaw in April could be a guise for the preparation of provocations with biological weapons;

▪️Participants of the training exercises will be invited to continue working on closed projects on Ukrainian territory and beyond.

Kremlin spokesman terms Xi-Macron talks in Beijing 'important point of contact

French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping
©Ludovic Marin/Pool via AP

The Kremlin is keeping a close eye on reports of talks between President Xi Jinping of China and President Emmanuel Macron of France as Russia sees the tete-a-tete as an "important point of contact," Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday.

"Undoubtedly, it is a very important point of contact and we are certainly monitoring all reports in that regard," he said.

"As you are aware, we have our own relationship with China; we have a wealth of very wide-ranging ties, and this is where we place our priority focus," Peskov added.

When asked if Macron could potentially influence China’s position on the Ukrainian conflict during his visit to Beijing, Peskov said that, "China is a very serious major power that maintains its own sovereign position." "It is a very serious-minded position that has been formulated with all due gravity. It’s not the type of country to suddenly up and alter its positions due to foreign influence," the Kremlin spokesman noted.

The French leader arrived on a state visit to China on Wednesday. He is being accompanied by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Xi held talks with Macron and von der Leyen in Beijing on Thursday. Resolving the Ukrainian crisis was one of the main issues on the agenda for the talks.

Macron's Beijing Mission Will Fail to Split China From Russia, Experts Say

Emmanuel Macron may have hoped to drive a wedge between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, but he will instead go home red-faced, argue scholar, educator and journalist K J Noh, a member of Veterans for Peace, and Dr Kenneth Hammond, professor of East Asian and global history at New Mexico State University.

French President Emmanuel Macron's will leave Beijing empty-handed if he hopes to change China's stance on Russia and Ukraine, scholars have said.

Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen flew to the Chinese capital on Wednesday for talks with President Xi Jinping.

On the agenda was China's 12-point blueprint for a ceasefire in Ukraine, which calls on the Kiev's western backers to abandon their "Cold War" mentality and unilateral use of coercive sanctions and heed Russia's security concerns.

Dr Kenneth Hammond told Sputnik that the leaders' mission was based on a "false expectation" that China would "jump ship and suddenly throw itself in with the US-led forces in the West" against Russia's military operation in Ukraine.

"China clearly restated its commitment to seeking a peaceful resolution of the situation in Ukraine," Hammond said, respecting "the security interests of all parties, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity" — including Russia's. "These are issues, these are principles that have animated Chinese foreign policy, not just in regard to the Ukraine situation, but more broadly for for many, many, many years."

The lecturer condemned the "demonization of China" in Western media and politics in his country.

"The negative portrayal of China has been so relentless, for at least the last decade and more," Hammond said. "The American government, especially in just the last few years, has been relentless in trying to shut down communication, knowledge, information exchange between people in China and people in the West."

The Confucius Institutes, where Americans can learn the Chinese language, have been suppressed, while Chinese academics working in the US "have been targeted by the FBI and the Justice Department on grounds that are all almost always dismissed as having no real basis in fact."

He recalled taking many groups of Americans on trips to China over the years. "When they get there, the first thing they say is 'What the heck is going on here? Where are all the police? Why do these people look happy? How come they're wearing decent clothes?'," Hammond said. "We just have this this mythology that China is poor and oppressed and everybody's suffering and the government is brutal and all."

K J Noh pointed out to Sputnik that Macron's trip to Beijing came as he was facing "terrific" protests against his attempt to raise the state pension age from 62 to 64, "so now he's beating down protesters all over France."

Macron is "trying to do the kind of global statesman impression," the scholar said, walking a tightrope between his country's interests and those of the US which "has been putting tremendous pressure on France and all the EU nations to fall into line... they want them to decouple from China."

"Macron doesn't want to decouple from China," however, said Noh. "You can see that because he took with him 60 executives from France's top corporations, because he wants to get some kind of commercial benefit out of these relations. He's going there with his hat in his hand."

The journalist argued that Macron's approach was a "veiled refutation of the US position" and an "endorsement of China's peace plan" which Washington has rejected out of hand.

Von der Leyen's presence, by contrast, was on US orders to act as a "chaperone" to make sure Macron doesn't go too far off the track.

"Macron has a weakness for matronly people who tell him what to do, and he may fall in line," the scholar cracked in a jibe at the French president's marriage to his former schoolteacher.

"Von der Leyen is charging that China is pursuing systematic change of the international order, and she wants to reset relations with China and she wants to 'de-risk' relations," Noh noted. "De-risk means it's a soft word for decouple."

Beijing's refusal to criticize Moscow over its conflict with US proxy Ukraine — in defence of the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass, Crimea, Zaporozhye and Kherson — may stem from Washington's recent change in stance towards Taiwan.

