Gunung Merapi 189 Kali Luncurkan Larva

Luncuran lava pijar dari Gunung Merapi terlihat dari Srumbung, Magelang, Jawa Tengah, hari Jumat, 02/02/2024. FOTO: dok.Ant

Gunung Merapi yang terletak di perbatasan Jawa Tengah dan Yogyakarta tercatat meluncurkan guguran lava sebanyak 189 kali ke arah selatan dan barat daya selama sepekan yang terhitung sejak 9 sampai 15 Februari 2024.

Kepala Balai Penyelidikan dan Pengembangan Teknologi Kebencanaan Geologi (BPPTKG) Agus Budi Santoso dalam laporan yang diterima di Jakarta, Jumat, mengatakan guguran lava pijar sebanyak dua kali meluncur ke Kali Boyong sejauh maksimal 1.400 meter dan 187 kali mengarah ke hulu Kali Bebeng sejauh maksimal 1.700 meter.

“Pada pekan ini terjadi dua kali awan panas guguran ke arah barat daya (hulu Kali Bebeng) dengan jarak luncur maksimal 1.500 meter,” kata Agus.

Pada 15 Februari 2024, BPPTKG melakukan survei panas menggunakan pesawat tanpa awak jenis drone dan menganalisa morfologi kubah lava dari stasiun kamera Deles 5, Ngepos, Babadan 2.

Agus menuturkan morfologi kubah barat daya teramati adanya perubahan akibat adanya aktivitas awan panas guguran dan guguran lava.

Selama sepekan, Gunung Merapi mengalami kegempaan vulkanik dangkal sebanyak 22 kali, 181 kali gempa fase banyak, 3 kali gempa frekuensi rendah, 719 kali gempa guguran, dan 6 kali gempa tektonik.

“Intensitas kegempaan pekan ini masih cukup tinggi,” kata Agus.

Pos Pengamatan Gunung Merapi melaporkan turun hujan dengan intensitas sebesar 30 milimeter per jam selama 65 menit di Pos Ngepos pada 12 Februari 2024. Hujan itu tidak menambah aliran maupun lahar di sungai-sungai yang berhulu di Gunung Merapi.

Saat ini potensi bahaya berupa guguran lava dan awan panas pada sektor selatan-barat daya meliputi Sungai Boyong sejauh maksimal 5 kilometer, Sungai Bedog, Krasak, Bebeng sejauh maksimal 7 kilometer.

Pada sektor tenggara meliputi Sungai Woro sejauh maksimal 3 kilometer dan Sungai Gendol 5 kilometer. Sedangkan, lontaran material vulkanik bila terjadi letusan eksplosif dapat menjangkau radius 3 kilometer dari puncak.

BPPTKG mengimbau masyarakat agar tidak melakukan kegiatan apapun di daerah potensi bahaya.

Berdasarkan data Balai Penyelidikan dan Pengembangan Teknologi Kebencanaan Geologi (BPPTKG) kegempaan di Gunung Merapi tercatat 2 kali gempa awan panas guguran (APG), 22 kali gempa vulkanik dangkal (VTB), 181 kali gempa fase banyak (MP), 3 kali gempa frekuensi rendah (LF), 719 kali gempa guguran (RF) dan 6 kali gempa tektonik (TT)

"Intensitas kegempaan pada minggu ini masih cukup tinggi," bebernya.

Berdasarkan hasil pengematan tersebut, BPPTKG menyimpulkan aktivitas Gunung Merapi masih cukup tinggi berupa aktivitas erupsi efusif.

Potensi bahaya saat ini berupa guguran lava dan awan panas pada sektor selatan-barat daya meliputi Sungai Boyong sejauh maksimal 5 km, Sungai Bedog, Krasak, Bebeng sejauh maksimal 7 km.

Pada sektor tenggara meliputi Sungai Woro sejauh maksimal 3 km dan Sungai Gendol 5 km. Sedangkan lontaran material vulkanik bila terjadi letusan eksplosif dapat menjangkau radius 3 km dari puncak.

