Aha Dua Permata: 'China's support to Central Asia countries represents a threat to the entire region in the medium term'

Wednesday, 19 July 2023

'China's support to Central Asia countries represents a threat to the entire region in the medium term'

From left, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rakhmon and Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov at the summit with leaders of post-Soviet countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in Astana on October 14, 2022. KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE / STRINGER / AFP

On the occasion of a series of regional summits held between October 12 and October 14, the leaders of several countries (including Qatar, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Iran, Iraq, Belarus and Pakistan) as well as Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin all found themselves visiting Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan. It was a new diplomatic role that Kazakhstan had been vividly dreaming of playing on the international scene: that of a bridge between Eurasia and the Middle East.

But behind the scenes, another tectonic shift is at work, both geopolitical and economic: the earthquake triggered by the war in Ukraine, which is also reshuffling the deck in Central Asia. It represents a risk of destabilization for the countries in question, but also an opportunity for them to become more independent.

Until now, Russia had safeguarded the military security of the region through the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. But here is the problem: Weakened by the war in Ukraine, Moscow is no longer able to act as a law enforcement officer between all of the former Soviet republics. Hence the resurgence of old conflicts in recent weeks, notably between Armenia and Azerbaijan and between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Hence the countries hope, too, for their emancipation from Moscow. In Astana on October 14, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon declared that "Russia must not ignore the interests of the small countries of Central Asia, as it did during the Soviet era." His Kazakh counterpart, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, did not even come to welcome Mr. Putin personally at the airport – unimaginable even a year ago!

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These desires are not new to Kazakhstan, which does not recognize Russia's annexation of territories in Ukraine and welcomes Russian men fleeing the draft. The country, which, like Ukraine, experienced a terrible famine under the Soviet yoke, has for years been pursuing a so-called "multi-dimensional" policy: cultivating good relationships with Moscow as well as with Beijing, Ankara, Washington and Brussels. This has always annoyed Russia. Since February, some of President Putin's most zealous supporters have been threatening to "denazify" Kazakhstan, as they're doing Ukraine.

Beijing preemptively drew a line in the sand: For his first foreign trip since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, Chinese President Xi Jinping went to Astana on September 14, where he declared his support for the "national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity" of Kazakhstan. In short, Beijing will intervene if Moscow sets foot in the country. It's an unlikely scenario, to be sure. "But these comments by Xi Jinjing mark a major turning point," explained Annette Bohr from the London-based think tank Chatham House.