Former US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi, a member of President Joe Biden's Democratic Party, made an unannounced visit to Taipei last August on a US Air Force jet, meeting President Tsai Ing-wen in breach of Washington's stated 'one China policy' of recognizing Beijing's authority over both the mainland and the island province.

That prompted a breakdown in relations with China and a rise in military tensions, more recently exacerbated by the US shooting-down of a Chinese weather balloon that drifted over US territory.

"The reality of it is that the US is escalating to war," Noh warned, tracing Washington's hostility to Beijing back to the end of the Second World War and the Chinese revolution.

"It thought that it owned China. And when China turned communist, it became very, very upset," Noh said. "There's been a continuous Cold War and it has used Taiwan Island, this kind of corrupt state that lost the civil war as its forward force projection platform."

Even after the US altered its 'one China' policy to recognise only the People's Republic of China, it still maintained "grey-zone relations" with Taiwan where "we send them troops and we send them weapons, but not really... kind of don't ask, don't tell situation."

Ex-Judge Lays Bare Nuances of Trump's Court Affair

As Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg appears dead-set on trying to have former US President Donald Trump convicted on numerous charges whose origins date back to 2016, people begin pondering the ramifications of this unprecedented case.

The ex-POTUS himself has so far appeared unflappable as he pleaded not guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records brought against him by the prosecution.

Former New Jersey Superior Court Judge Andrew Napolitano sat down with Sputnik to discuss the nuances and potential consequences of Trump’s litigation.

Judge Napolitano: Dems Want Trump to Become GOP Nominee to Make Him Lose in 2024

Former President Donald Trump on April 4 appeared in a Manhattan courtroom and pleaded not guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records in a 2016 "hush money" case. Sputnik's Dimitri Simes, Jr. sat down with Judge Andrew Napolitano, former New Jersey Superior Court judge, to discuss what the case means and the implications going forward.

"Well, the case is a little unusual, because it charges what we in America call misdemeanors," said Judge Napolitano, who is currently a host of the "Judging Freedom" podcast on YouTube. "Those are low level crimes for which the maximum punishment in jail is less than a year. It charges them as having been committed in order to hide or mask a felony. Those are serious crimes for which the minimum penalty in jail is more than a year. The felony that the government claims Donald Trump was hiding was failure to pay income taxes on ordinary income and the use of corporate funds to pay a campaign or a personal debt."

On March 18, Donald Trump signaled that he expects to be arrested soon in connection with an ongoing investigation by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg concerning Trump's alleged 2016 payment of $130,000 in hush money to adult movie star Stormy Daniels via his former personal attorney, Michael Cohen. Trump's announcement caused a lively debate among US legal experts who referred to the fact that the federal authorities have repeatedly rejected the "hush money" case. The Federal Election Commission declined to pursue the Stormy Daniels case. Furthermore, Cyrus Vance, the predecessor to DA Bragg, made the same decision. US observers have also raised concerns about Bragg's political bias against the former president: the Manhattan DA, a registered Democrat, has a long record of partisan rhetoric targeting Trump and received campaign funds from George Soros, known for his enmity towards the former president.

When matters had largely calmed down, a 16-page lengthy indictment was unsealed on April 4, with prosecutors alleging a years-long plot to use "hush money" payments to suppress damaging information before the 2016 presidential election. The document reads that the former president "orchestrated a scheme with others to influence the 2016 presidential election by identifying and purchasing negative information about him to suppress its publication and benefit the Defendant's electoral prospects."

"The threat reached the Trump people in October of 2016, when Donald Trump was running against Hillary Clinton for president of the United States," recalled Napolitano. "If you recall that time period, a tape made by a television program called Access Hollywood caught Trump in an unguarded, candid moment in which he was acknowledging his aggressive sexual behavior towards women without mentioning any proper names. That tape, which was played incessantly for the American public, caused a lot of people, publicly, even Republicans, to denounce Trump, three weeks before Election Day. So the last thing they wanted was the Stormy Daniels thing to come out."

It is alleged that Team Trump agreed to pay Stormy Daniels $130,000 in return for her remaining silent about her supposed sex affair with then-presidential candidate. At the time, Cohen used his own money to pay Daniels and then sought reimbursement from Trump.

"It's not a crime to pay someone in America to remain silent," explained the judge. "It's unusual for the lawyer to pay the bail out of his own money. Very unusual, but not criminal. The crime came in when Trump reimbursed the lawyer out of corporation funds rather than out of personal funds. If Donald Trump had paid the lawyer back with his personal money, personal income on which he had paid income taxes, no harm, no crime. But because he paid him back with corporate funds and then recorded this in the corporate books as if it were a corporate expenditure, and then went through an elaborate deception using assumed names to pay him more than he was actually owed so that it would look like it was a legal bill – that was the crime. So keeping deceptive corporate books in order to mask a felony, two felonies, using corporate funds to pay a campaign debt in America is a felony."

