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Friday, 17 November 2023

End ‘magical thinking’ about defeating Russia – experts

A Ukrainian soldier walks in the trench near the frontline village of Rabotino in Zaporozhye Region, on October 1, 2023.
©Roman Pilipey / AFP

Western leaders must give up their “magical thinking” about defeating Russia in Ukraine, two analysts from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace have claimed, in an essay published by the Wall Street Journal.

The Washington think tank’s authors, Eugene Rumer and Andrew Weiss wrote Thursday that contrary to the hopes of Western officials who speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be ousted in a “palace coup,” Moscow has maintained popular support for its Ukraine strategy while overcoming efforts to cripple its economy.

z Officials in the west “have indulged all too often in magical thinking– betting on sanctions, a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive or the transfer of new types of weapons to force the Kremlin to come to the negotiating table.”

“What Western leaders conspicuously haven’t done is level with their publics about the enduring nature of the threat from an emboldened, revisionist Russia,” they noted.

“More than six months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin signed off on a new national security strategy for Russia,” they claimed.

“The main thrust of that document was to prepare the country for a long-term confrontation with the West. Today, Putin can tell the nation that his strategy is working.”

Although Rumer and Weiss claimed that “none of this should come as a surprise,” the publication of the piece marks a continuation of a new, more critical trend in mainstream US media on the Ukraine's prospects in its conflict with Russia.

The tone has shifted amid widespread recognition that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky faces wavering allies, enormous casualties, and growing fissures within his leadership team.

One of the most somber articles was posted late last month by Time magazine, which had named Zelensky its “person of the year” just last December. “Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave,” Zelensky told the publication, referring to the sharp decrease in Western enthusiasm for the Ukrainian cause.

Speaking to The Economist earlier this month, Valery Zaluzhny, Kiev’s top general, admitted that the situation on the battlefront had reached “a stalemate.”

There are no indications that Russia is losing the conflict, which has become a “war of attrition,” Rumer and Weiss conclude.

Putin’s position has only strengthened and Russian defense contractors are outperforming their Western counterparts in producing weaponry. The Russian economy has withstood US-led sanctions, they find.

“The technocrats responsible for running the Russian economy have proven themselves to be resilient, adaptable, and resourceful,” the two analysts said. “Elevated oil prices, driven in part by close cooperation with Saudi Arabia, are refilling state coffers. Ukraine, by contrast, depends heavily on infusions of Western cash.”

Weiss and Rumer called for a shift to a long-term containment strategy because “there should be no illusions that any possible combination of short-term steps will be sufficient to force Putin to abandon his war.” The new strategy would involve continuing Western sanctions, isolating Russia diplomatically, and strengthening NATO defense capabilities, as well as “mitigating all of the damage – diplomatic, informational, military and economic” caused by the war.

The op-ed stressed that Western leaders had used a similarly long-term approach during the Cold War, rather than unrealistically betting on an “overnight collapse of the Soviet system.” However, the analysts advised against fighting another Cold War.

“Embarking on a global competition with the Kremlin would not be a wise investment of US prestige or resources. It would consign us to a pointless game of whack-a-mole against any and all manifestations of Russian influence,” wrote Rumer and Weiss.

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Nobel Prize Winner 2022 Who Doesn't Believe Climate Crisis

Physicist Dr. John Clauser poses after having been awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics 2022 during the Nobel Prize award ceremony at the Concert Hall in Stockholm, Sweden, on December 10, 2022. The Co2 Coalition said this week that the International Monetary Fund canceled Clauser's speech scheduled for July 25, 2023.
CHRISTINE OLSSON/TT NEWS AGENCY/AFP/GETTY

Nobel Prize winner Dr. John Clauser, who has disputed issues surrounding climate change, recently was told he would not be speaking to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to CO₂ Coalition, a non-profit organization that believes carbon dioxide is beneficial to society.

"Nobel Laureate (Physics 2022) Dr. John Clauser was to present a seminar on climate models to the IMF on Thursday and now his talk has been summarily cancelled," the CO₂ Coalition said in a statement. "According to an email he received last evening, the Director of the Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund, Pablo Moreno, had read the flyer for John's July 25 zoom talk and summarily and immediately canceled the talk. Technically, it was 'postponed,'" the statement added

"I don't believe there is a climate crisis," Clauser said during at Quantum Korea. "The world we live in today is filled with misinformation. It is up to each of you to serve as judges, distinguishing truth from falsehood based on accurate observations of phenomena."

