Aha Dua Permata: Zelensky's Magic Failed: US Congress Rejects Throwing Good Money After Bad

Wednesday, 13 December 2023

Zelensky's Magic Failed: US Congress Rejects Throwing Good Money After Bad

U.S. Republican Senator from Alabama Tommy Tuberville © Getty Images / Alex Wong

Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington DC has fallen short of convincing US lawmakers to approve $61 billion in funding for Ukraine this year, as per the US press.

Zelensky's Tuesday meeting with US lawmakers reportedly came in sharp contrast with his December 2022 triumphal visit, when he was welcomed by a standing ovation in the House and was gifted an encased American flag that flew over the US Capitol during his visit.

This time, Zelensky got a chillier welcome at a close-door meeting after which House Speaker Mike Johnson told the press: "What the Biden administration seems to be asking for is billions of additional dollars with no appropriate oversight, no clear strategy to win and none of the answers that I think the American people are owed." As a result, media outlet Bloomberg did not rule out Ukraine failing to get any more funding this year.

In Ukraine, the risk isn’t stalemate. It’s defeat. It springs from two more immediate causes. One is opposition from House Republicans to further U.S. assistance. The GOP lawmakers are holding future weapons packages hostage to the unrelated issue of blocking migrants from illegally crossing the southern border. The other is aid from the European Union that is imperiled by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

House Republicans stand in the way of the Biden administration’s proposed $61 billion package of arms and other help that is critical to Kyiv’s ability to hold the line against Russian forces on the battlefield. Orban, exercising Hungary’s veto as an E.U. member, is blocking $54 billion in budget support that would help pay Ukraine’s bills through 2027. He is also impeding talks that would lead to Ukraine’s eventual membership in the 27-nation group.

Without those infusions of cash, arms and munitions, even the disappointing status quo over the past year, in which Ukraine has not managed to recapture much territory, is unlikely to endure.

Zelensky’s pleas fell flat, at least for now, with congressional Republicans, who are insisting that additional aid to Ukraine can come only with a clampdown on migration at the United States’ southern border. After meeting with Mr. Zelensky, Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House, said his skepticism had not changed.

Mr. Johnson said money for Ukraine required more oversight of spending, and “a transformative change” in security at the U.S. border with Mexico. “Thus far, we’ve gotten neither,” he said.

Yermak, a top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told a Washington forum last week that the “big risk” is that Kyiv’s troops could “lose this war.”

"Ukraine is losing all along the front," Dr. Jack Rasmus, a professor of economics and politics at St. Mary's College in California, told Sputnik's Critical Hour podcast. "They're being pushed back. They're not being provided because the US simply can't provide all the ammunition and weapons. The days are numbered."

"There's coup talk in Kiev. Zelensky is feuding with his generals. He tried to fire Zaluzhny in July and they told him, go to hell. The mayor of Kiev has come out against Zelensky. Zelensky's days are numbered and everybody knows that. And everybody knows that there's no new offensive that Ukraine can put up. So the days are numbered there. And throwing bad money after bad is pretty obvious. But Biden is desperate. He's got to get some money out of Congress to at least get through the next couple of months because they will run out of money for Ukraine in the next couple of months. And he's got to get them over the hump until February."

Rasmus believes that at the end of the day, Biden will make concessions concerning border reforms demanded by Republicans in order to ram the Ukraine funding bill through Congress. However, the academic expects that the final package would be far less than the $61 billion initially requested by Joe Biden.

The next year is going to become a year of "finger pointing" as Ukraine is set to lose big and neither Democrats nor Republicans want to parent this defeat.

"What's going on is the Republicans want to end the war, and they can they just choke it off. But Biden will say: 'Oh, look, you lost Ukraine'. But they'll say: 'Oh, no, you lost it. You lost it on your watch'. So, finger pointing time is going on. And of course, finger pointing time is going on big time in Ukraine. And that's a sure sign that the whole policy and strategy is bust. And it's just a question of the turn of events in 2024 and who gets blamed, but they're going to both be pointing fingers at each other as to who's going to be blamed."

Per Rasmus, the US government has a lot on its plate at home, and time is ripe for solving burning domestic issues. He drew attention to the fact that the US is "running chronic trillion and a half deficits every year."

"Why do we have the big gap?" he said. "Well, because we're throwing $1 trillion a year at the defense establishment. The Pentagon gets like $800 [billion] and then $340 billion more for other things. The war is costing $100 billion, $150 billion. Who knows how much now for Israel and Taiwan?"

Presently, the Pentagon has just $4.6 billion in additional authority to provide weapons from its stockpiles to Ukraine, but just $1 billion to replace them, the US media has said, adding that it's not enough to support the Kiev regime's military.

Meanwhile, next year’s €50 billion ($54 billion) in Ukraine assistance from Europe is also in limbo amid opposition from Hungary. Europe is also failing to deliver on its earlier commitment to help get 1 million rounds of 155 mm ammo for Ukraine by next spring. As per Reuters, European countries have so far placed orders for just 60,000 artillery shells under the scheme through the bloc's European Defense Agency (EDA). The small volume of orders highlights "bigger struggles" that the EU is facing while trying to deliver on its pledge, according to the media outlet.

Ukraine was never going to win – US senator

Ukraine always faced the prospect of losing the conflict with Russia in the event that Washington cut off its aid, US Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville has said.

His comments came after the US Senate last week blocked a bill by President Joe Biden that was intended to allocate a further $60 billion in funding to Kiev, on top of the $110 billion already spent. Republicans opposed to the package have demanded tougher immigration control on the US-Mexico border in exchange for approving the bill, rejected by the White House.

Speaking to CNN on Tuesday, Tuberville was asked whether cutting off funding to Kiev could result in Ukraine being defeated. The senator replied that he personally “never thought they can win to begin with,” especially with the way the US “eased into” the conflict.

Tuberville also dismissed claims by Kiev’s backers that Russia will advance elsewhere into western Europe once it defeats Ukraine’s forces. The Republican argued that Moscow “can’t beat Ukraine on the eastern side,” and questioned how it was expected to push further across Europe. “I’ve never believed that scenario. I think it’s a good selling point to send more money,” Tuberville suggested. The US has so far provided Ukraine with an estimated $111 billion in military and economic assistance since the outbreak of its conflict with Russia in February 2022. While Washington has increasingly warned that funds are beginning to run out, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has nevertheless continued to insist on receiving more money.

The Ukrainian leader traveled to Washington on Tuesday to hold a series of meetings with top US officials, in an attempt to save Biden’s $60 billion aid package. However, Zelensky appears to have failed to convince key Republicans to change their mind about opposing the bill. Instead, some senators left the meeting while describing it as “the same old stuff” and “very scripted.”

Biden has continued to urge Congress to approve the funding package and has also pledged an additional $200 million in emergency military aid for Kiev through the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows him to send weapons from US stocks without congressional approval.

Meanwhile, Moscow has brushed off Zelensky’s latest visit to Washington as inconsequential for the outcome of the conflict. Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, claimed that “everyone is tired of the Kievan beggarman.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has also stressed that no amount of money would change the situation on the front lines.