Napolitano has drawn attention to the fact that it was not just one deceptive record but 34 unique discrete documents recorded in the books because Michael Cohen was paid in little snippets over 13 months. Each of them is a misdemeanor. Hence, Trump now has 34 felony charges against him.

Why Bragg's Case Against Trump is Really Strong

US legal experts argued that Trump's "hush money" case is based on shaky legal and ethical ground. Some suggested that the case is flawed if it is based on a state charge effectively prosecuting the federal election violation. The others expressed concerns about what they call "vagueness" in the charging documents, complaining that it may amount to breach of Trump’s Constitutional right to due process. Moreover, under New York law, falsifying your business records is usually considered a misdemeanor unless there is evidence that the falsification was made to either commit a crime or hide a crime that was already committed. One might wonder whether Bragg has enough evidence to prove it.

Nonetheless, Judge Napolitano deems that Bragg's case against the former president is a strong one.

"In most states in the union, in America and in the federal system, when the government brings a charge, it gives the defendant the evidence that it has," he said. "New York does not do that. New York has a slow, tedious process whereby the defense lawyers extract the evidence from the government. So we haven't seen all the evidence. But we understand from a document that Alvin Bragg filed shortly after he filed the indictment, which is called a statement of facts. In that statement of facts, he articulated the evidence. So the evidence that they have are Trump Organization financial records. Donald Trump's personal checkbook. Trump Organization, that's the name of his holding company, checkbook. Michael Cohen personal financial records. Michael Cohen law firm records. They also have the documents that this porn star whose stage name is Stormy Daniels, that Stormy Daniels signed and that Michael Cohen signed on behalf of Donald Trump."

When it comes to intent, Trump may say that he did it not because he was afraid of losing the presidential race, but because the alleged affair with Stormy Daniels could harm his marriage if it came out. However, even though this could potentially remove him from the campaign violation realm, it would put it into the tax avoidance realm, Napolitano continued, "because then it's a personal obligation, protecting my marriage, paid by a corporate check."

"In America, corporations, as you know, don't pay taxes on their ordinary reasonable expenses. So if you can claim that a personal debt was an ordinary, reasonable corporate expense and get away with it, you've saved yourself the income tax on that amount of money. So at Trump's tax rate, which in New York is 59%, he saved himself 59% of $130,000. Do the math, $75,000, not a large amount of money, but because it was done repeatedly, consistently, systematically and deceptively, and because he's Donald Trump, the government is going after him," the judge emphasized.

"In most states in the union, in America and in the federal system, when the government brings a charge, it gives the defendant the evidence that it has," he said. "New York does not do that. New York has a slow, tedious process whereby the defense lawyers extract the evidence from the government. So we haven't seen all the evidence. But we understand from a document that Alvin Bragg filed shortly after he filed the indictment, which is called a statement of facts. In that statement of facts, he articulated the evidence. So the evidence that they have are Trump Organization financial records. Donald Trump's personal checkbook. Trump Organization, that's the name of his holding company, checkbook. Michael Cohen personal financial records. Michael Cohen law firm records. They also have the documents that this porn star whose stage name is Stormy Daniels, that Stormy Daniels signed and that Michael Cohen signed on behalf of Donald Trump."

When it comes to intent, Trump may say that he did it not because he was afraid of losing the presidential race, but because the alleged affair with Stormy Daniels could harm his marriage if it came out. However, even though this could potentially remove him from the campaign violation realm, it would put it into the tax avoidance realm, Napolitano continued, "because then it's a personal obligation, protecting my marriage, paid by a corporate check."

"In America, corporations, as you know, don't pay taxes on their ordinary reasonable expenses. So if you can claim that a personal debt was an ordinary, reasonable corporate expense and get away with it, you've saved yourself the income tax on that amount of money. So at Trump's tax rate, which in New York is 59%, he saved himself 59% of $130,000. Do the math, $75,000, not a large amount of money, but because it was done repeatedly, consistently, systematically and deceptively, and because he's Donald Trump, the government is going after him," the judge emphasized.

"So the DA was listening to all of us who were criticizing him before he filed the indictment, saying you can't have in a state court an underlying felony that's a federal felony, when the federal authorities declined to prosecute. He heard that criticism and so crafted the indictment so that there were two underlying felonies, one federal - that's the campaign violation; one state, which is the failure to pay state income taxes. So, he has avoided the obstacle which might have been fatal to the case of attempting to bring a federal crime into a state court," Napolitano said.