According to the CO₂ Coalition, Clauser made similar comments in the past, including: "In my opinion, there is no real climate crisis. There is, however, a very real problem with providing a decent standard of living to the world's large population and an associated energy crisis. The latter is being unnecessarily exacerbated by what, in my opinion, is incorrect climate science."

According to the Nobel Prize website, Clauser won a Nobel Prize in physics in 2022 for quantum mechanics research. The CO₂ Coalition said that he was awarded the Nobel Prize "for experimentally elucidating the phenomenon of quantum entanglement, which forms the theoretical basis for quantum cryptography."

At a fiery news conference at the Four Seasons hotel here Tuesday, speakers denounced climate change as a hoax perpetrated by a “global cabal” including the United Nations, the World Economic Forum and many leaders of the Catholic Church.

It might have seemed like a fringe event, except for one speaker’s credentials. John F. Clauser shared the Nobel Prize in physics last year before declaring Tuesday that “there is no climate crisis” — a claim that contradicts the overwhelming scientific consensus.

The event showcased Clauser’s remarkable shift since winning one of the world’s most prestigious awards for his groundbreaking experiments with light particles in the 1970s. His recent denial of global warming has alarmed top climate scientists, who warn that he is using his stature to mislead the public about a planetary emergency.

On the other hand, scientists who claim that there is a climate emergency that has misled humanity, are angry at this statement, because of the domino effect, the West will be prevented from directing funds to all countries for reasons that are deliberately fabricated (my claim, bloggers are experts in mathematics, physics, chemistry and virology).

Clauser, 80, who has a booming voice and white hair he often leaves uncombed, has brushed off these concerns. He says skepticism is a key part of the scientific process.

“There was overwhelming consensus that what I was doing was pointless” in the 1970s, he said in an interview after the news conference. “It took 50 years for my work to win the prize. That’s how long it takes for opinions to change.”

Tuesday’s event was organized by the Deposit of Faith Coalition, a group of more than a dozen Catholic organizations that argues that “those pushing the anti-God and anti-family climate agenda need to be called out and exposed.” Clauser, who is an atheist, needed some convincing to be the keynote speaker, a coalition spokesman acknowledged.

The other speakers included Marc Morano, a former Republican congressional staffer who runs a website that rejects mainstream climate science, and Alex Newman, a journalist for right-wing media outlets who has called for exposing the “climate scam.” Both men took multiple jabs at former vice president Al Gore and his 2006 documentary about the dangers of climate change.

Clauser, who wore a gray blazer with black jeans and Teva sandals, appeared buoyant as he took the stage. He cycled through a PowerPoint presentation that began with the exclamation: “Great news! There is no climate crisis!”

“Much as it may upset many people, my message is the planet is not in peril,” Clauser told an audience of roughly a dozen people in the hotel conference room and others watching online. “I call myself a climate denier,” he added. “I’ve been told that’s not politically correct. So I guess I’m a climate crisis d-word person.”

Clauser bragged that he met privately with President Biden in the Oval Office last year, when the 2022 Nobel Prize winners were invited to the White House. He said he criticized Biden’s climate and energy policies, to which he said the president replied: “Sounds like right-wing science.”

The Washington Post could not confirm this account; a White House spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Iran will ‘do whatever it takes’ to help Hamas – top commander

FILE PHOTO: Iranian Quds force commander Esmail Qaani speaks at an event in Tehran, Iran, January 1, 2021.
©AFP/Stringer

The head of Iran’s elite Quds Force has vowed to do “whatever it takes” to back Hamas in its war with Israel, claiming that the Palestinian militant group is headed for an “impressive victory” in Gaza.

In a letter addressed to the commander of Hamas’ armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, Quds Force leader Esmail Qaani declared that Tehran and its allies “will not allow this brutal enemy and those standing behind him to conquer Gaza and its heroic people.”

“We will do whatever it takes in this historic battle,” Qaani said, adding that Hamas had “proved to everyone that the resistance in Gaza is capable of initiative and innovation, while maintaining its organization and field capabilities.”

Published on Thursday by the state-backed Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), the letter comes just one day after Reuters reported that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had informed Hamas that his country would not get directly involved in the Gaza war. Instead, Khamenei reportedly restated Iran’s long standing “political and moral support” for Hamas, but ruled out military intervention.