"Data pemantauan menunjukan suplai magma masih berlangsung yang dapat memicu terjadinya awan panas guguran di dalam daerah potensi bahaya," ungkapnya.

Bantuan Indonesia untuk Palestina Siap Disalurkan dari El Arish Mesir

Proses bongkar muat bantuan dari Indonesia untuk Palestina di di Pelabuhan El Arish, Mesir, hari Kamis, 15/02/2024/Ist

Proses debarkasi atau bongkar muat bantuan kemanusiaan untuk korban konflik di Gaza dari masyarakat Indonesia melalui KRI dr. Radjiman Wedyodiningrat-992 (KRI RJW-992) memasuki hari ketiga bertempat di Pelabuhan El Arish, Mesir, hari Kamis, 15/02/2024.

Pada hari Jumat, 16/02/2024, ratusan ton bantuan telah dikeluarkan secara bertahap dari KRI RJW-992 yang dilaksanakan oleh seluruh personel Satgas dibantu dengan pihak Dermaga El Arish Mesir.

Setelah dikelompokkan sesuai jenisnya dan di-wrapping, bantuan akan dibawa dengan truk trailer yang selanjutnya akan dikirimkan oleh pihak Egypt Red Crescent (ERC) melalui perbatasan Rafah, untuk disalurkan kepada korban konflik di Gaza.

Proses debarkasi telah berlangsung mulai tanggal 13 Februari dan diperkirakan akan selesai pada tanggal 16 Februari 2024 esok hari. Bantuan kemanusiaan yang disalurkan antara lain bahan makanan, alat medis, obat-obatan, selimut, tenda, dan barang logistik lainnya.

Pada kesempatan terpisah, Kepala Staf Angkatan Laut (KSAL) Laksamana TNI Dr. Muhammad Ali menyampaikan kepada seluruh prajurit Jalasena bahwa TNI AL berkomitmen untuk memberikan manfaat yang besar bagi masyarakat Indonesia maupun internasional termasuk dalam misi perdamaian dan kemanusiaan.

Bantuan kemanusiaan yang akan disalurkan antara lain berupa bahan makanan, selimut, pakaian, perlengkapan bayi, pakaian wanita, susu, tenda lapangan, perlengkapan kebersihan, air mineral, perlengkapan ibadah, dan lain sebagainya.

Setelah tahap bongkar muat barang tersebut selesai, bantuan akan dikirimkan oleh pihak Egypt Red Crescent (ERC) ke Gaza, Palestina, melalui perbatasan Rafah dan kemudian dibawa masuk dan disalurkan ke korban konflik di Gaza.

KRI dr. Radjiman Wedyodiningrat-992 tergabung dalam Satgas Port Visit Mesir 2024, yaitu misi kemanusiaan pengiriman bantuan untuk masyarakat sipil konban konflik di Gaza. Satgas ini dipimpin oleh Laksamana Pertama Sumarji Bimoaji.

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Penyebab Hasil Pilpres Tidak Sama Dengan Hasil Partai Bukan Anomali

Seorang warga menunjukkan jarinya yang sudah dicelupkan tinta usai melakukan pencoblosan Pemilu 2024 di TPS 26 Lingkungan Peresak Tempit, Ampenan Tengah, Mataram, NTB, Rabu (14/2/2024). ANTARA FOTO/Ahmad Subaidi/aww.

Hasil pemilu 2024 versi Quick Count sudah hampir 100% yang nantinya hasil ini tidak akan berbeda jauh dari hasil Real Count. Perbedaan jauh hasil perolehan suara pilpres dengan partai politik disimpulkan sebagai anomali yang disampaikan lembaga survey Indopol yang kemudian ditanggapi oleh Indo Barometer.

Anomali menurut mereka 'undecided voter', saat itu Indopol mendeskripsikan pemilih yang menyembunyikan pilihannya saat mereka melakukan survey di bulan Januari.