However, the good news for Trump is that even if he's convicted of all these, he won't go to jail, according to the veteran legal expert. "This is not something that you go to jail for," the judge remarked. "The fines could be heavy even for a man of his wealth, but it's unlikely that he will go to jail because of no prior record."

Still, the bad news is that the former president is facing further indictments that are far more serious and do mandate jail time should he be indicted and convicted on those.

'Show Me the Man and I'll Find You the Crime'

There's no doubt that the "hush money" case and other emerging cases have been heavily politicized against Donald Trump, as per the judge.

"There are more crimes to be prosecuted than there are resources in the DA's office with which to prosecute them," Napolitano said. "So they really have to engage in what we call prosecutorial discretion, decide which crimes really hurt society and need to be prosecuted and which we can dispose of in a non-prosecutorial way, which is a slap on the wrist. Not all prosecutors would have put this case in the area of criminality that requires prosecution."

In fact, the US legal system is capable of finding felonies with any person if there's a political incentive to go after someone, thus evoking a strong memory of a Soviet-era phrase attributed to Lavrentiy Beria, Joseph Stalin's chief of secret police: "Show me the man and I'll find you the crime."

"The view that America is a land of personal freedom is essentially a myth," the judge continued. "A friend of mine who is a brilliant legal scholar named Harvey Silverglate, wrote a book called 'Three Felonies a Day' in which he argues that he could find three felonies that any person in America, any adult person in America has committed. There are 5500 federal crimes. The American Constitution only authorizes two. But the Congress has written 5500. There is no person in America familiar with, conversant with all 5500. And the vast majority of them criminalize behavior, which is essentially harmless. But they are on the books and they're available as tools for the prosecutor. States are just as aggressive. The 50 states, we'll say 51 because the District of Columbia, though not a state has its own jurisdiction, have tens and tens of thousands of crimes for which they can pick whichever one they want, if they want to go after someone. Beria was speaking truthfully. Silverglate is speaking truthfully. This is the dark side of the criminal justice system in America. Just as it was the dark side of the prosecutorial system in the old Soviet Union. But it's true."

Do Democrats Want Trump to Become the GOP Nominee?

As per Napolitano, the Democrats are well aware of the conservative being irritated by what they call a partisan persecution against Trump, who announced his 2024 presidential bid last year. Apparently they also understand that it may give the former president additional political points and pave the way to his Republican nomination in 2024. The crux of the matter is that the Democrats want Trump to become the GOP nominee, Napolitano believes. "The Democrats want Trump to be the Republican nominee because President Biden's stewardship of the federal government has been so poor," he said.

"The only way, this is what the Democrats believe, I'm not a Democrat, but I happen to agree with them, the only way President Biden can get reelected is if he runs against Trump. And then the issues in the campaign will not be President Biden's stewardship of the government. It will be Trump's character, Trump's personality and Trump's criminality. And on those issues with the full American electorate, not just the Republican Party, which is a minority party here, but the full American electorate, on those issues Trump will lose."

The Democrats don't have much choice but to play those political games despite growing distrust from Trump supporters and many Americans for US institutions, for Congress, for the Pentagon.

"You know, they have a president who will be 82 years old when running for reelection, who's candidly mentally challenged," Napolitano explained. "Whose administration is foolishly and illegally bringing us into a war with Russia. Under whom the economy is crazy with inflation. All of these things are indefensible to the American public. And if he wants the Democratic nomination, the history and custom in America is to give it to an incumbent president even with these defects. Democrats have two chances. One is that Trump is the Republican nominee. The other is that Biden decides not to run for reelection, and then they nominate somebody who's not affiliated with Biden's administration and who doesn't have the burden of having to defend the indefensible."

Advice to Donald Trump

When asked what legal advice he would have given to Trump if he was his lawyer Napolitano said: "Talk about whatever you want, you're running for president. Talk about why you should be president. Keep your eyes and your words focused on the future, not on the past." The judge warned the former president against lambasting the people investigating him in the federal system. According to Napolitano, this is very, very bad practice to keep doing this and all of this is going to come back to hurt him.

"Begin the process of extracting evidence from the government, file a lot of what we call motions to the judge, force the judge to make rulings, because the way you appeal a conviction is when the judge makes an erroneous ruling," Napolitano continued. "So you want him to make many, many, many rulings so that a few of them will be erroneous and taken in the aggregate, that will deny the client a fair trial. You have to force the judge to make mistakes, so to speak."

And, to cap it off: "In an American courtroom it only matters what the jury hears and sees in the courtroom," the judge concluded.