Earlier on Thursday, however, top Hamas official Osama Hamdan dismissed the Reuters story, telling IRNA: “Instead of providing information, this news agency has published worthless lies.” He added that such reports are intended to harm the image of Hamas and its allies in the “axis of resistance” – a network of Iran-backed militia groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza.

Iranian officials have yet to comment on the Reuters report.

Qaani went on to congratulate the Palestinian armed faction for an “impressive victory and qualitative achievement that is unprecedented in the history of the conflict,” assuring that “Your brothers in the resistance axis stand united with you.”

The Quds Force is the foreign operations arm of Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), responsible for military and intelligence missions beyond Iran’s borders. Qaani took over the force in 2020 after his predecessor, Qasem Soleimani, was killed in a US drone strike near Baghdad.

Letter from Osama Bin Laden goes viral

More than two decades after the attacks that ignited the US ‘War on Terror,’ Osama Bin Laden’s anti-Jewish letter justifying terrorism against Americans has resonated on social media and captured the imaginations of pro-Palestinian activists amid the Israel-Hamas war.

Videos with the hashtag “LettertoAmerica” have been viewed more than 13.5 million times on TikTok, apparently beginning with a post on Tuesday by a user named Lynette Adkins. “I need everyone to stop what they’re doing right now and go read – it’s literally two pages – go read ‘A Letter to America,’” she said. “And please come back here and just let me know what you think because I feel like I’m going through, like, an existential crisis right now, and a lot of people are, so I just need someone else to be feeling this, too.”

FILE PHOTO: A video released in December 2001 shows Osama bin Laden describing the World Trade Center attack as "commendable."
©Getty Images

Other users reacted similarly to the recently rediscovered letter, which is over 20 years old. Another TikTok user who claimed to be suffering an “existential crisis” said of the letter, “I will never look at life the same; I will never look at this country the same.”

For his part, US Senator Marco Rubio suggested in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that the reactions show terrorist sympathies: “They now understand terrorism is a legitimate method of resistance against ‘oppression,’ and America deserved to be attacked on 9/11.”

Now trending on social media (especially TikTok) people saying that after reading Bin Laden’s "Letter to America," they now understand terrorism is a legitimate method of resistance against “oppression” and America deserved to be attacked of 9/11

Video Credit: @yashar pic.twitter.com/O5bemdTDzw
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) November 16, 2023

Bin Laden, who addressed the 2002 letter “to the American people,” condemned the US for supporting the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory and argued that Jews controlled American policies, capital, and media. “The creation of Israel is a crime which must be erased,” he wrote. “Each and every person whose hands have become polluted in the contribution toward this crime must pay its price – and pay for it heavily.”

The Al-Qaeda founder went on to call for the blood of Palestinians to be avenged. “It is commanded by our religion and intellect that the oppressed have a right to return the aggression,” Bin Laden said. “Do not await anything from us but jihad, resistance, and revenge. Is it in any way rational to expect that, after America has attacked us for more than half a century, we will then leave her to live in security and peace?”

The UK’s Guardian newspaper had posted a copy of the letter since an English translation was first published in November 2002. The outlet took down the document on Wednesday. A spokesman for The Guardian told Fox News that the paper had removed the letter because it was being widely shared on social media “without the full context.” The page now links to an article that provides context.

Adkins, the social media user who posted the letter on Tuesday, includes a link on her TikTok page to a fundraising site for “Palestinian rights.” The site calls for a ceasefire in West Jerusalem’s war with Hamas, saying the Palestinians in Gaza are “living through genocide as Israel bombs, starves, and displaces them.”

Nearly 100 Protesters Calling for Israeli Ceasefire Injured in Clash With DC Police

Organizers of the protest outside the Democratic National Committee (DNC) headquarters Wednesday night said 90 of its demonstrators were injured after skirmishes broke out with police.

Members of the Ceasefire Now Coalition said hundreds of people attended a candlelight vigil outside the DNC building in Washington to demand a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war and to pray for those taken hostage by the Hamas militants and for all who have died in both sides of the conflict.

Capitol Police said they responded to the demonstration to evacuate lawmakers from the building and said the group gathered was “illegally and violently protesting” protesters.

Speaking at a press conference Thursday, organizers accused the police of forcefully shoving the protesters down the steps, pepper-spraying them and choking one of their members without warning. They said at least one person was being treated for a concussion.