Kemudian ditanggapi oleh Indo barometer M Qodari klaim adanya anomali dalam survei capres-cawapres yang disampaikan lembaga survei dan konsultan politik Indopol terkait Pemilu 2024. Qodari menyebut persoalan anomali survei yang menunjukkan tingginya 'undecided voters' hanya menggambarkan kegagalan dalam melakukan survei.

Istilah anomali pun jadi trend setelah pencoblosan, berdasarkan perbedaan prosentase suara pilpres dengan suara partai. Terutama parpol PDIP dengan Capres no.03, yang diindikasi adanya pemilih bimbang 'undecided voter', sebagai faktor penyebab partai PDIP berhasil meraih suara tertinggi tidak diikuti oleh suara pasangan Ganjar-Mahfud.

Sebagian bahkan semua lembaga survey menyimpulkan faktor Presiden-ID lebih kuat dibanding Parpol-ID, kedekatan kader terhadap partainya.

Berdasarkan itulah terus disimpulkan hasil pilpres 2024 terjadi ANOMALI, termasuk oleh para elite partai mereka menyimpulkan hasil pemilu terjadi anomali.

Jika ini terus didengungkan sebagai penyebab suara partai berbeda dengan pilpres, maka mereka para elite politik gagal memahami partai politik, gabungan partai, konsolidasi. Karena gambaran data hasil tidak menunjukkan anomali.

Hasil Pemilu 2024 sangat menggambarkan peta kepartaian, tidak terjadi anomali. PDIP meraih suara tertinggi tapi bukan terbanyak, prosentasenya tidak jauh dengan prosentase suara paslon no.03 Ganjar-Mahfud. Jadi pemilih dari kader PDIP sebagian besar juga pemilih Presidennya.

Begitu pula dengan Prabowo, yang unggul namun partainya gerinda diperingkat ketiga versi Quick Count.

Jadi Prosentase pilpres 2024 sangat menggambarkan peta suara gabungan partai (koalisi).

Disini Aha Dua Permata tidak akan membahas lebih detail mengenai perbedaan jomplang prosentase pemilih presiden dan partainya.

Karena banyak faktor yang menyebabkan prosentase suara presiden unggul dan atau kalah, salah satunya masalah konsolidasi, masalah memahami pancasila, karena mengenal Pancasila sama dengan mengenal watak dan budaya bangsa Indonesia sebenarnya.

Aha Dua Permata adalah Golkar sejak Orde Baru (1989) sekalipun tidak masuk dalam partai golkar di luar kepartaian golkar. Tidak etis jika memaparkan lebih detail masalah penyebab suara partai dengan presiden berbeda jauh di tahun 2024 bukan disebabkan Anomali.

Bank of Russia retains key rate at 16% per annum

Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Moscow participates in a World Economic Forum event via video conference on Wednesday. MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/KREMLIN/REUTERS

The Bank of Russia decided to maintain the key rate at 16% per annum at its first meeting in 2024, indicating that it is too early to judge the sustainability of the emerging disinflationary trends.

"On 16 February 2024, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to keep the key rate at 16.00% per annum. Current inflationary pressures have eased compared with the autumn months but remain high. Domestic demand is still outstripping the capabilities to expand the production of goods and services. A judgement on the sustainable nature of emerging disinflationary trends would be premature. The Bank of Russia’s monetary policy is set to solidify disinflation processes unfolding in the national economy," the regulator said.

At the same time, the Bank of Russia raised its forecast for the average key rate for 2024 from 12.5-14.5% to 13.5-15.5%. In 2025, the rate is expected to be 8-10%, against the previous forecast of 7-9%, the forecast for 2026 reached 6-7%.

The Bank of Russia raised its forecast for Russian economic growth in 2024 from 0.5-1.5% to 1-2%. At the end of 2023, the country’s GDP grew by 3.6%, which is higher than the regulator’s forecasts. For 2025 and 2026, the regulator maintained its GDP growth forecast at 1-2% and 1.5-2.5%, respectively.

