Thursday 20 April 2023

Sudan's ceasefire only lasts a few minutes

Sudan's ceasefire only lasts a few minutes

Sudan's ceasefire only lasts a few minutes










This is the sound of a 24-hour ceasefire in Sudan being shattered, just minutes after it came into effect.


The truce, agreed by the country's warring generals under U.S. pressure, was intended to provide some respite to civilians now living under the shadow of warplanes.







Instead, shortly after it was due to take hold at 6pm local time on Tuesday (April 18), tank fire and loud shooting could be heard in Khartoum.


Several witnesses reported a large ground army entering the capital from the east.


"We've not had any confirmation or indication that this is holding."


At a briefing shortly after the deadline, U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric described fighting in Khartoum with jets, heavy artillery and small arms.


"It is creating a climate that is extremely dangerous for civilians and by definition, for our staff, humanitarian staff, diplomatic staff, and that's why we continue to engage with the parties in order to try to get a solid cessation of hostilities."


On Tuesday the U.N.'s aid chief said they were receiving reports of "attacks and sexual violence against aid workers."


The World Food Programme suspended operations after three of its employees were killed.


The violence erupted on Saturday (April 15) out of a power struggle between Sudan's military leader and his deputy.


General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan heads a ruling council installed after a 2021 military coup and the 2019 ouster of longtime autocratic leader Omar al-Bashir.


General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, is his number two and also leads the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.


Both sides, the army and the RSF, issued statements accusing each other of failing to respect the ceasefire.







The fighting has derailed a transition to civilian rule and triggered what the U.N. described as a humanitarian catastrophe, including the near collapse of the health system.


At least 185 people have been killed and many more injured.


The conflict between the military and the RSF has once again derailed Sudan’s transition to democratic rule after decades of dictatorship and civil war.


A popular uprising four years ago helped depose long-time autocrat Omar Al-Bashir, but Burhan and Dagalo allied to carry out a 2021 coup. Both generals have a long history of human rights abuses, and their forces have cracked down on pro-democracy activists.


Under international pressure, Burhan and Dagalo recently agreed to a framework agreement with political parties and pro-democracy groups. But the signing was repeatedly delayed as tensions rose over the integration of the RSF into the armed forces and the future chain of command — tensions that exploded into violence Saturday.



Why Sudan’s transition from military rule to civilian-led democracy may have been doomed from the start



With at least 185 people killed during clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in recent days, the dreams of shift from military rule to civilian-led democracy have turned to dust, revealing that the transition plan was likely doomed from the start.


It is a far cry from the events of 2019, when the very forces now fighting one another worked together to oust the country’s autocratic ruler, Omar Al-Bashir. Analysts at that time described Sudan’s nascent transition to civilian-led democracy as a “glimmer of hope.”


“Most people are ignoring the ways in which the constitutional declaration of August 2019 set in place an unsustainable tension between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces, both of which were recognized as official armed forces of Sudan,” Eric Reeves, an academic with more than 25 years of experience researching the country, told Arab News


Combo image showing Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (left) greeting a crowd in Khartoum's twin city of Omdurman on June 29, 2019 and RSF chief Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo greeting his supporters in Aprag village outside of Khartoum on June 22, 2019. (AFP & Reuters)


Now at loggerheads, Gen. Fattah Al-Burhan, head of the Armed Forces, leads the country’s transitional governing Sovereign Council, while his former deputy, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, leads the RSF.


“The problem with this is you can’t have two armies and two competing generals in one desperate country and expect this (peaceful transition), especially with so many unhappy civilians who experienced catastrophic decline in the economy, who are suffering from a great deal of malnutrition and unemployment, and the list goes on,” said Reeves









Who Is Battling for Control and Why It Matters



The clashes have pitted a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces against the Sudanese Army, reflecting a longstanding rivalry between Sudan’s two top generals who have been vying for dominance.


The eruption of violence on Saturday in Sudan’s capital and other parts of the country has dashed hopes that civilians could soon take leadership of a democratic government, the goal of mass protests four years ago. In 2019, Sudanese protesters and the military toppled the country’s authoritarian leader, President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, offering hope to similar movements in Africa and the Arab world.


After Mr. al-Bashir’s rule ended, the military signed a power-sharing agreement, but then took over with a coup in 2021. One of Africa’s largest countries, where the United States and its allies have tried to aid a transition to civilian control, is now reeling from a new crisis that many fear could become full-blown civil war.



Where is the fighting?



Most of the fighting appears to be taking place in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, but there have been clashes reported across the vast country — Africa’s third-largest by area, with more than 45 million people.


The civilian death toll from the fighting rose to at least 180 on Monday, with more than 1,800 civilians and combatants injured, according to Volker Perthes, the United Nations envoy to Sudan.


In Khartoum, the fighting has left many people stranded at home without electricity or water, and doctors and hospitals say they are struggling to cope. Fighting has been reported near the presidential palace, and it was still not clear who — if anyone — was in control of the country.



Who are the rival generals?



The leader of one of the two main rival factions is Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, a powerful military commander who has for years been a de facto leader of Sudan.


Little known before 2019, General al-Burhan had been closely aligned with Sudan’s longtime ruler, Mr. al-Bashir, and rose to power in the tumultuous aftermath of the popular uprisings that led to the ousting of Mr. al-Bashir.















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