Rabbi Jessica Rosenberg, who was at the headquarters Wednesday night, said her congregants “are devastated this morning,” not only from the lives lost in the Israel-Hamas war, but now because of the “violence from the police.”

“We were there lighting candles for all who have died, honoring the lives lost, to call for a cease-fire to honor those lives in prayer and in song. And instead, instead of being able to actually talk to our elected officials and pray with them and sing with them and ask them for a cease-fire, the police shoved our people down the steps,” Rosenberg said at the press conference.

Those in attendance included members from Jewish Voice for Peace Action. Dani Nobles, a member who was at Wednesday’s protest, said she does not know how the situation escalated so quickly outside the DNC.

“I mean, from my personal perspective, I don’t know, like we were doing — we were engaging in civil disobedience,” Nobles said when asked about why the situation escalated. “I’ve been at many protests this month, where we’ve engaged in like, nonviolent tactics of civil disobedience. And I personally have never seen such a like fast and violent escalation by police with no warning.”

Nobles said attendees wanted to engage with lawmakers to discuss a cease-fire in Gaza. She also accused lawmakers and Capitol Police of spreading misinformation about what happened at the incident.

“And absolutely, in no instance did anyone try to enter the building, and spreading misinformation to the contrary is extremely, extremely dangerous. We were there peacefully singing and chanting, waiting for Democratic officials to show up so that we could actually engage,” she said.

Capitol Police, organizers and lawmakers have provided conflicting information about what happened Wednesday night. Organizers disputed claims from lawmakers and Capitol Police that protesters used pepper spray on officers and blocked entrances to the building.

On Thursday morning, Capitol Police released an updated statement about the incident, saying approximately 200 people gathered “failed to obey” the orders to move them back from the DNC. Organizers said no such order was given.

“We have handled hundreds of peaceful protests, but last night’s group was not peaceful. The crowd failed to obey our lawful orders to move back from the DNC, where Members of Congress were in the building,” Capitol Police said in a statement.

Capitol Police claimed the group moved dumpsters in front of the building and used pepper spray on officers — which the organizers denied seeing anyone do. Capitol Police said its officers “quickly introduced consequences” afterward, which included “pulling people off the building, pushing them back, and clearing them from the area.”

Capitol Police said six officers were injured from minor cuts, being pepper-sprayed and being punched.

Police said they arrested 24-year-old Ruben Arthur Camacho of Woodbridge, N.Y., for assault on an officer after others witnessed him “slam another officer into a garage door and then punch the female officer in the face.”

The protest came two days after one of the largest pro-Israel gatherings in US history took place on the National Mall, where congressional leaders from both the Democratic and Republican parties were present.

At least 90 people were injured late Wednesday following a clash between Capitol Police and protesters outside the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington, DC.

Protesters at the scene were calling for a ceasefire in the ongoing Palestine-Israel conflict that broke out on October 7 following a surprise attack by the Palestinian Hamas group. Hostilities have remained at an all-time high as Israel has dismissed calls for a ceasefire.

Reports have indicated that Democratic representatives and candidates were present inside the DNC building during the protest, some of whom include House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark and US Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA).

DC tonight: Hundreds are gathered at the Democratic National Headquarters demanding a #ceasefireNOW in Gaza. Police are violently arresting protestors and fired tear gas into the crowd

Like in 1968, protestors remind the DNC that “the whole world is watching” pic.twitter.com/gfsX77O3Am
— Hanna Alshaikh - هناء الشيخ (@yalawiya) November 16, 2023

At least six officers were injured and treated for minor abrasions, with officers arresting a 24-year-old individual who reportedly punched a female officer in the face. According to the US Capitol Police, officials had worked to “keep back approximately 150 people" who were “illegally and violently protesting” in the area; activists have disputed this claim, according to one report.

The police, who were attempting to evacuate lawmakers from the building, also claimed that protesters moved dumpsters in front of exits, as well as pepper sprayed police officers.

Members of the Ceasefire Now Coalition said hundreds of people were present during the candlelight vigil. Members from the Jewish Voice for Peace Action were also present during the vigil. Demonstrators have accused the police of forcefully shoving protesters down the steps of the building, pepper-spraying demonstrators and choking one member, according to a separate report.