It was noted that the growth of the Russian economy in 2023 was higher than the regulator previously predicted. "The Russian economy grew at an annual rate of 3.6% in 2023, exceeding the Bank of Russia’s previous forecast. Given increased inflationary pressures, this means that domestic demand is still considerably outstripping the capabilities to expand the production of goods and services. At the same time, a growing propensity of households to save, a deceleration in consumer activity growth, and cooling demand for imports are increasingly working to put the economy back on a balanced growth path. This is set to be a protracted process," the regulator said.

The Bank of Russia added that "The return of inflation to target in 2024 and its further stabilisation close to 4% assume that tight monetary conditions will be maintained in the economy for a long period. According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast and given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 4.0-4.5% in 2024 and will stabilise close to 4% further on."

The Bank of Russia will hold its next key rate review meeting on March 22, 2024.

Central Bank chief says base-case scenario does not suggest economic recession

The Russian Central Bank’s base-case scenario does not suggest an economic recession, the regulator’s Governor Elvira Nabiullina said.

"Rates should be raised in proper time to avoid the recession risk, to make sure that the imbalance between growth of demand and the lagging growth of goods and services production demand does not lead to constant sharp boost of inflation that would be necessary to reduce then by higher and longer increases in rates, which could lead to recession. Our base-case scenario does not imply recession," she told a press conference after the regulator’s board meeting.

Putin hails globalization as anti-poverty weapon - 2021 article

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday credited globalization as a factor in having driven economic growth in developing countries over recent decades.

In a speech at a World Economic Forum event, Putin pointed to poverty-alleviation efforts that had benefited more than a billion people over that period.

Even with the deep economic crises that broke out in 2008 and 2020, the past 40 years have been "super successful" for the global economy, the Russian leader said. Since 1980, global per capita GDP has doubled in terms of real purchasing power parity, he told the World Economic Forum Virtual Event of the Davos Agenda.

Putin cited the case of China, where the number of people with lower incomes went down dramatically from 1990 down to recent years. He added:"This is definitely China's success."

In Russia, the number of those in poverty has fallen from 64 million in 1999 to about 5 million now, he said.

Russian experts agree that China's poverty-alleviation efforts have amounted to a great achievement.

Sergei Luzyanin, a professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations under the Russian Foreign Ministry, said China's poverty program has been implemented on an unprecedented scale.

"The growth of Chinese prosperity, the growth in GDP per capita and the rate of the implementation of the anti-poverty program are impressive and prove the high efficiency of the efforts undertaken by the Chinese leadership," Luzyanin said

A vital role

Oleg Timofeev, associate professor at the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, said China's fight against poverty has played a vital role in its economic development.

In Putin's first speech at the World Economic Forum Davos Agenda in 12 years, he underlined the need for nations and regional blocs to coordinate on policies in order to avoid conflicts amid global tensions.

He called for joint efforts to strengthen global institutions that bear responsibility for ensuring stability and security in the world and for making the rules of conduct for the global economy and trade.

"It is obvious that the era associated with attempts to build a centralized and unipolar world order is over," Putin said.

He said different regions of the world have emerged with their own political and social characteristics during their economic development.

However, trade barriers, sanctions and other restrictions are being used by some countries to pressure others that do not agree to be "obedient", Putin said.

Want to Get 'Radicalized', See Russia : Scott Ritter Weighs in on Tucker’s Eye-Opening Moscow Tour

Fox News host-turned independent journalist Tucker Carlson said he felt “radicalized” and “legitimately angry” at America’s leaders after visiting a supermarket in the Russian capital. Former US Marine and UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter told Sputnik why Tucker could have experienced something similar in nearly any major Russian city.

The knives are out for Tucker Carlson in the Washington establishment and the legacy media as he continues to debunk myths and stereotypes about Russia with a series of videos about life in the capital in the midst of the West’s sanctions ‘total war’.

