For a continent so dependent on specific trade routes, Europe has short-sightedly used sanctions as a weapon against nations otherwise able to host alternative trade routes, hurting itself in the process, a consultant said.
Recently, the Yemeni Shiiite militant group Ansarallah, which controls most of Yemen, have declared that Israel-linked ships will not be allowed to pass the Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow strait that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Yemen and the Indian Ocean beyond. Other ships, they said, will still have free passage.
However, in response to the Yemeni declaration and to news that some ships with tenuous links to Israel had also been attacked, several major shipping companies, including Maersk, Hapag Lloyd, MSC, and oil giant BP have decided to stop using the waterway entirely.
Some 12% of seaborne petroleum and 8% of liquified natural gas (LNG) trade pass through the strait every year, part of $700 billion in annual trade that uses the waterway.
The anti-Israel blockade is part of Ansarallah’s response to the Israeli bombing campaign and invasion of the Gaza Strip, which has killed more than 20,000 people since early October and displaced almost the entire population of 2.3 million Palestinians. The group has also fired ballistic missiles at the southern Israeli city of Eilat.
In response to Ansarallah’s declaration, the Pentagon announced on Monday the creation of a multinational task force dubbed Operation Prosperity Guardian to secure Red Sea trade for Israeli ships and restore the confidence of other cargo vessels to use the waterway. The task force includes the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the Seychelles, and Spain, as well as the US.
The US has long opposed the rise of Ansarallah, taking part in the Saudi-led coalition war against the group that killed a quarter-million people in Yemen beginning in 2015 and devastated what was already one of the world’s poorest countries. The UN brokered a ceasefire last year, but talks on a more permanent peace and to establish the legitimate government of Yemen have been slow-going.
Paul Goncharoff, a businessman and chief manager of consulting firm Goncharoff, LLC, told Sputnik on Tuesday that “Father Christmas may not arrive” on time in the European Union this year, as the West has already antagonized all of the nations through which an alternative trade corridor might run.
He said the situation in the Red Sea “is extremely serious and has already delayed shipments from Asia to Europe for the Christmas Festive season,” he observed. “It impacts many delivery companies - a lot of Europeans will find their Christmas and New Year presents delayed this year, likewise for regular deliveries. Perishable items will be especially affected. There are likely to be significant insurance claims.”
Goncharoff said that redirecting freight traffic from the Red Sea to other routes would take time and not solve the present problem of delays.
“Europe has blocked routes via Russia, and the alternative INSTC [International North-South Transport Corridor] is not fully ready. Shipments around the Cape [of Good Hope] take rather longer and will not arrive until well after Christmas. As this is a seasonal market, many of these deliveries will lose their deadlines. Christmas Day is next Monday, deliveries cannot be made in time for that timescale.”
“The US and EU at present have no other alternatives as they have sanctioned Russia and Iran. They could have diverted ships via the Gulf and north via Iran, and then via Azerbaijan and Turkey to Europe's Black Sea Ports - however that route is now cut off. Or, they could have sent via Iran to Russia at Astrakhan and then over to the Baltic States, Poland and Belarus, but these borders are now closed to Russian and Belarussian traffic,” he explained.
Goncharoff said that compared to the March 2021 grounding of the container ship Ever Given in the Suez Canal for six days, the present situation “will have a longer and possibly long-term impact.”
“The Ever Given situation was just one ship, this situation is an ongoing conflict. Unless it is resolved this could take weeks or even months to resolve,” he said.
“Russia could play a role; however, its access to ports to Europe are sanctioned,” he noted. “In cutting the country off, the EU has limited their supply chains. When those come under unforeseen stress, the perils of the EU having limited access becomes apparent. It is a classic example of how the EU has not fully comprehended the impact of sanctions that they have imposed. Now it means that Father Christmas may either not arrive, or be delayed this year, at least in the UK and Europe.”
The Ansar Allah movement (commonly known as the Houthis) in Yemen has begun attacking cargo ships passing through the Gulf of Aden that are either bound for Israel or are linked to Israeli companies.
Its move comes as the Israeli military continues to flatten the Gaza Strip in its quest to wipe out Hamas, killing thousands of Palestinian civilians in the process.
The Houthis have warned that they will stop their attacks only when Israel ends its military operation, connecting the maritime attacks to the Israeli campaign in the Gaza Strip.
While several shipping companies have already decided to steer their vessels clear of the Gulf of Aden, the United States has sent a carrier strike group into the region, with the option of strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen apparently on the table.
Even though the US military seems ready and willing to clash with the Houthis, the United States’ policy towards Ansar Allah and Yemen is not exactly clear, explained Bader Al-Saif, founding president at Al-Saif Consulting and an assistant professor at Kuwait University.
As Al-Saif pointed out, the war in Yemen between the Houthis and the Yemeni government backed by a Saudi-led coalition “actually started during the Obama administration” who at the time “supported the Saudi front.”
“And then came the Trump administration with an FTO terrorist designation for the Houthis. And then came the Biden administration that removed that designation. So it's kind of confusing where the US stands on this issue,” he explained.
Having suggested that a US-led naval mission is unlikely to “solve the issue at hand,” Al-Saif argued that the United States needs to “go after violent non-state actors” and to “be clear about their intentions.”
“They need to go back to the root cause that the Houthis are using, which is the Gaza war, who are claiming that their conduct is because of the Gaza war,” he added. “Everyone in the world has been calling for a ceasefire. The only two or three countries that have not include the US and Israel.”
Al-Saif also warned that if the United States “escalates against the Houthis now, that's going to lead to another wave in expanding the war” in Yemen, and no one – “neither the US, nor the Houthis, nor the Saudis” – really wants that.
“So everyone is minding his own turf and trying to play a tit-for-tat approach, one by one. So if something happens here, something will happen there. We've seen this on various fronts outside Gaza. We've seen it in southern Lebanon. We've seen it in attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria,” Al-Saif surmised.
Meanwhile, Hasan Unal, professor of political science and international relations at Ankara Baskent University, pointed out that an attempt by the United States to “mess” with Yemen “would basically open up Pandora's box,” considering the likelihood of Houthi’s ally Iran becoming involved in such a scenario.
“Whether it is going to be a military operation against the Houthis to remove them from power, then that would require Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates not only consent, but their actual collaboration. And any such operation would bring Iran into the picture, because, after all, the Houthi regime is one of Iran's main allies in the region. So it is a very iffy situation,” Unal remarked.
According to the professor, it remains to be seen exactly “what shape the US action is going to take.” “So whether or not countries like Turkiye would take part in such an operation, all is iffy basically,” he added.
US worried over growing cost of deflecting Houthi attacks - Report
The Pentagon is “increasingly alarmed” not only about the threat of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea but also the “growing cost” of rebuffing those the assaults, reports US news website Politico, citing unnamed US officials.
The US Navy has deployed missiles at $2.1m each to destroy “unsophisticated Houthi drones” estimated at a few thousand dollars each.
“The cost offset is not on our side,” one unnamed Pentagon official was quoted as saying.
Over the past two months, the US Navy has reportedly shot down at least 38 drones and multiple missiles in the Red Sea as the Houthis stepped up their attacks in protest of the ongoing Israeli bombardment in Gaza that has killed almost 20,000 Palestinians.
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