So did the police at the DNC protest injure…themselves? pic.twitter.com/JDlw0xqIXT
— Waleed Shahid 🪬 (@_waleedshahid) November 16, 2023

“We were there lighting candles for all who have died, honoring the lives lost, to call for a ceasefire to honor those lives in prayer and in song. And instead, instead of being able to actually talk to our elected officials and pray with them and sing with them and ask them for a ceasefire, the police shoved our people down the steps,” Rabbi Jessica Rosenberg said at a news conference. Rosenberg had attend the demonstration on Wednesday night.

My last video before police-initiated violence last night. Which is also last you see of CEASEFIRE signage which seemed to be one of targets of police aggression at DNC HQ. pic.twitter.com/7FZvRpWNZQ
— #StopCopCity (@ChuckModi1) November 16, 2023

Dani Noble, a member from the Jewish Voice for Peace Action, stated she doesn’t understand why the demonstration escalated into a violent clash between demonstrators and police.

“I mean, from my personal perspective, I don’t know, like we were doing — we were engaging in civil disobedience,” Noble said, who added that those present were hoping to talk to lawmakers about a ceasefire when the escalation came from police.

People peacefully demonstrating for a ceasefire lit candles to honor the 11,200 lives lost in #Gaza, but the police attacked them, kicking over candles and violating the freedom of speech. #US #DNC #ابو_عبيدة #AlShifaHospital #IsraelIsATerrorist #Gaza pic.twitter.com/npRsttjds9
— Shahzaib 🇵🇰 (@iam_ShahZ) November 16, 2023

“I’ve been at many protests this month, where we’ve engaged in like, nonviolent tactics of civil disobedience. And I personally have never seen such a like fast and violent escalation by police with no warning.”

Last week, various House Democrats joined a majority of House Republicans in voting to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) over her criticism of the Israeli government’s treatment of Palestinians. Tlaib is the only Palestinian-American politician in Congress.

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden faces has continued to face pressure to end his support for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, as he has resisted ceasefire calls.

Thursday, 16 November 2023

Video Russian kamikaze drone obliterates British - designed howitzer

A Russian marine unit fighting on the frontline of the Ukraine conflict has used a Lancet loitering munition to destroy a Kiev-operated, British-designed FH70 howitzer. The Russian Defense Ministry identified the targeted gun as it shared footage of the strike on Thursday.

The attack was reportedly launched by the 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, part of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy. The clip included footage from the drone’s on-board camera and from another aircraft, presumably a reconnaissance drone, which filmed the engagement from above. The hit appeared to detonate artillery shells stored at the site hidden inside a windbreak.

The video had been circulating on Russian-military-themed social media for several days before the ministry vouched for it. Some outlets suggested that the Lancet was of a newer model, equipped with a night-vision sensor that older variants lacked.

Ukraine's Western backers have been sending FH70 155mm towed howitzers to the conflict since last year. Estonia pledged its entire stockpile of 24 pieces, while Italy provided an unspecified number of guns, estimated at ten by some defense analysts.

Lancet drones are reportedly one of the primary threats to Ukrainian heavy weapons on the frontline. The Kalashnikov-produced system has a distinctive shape thanks to its two sets of X-wings and comes in two principal versions, with payloads weighing one and three kilograms respectively. Designer Zala Aero is said to be improving its products as it gets feedback from the conflict zone.

Aleksandr Mikheev, head of the Russian arms-export agency Rosoboronexport, has claimed a high interest in the Lancet drones from potential foreign buyers.

“However, it is not supplied to foreign markets because the Russian armed forces have a high demand for it and there is no export permission for it yet,” he told TASS on Wednesday on the sidelines of the Dubai Airshow 2023 military expo.

The main thing from the report of the Russian Ministry of Defense:

In the Kupyansky direction, three attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were reflected in the areas of Sinkovka and Zagoruykovka, in the Krasnolimansky direction - one attack in the area of Chervona Dibrova. The total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in two directions are up to 285 people.

In the Donetsk direction, 14 enemy attacks were repelled, in the South Donetsk direction, manpower and equipment were hit by fire. The total losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are up to 310 military personnel.

In the Zaporizhia direction, strikes were launched against units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Rabotino, Uspenivka and Malaya Tokmachka areas. Here and in the Kherson direction, the total losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to 170 people.

A Ukrainian MiG-29 was shot down in the Krasnoarmeysk area, and two HIMARS shells and a JDAM bomb were intercepted within a day.

Laman