In the latest of a series of clips posted to his internet channel about his experiences from his eight-day stay in Russia, Carlson praised Moscow’s grocery prices. “I went from amused to legitimately angry,” Carlson said after purchasing a week’s worth of groceries for the equivalent of about $105 US.

“Coming to a Russian grocery store, the ‘heart of evil’, and seeing what things cost and how people live, it will radicalize you against our leaders. That’s how I feel, anyway – radicalized,” Carlson said after dragging US leaders through the mud for “wrecking people’s lives” through “filth and crime and inflation.”

The independent conservative journalist’s comments sparked immediate outrage from detractors, with neocon Republican lawmaker Thom Tillis echoing Hillary Clinton, blasting Carlson as a “useful idiot” and mocking him for suggesting Russia “is so much better than the US with all those cheap groceries and lavish subway stations.”

Another neocon group, ‘Republicans Against Trump’, blasted Carlson as a “Kremlin propagandist” and accused him of running a program called “Russia is awesome, the US is crap.”

The hate was echoed by establishment media, with the USA Today publishing a column suggesting Tucker should do “everything he can to get his followers to move to Russia.” MSNBC host Chris Hayes immediately jumped in to suggest that the discrepancy in grocery prices is the result of America being a “rich country” and that “if you are an american [sic] and go to a country that is poorer, things will be cheaper there.” Others suggested Tucker’s experiences were unique to Moscow, and that he would see something different if he went to “real Russia” outside the “Potemkin village” Russian capital.

“It's like a modern day equivalent of John Reed's classic ‘10 Days That Shook the World’ – ‘8 Days That Radicalized Tucker Carlson’,” former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter told Sputnik of Carlson’s eye-opening experiences during his visit to Russia.

“We all saw the interview with Vladimir Putin, over 1 billion of us, and we've seen Tucker Carlson's video clips of his experience in Moscow, the Moscow Metro, shopping in a Moscow market, a visit to the Russian McDonald's [equivalent]. Everything that Tucker Carlson said is true, 100%. The Metro is an amazing place, clean, it's a work of art. There is no food shortage in Moscow. Yes, Russian fast food is not only as tasty as its American equivalent, but because of the GMO laws, yes, Tucker, you should have asked that question, healthier,” Ritter said.

Pointing to those dishing out of hate Carlson’s way and claiming his experiences were somehow “fake,” Ritter, who has traveled to Russia extensively over the past year, Ritter assured that he has “been to the rest of Russia,” and could confirm that what the former Fox News host saw in Moscow could be observed in other Russian cities as well.

“In May, when I made my first visit to Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the first city I landed in wasn't Moscow. It was Novosibirsk. Now is Novosibirsk is brilliantly lit up as Moscow? No, it's not a city of 13 million. It's not the capital of the Russian Federation. It's not the center of commerce for Russia. But Novosibirsk is the third largest city in Russia and the largest developing economy. You know, when you go to a supermarket in Novosibirsk, it's every bit as well stocked as those you will find in Moscow. Why? Because Russia is a modern state. Russia is a state that has the ability to transport food products throughout the great expanse of the nation. Russia is not Moscow. Russia is a nation of over 150 million people who live with the same level of modernity as the rest of the world,” Ritter said.

“In Novosibirsk, I saw a people who live their lives just like everybody else – [with] a public transportation system that's clean, efficient, streets that are clean, efficient. Why? Because throughout Russia, the Russian people care about their cities as much as the residents of Moscow care about theirs. Russia is a nation, not a city. And the Russians love their country,” he added.

“Novosibirsk is not unique,” Ritter emphasized, saying similar things can be seen in Ekaterinburg, Russia’s fourth-largest city, and in Irkutsk – another city in Siberia which he traveled to.

“If you want to get radicalized, don't just limit your visit to Moscow. See Russia, all of Russia. And what you find out is that what Tucker Carlson experienced in Moscow is an experience that can be replicated again and again and again over a multitude of time zones through a tremendous diversity of cultures. If you want to get radicalized, visit Russia, the real Russia,” Ritter summed up.

West’s colonial past, present 'disgraceful,' Putin says

©Kristina Kormilitsyna/TASS

The West’s colonial policy was supposed to remain just a page in its disgraceful history, but continues to resort to similar practices even today, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

"Neo-colonialism is a disgraceful heritage of the centuries-long age of plunder and exploitation of the people of Africa, Asia and Latin America, as well as other regions of the planet. We see its aggressive manifestations in the collective West’s attempts to retain its dominance at any cost, to economically subjugate other countries, to strip them of sovereignty, to impose alien values and cultural traditions," he said in his welcoming speech to the "For the freedom of nations" international forum.

According to the Russian leader, "such a policy has become one of the main destabilizing factors in international relations, a barrier to the development of humanity."

Putin pointed out that Russia did a lot to crush the foundation of the colonial system, to support the national liberation movements. It provided serious aid for young independent states in ensuring security, stabilizing the economy and resolving pressing social and humanitarian issues.

"Today, we are ready to unite efforts in our fight for true freedom and justice. For progress for all countries and nations, for the establishment of a democratic, multipolar world, built upon the principles of international law, respect for each other’s legitimate interests, mutual trust and creative cooperation," the Russian president said.

He stated his certainty that meetings in this format will become regular and will contribute to the deepening of a wide dialogue and partnership ties, to developing joint responses to global challenges.

Putin’s greeting speech was read out by Andrey Klimov, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Houthis say they fired at ‘British ship’ as US keeps up campaign

A US navy cutter can be seen next to a vessel reportedly carrying a shipment of Iranian weapons destined for the Houthis which was seized on January 28. (File/AFP)

An explosion was reported near a vessel off the coast of Yemen, two maritime security agencies said on Thursday, the latest in a series of incidents that have disrupted global shipping.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia said they fired missiles at a “British ship” off the country’s coast on Thursday, the latest in a series of incidents that have disrupted global shipping.

The blast east of Yemen's Aden came after the United States on Thursday claimed (which is still disputed) to have seized an Iranian arms shipment in January destined for Yemen's Houthi rebels, which had been disrupting commercial vessels on the main shipping route through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. for months. .

On Thursday, a ship reported "an explosion in close proximity to the vessel" east of Yemen's Aden, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said, adding the vessel was sailing to its next port of call.

Security firm Ambrey said a "bulk carrier was targeted by an explosive projectile whilst transiting" east of Aden.

The Houthi attacks have prompted some shipping companies to detour around southern Africa to avoid the Red Sea, which normally carries about 12 per cent of global maritime trade.

The Houthis carried “out a military operation targeting a British ship... while it was sailing through the Gulf of Aden,” the militia’s military spokesman Yahya Saree said on social media Thursday, claiming the missiles had made a “direct” hit.

Earlier, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported “an explosion in close proximity” to a ship east of Yemen’s Aden. It said the vessel was safe and sailing to its next port of call.

The Houthis, who control much of war-torn Yemen, have been attacking shipping since November in a campaign they say is in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war.

CENTCOM said US naval forces boarded a boat heading for Yemen and seized Iranian-made missile components and other weaponry in an operation in which two commandos went missing.

After the statement of CENTOM was published, one day later the Houthis responded to the British ship. So the weapons confiscation claimed by the US is still subject to validity. Because the Houthis are still capable of carrying out ship attacks in the Red Sea

Abdul Malik Al-Houthi accused the United States of launching around 40 strikes this week, most of them on Hodeida.

He said such retaliatory attacks would fail to deter his forces from striking vessels if a ceasefire in Gaza is not reached.

He also warned the European Union against being drawn into the confrontation after member states last month gave initial backing to a naval mission to protect ships from attacks.

“European countries should not listen to the Americans or the British, and should not involve themselves in matters that do not concern them or affect them,” the Houthi leader said.